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Giuturna

Ranked battle - Career simulator

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[HALON]
[HALON]
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Hi captains, I was trying to create an excel file to answer this question: if my ranked battle win rate is 49,9 % and I start from rank 15, how many battle in average should I play to achieve Rank 1 ? Those values are only indicative and should be the input of the whole calculation process.

 

I tought it was an easy model to develop but I was overcome by the complexities of the calculations as there are several variables to account to calculate the advancement in the ranks.

 

Is there any NERD willing to help ? Experts in maths and statistics would help !!

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[CATS]
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A lot.

 

It is hard to compute since you have fixed ranks and the rule that you do not lose a star when having most XP on a losing team.

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[H_FAN]
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I guess you have to take into account somehow for the chances if u lose that you end up in first spot that keep your star in 1/7. But as some ranks are irrevocable it is also a factor.

But I have seen graphs on how many games it should take on average with a certain win percentage. 

 

I am not sure how these have taken into account the factor that if you have a WR of 60% vs 50 % in a simulation that you are inherently better and therefor have a greater chance of ending at 1 spot.

Try google after them as these have been calculated already. One other factor is the relative strength of players during the season. If you are just interested in playing to say rank 10 for rewards as I do I often wait until later in season when many skilled players have ranked out. Last season I had great statistics in my Alabama as I just grinded down a little in the end and then were stronger vs the players then in the 11-17 region, so while I know you are just after a simple method, it is reasonable also to plan how far you want to reach and when in the season. I seldom play at the beginning much.

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[ADRIA]
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With simply having any WR that's below 50% you won't reach Rank 1, not in a world where wins and defeats are weighed equally (+1 star / -1 star)

In fact, if you go by having 49.9% WR what you get is you losing 1 star every 500 battles played

 

Of course there are the failproof systems like "save a star" and "irrevocable ranks" (which would be more or less problematic to calculate in) so if you are determined enough even with 40% WR you eventually would get there

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[CATS]
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You basicly have to consider all possible variations and their chance on how to get to rank 1. That is a lot of computing (you could manage it with 500 and 50.000 games with rougly the same WR). And that is under the assumption that you have a fixed value for keeping a star after loss (realisticly, the chance will go down as you will go up the ranks).

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An additional variable to the calculation that really you can't factor in is the team makeup, sometimes you get lumbered with some utter spuds/afk/crashed/campers and other times you get carried by some super monster who's sacrificed a few virgins to the RNG gods and can't miss.

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2 hours ago, BeauNidl3 said:

An additional variable to the calculation that really you can't factor in is the team makeup

 Its already factored in as a %WR (average chance to win) in the OP thread. How did he assumed its going to be 49,9% though?

 

3 hours ago, Giuturna said:

I start from rank 15, how many battle in average should I play to achieve Rank 1

 

There is big difference between ranks 15 to10, and 10 to 1. Namely; rank 10 and below use tier 10 ships, which was never done before. So even if your assumption of 49,9% WR may be spot on perfect for tier 8 ships, how do you even assume your %WR for using tier 10 ships. Have you actually somehow played ranked season using T 10 ships (and I don't mean tier 10 matches after reaching rank one).

 

3 hours ago, Giuturna said:

I tought it was an easy model to develop but I was overcome by the complexities of the calculations as there are several variables to account to calculate the advancement in the ranks.

 

You would need to provide at least % chance for not losing a star, but there are numerous issues with the premise of the analysis:

 

- asumption that %WR will stay constant over time ( this value depends on how long ranked was going on, and how high rank you currently are on

- chance to not lose a star behaves similar to %WR so it is not going to be constant value.

- analysis can not be made for multiple ship types combined; some ships can have higher %WR but are more likely to lose a star on defeat, while other win less but will keep star more often

- "fake" margin for error -> assumed %WR will still be modified by losing game at rank 10 and not losing a star due to irrevocable position, this will inflate number of matches and drop %WR, but it will have no influence on chance of actually reaching rank 1 (you could lose 1000 matches at rank 10 and then easily progress to get rank 1 with extremelly low win rate)

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[DC-DK]
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we had a guy in our clan determined to reach rank 1 last season 590 battles reached rank 2. at a point the poor guy only needed 1 star, then a losing streak all the way down to rank 10. 

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[CAIN]
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Ranked is going to be very interesting if players already calculate how many games they need to get carried to rank 1.^^

 

 

Personally, i wouldn't worry too much beforehand.

Play every game without thinking about losing the star or winning, it'll only achieve the opposite. 

Just play the objectives, don't suicide, don't be a hero but a team player instead and you'll make it way faster to rank 1 than when you obsess about stars and victories.  

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[BGNAV]
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5 hours ago, Giuturna said:

Hi captains, I was trying to create an excel file to answer this question: if my ranked battle win rate is 49,9 % and I start from rank 15, how many battle in average should I play to achieve Rank 1 ? Those values are only indicative and should be the input of the whole calculation process.

 

I tought it was an easy model to develop but I was overcome by the complexities of the calculations as there are several variables to account to calculate the advancement in the ranks.

 

Is there any NERD willing to help ? Experts in maths and statistics would help !!

i dont want to be rude, but with your TXs and your performance in them...i will say never.

but ofc if u listen ur teammates in premier and 10 days before the end of the season your something like rank4-3-4-3-4 yup you will rank out

but if after 600battles you are still out of premier...better w8 3m for the next season.

Shima is capable ship to save you tons of stars, if cap and manage to lend 1-2 good spreads.

You are in second fastest DD (after Grozo) so use that and the concealment to farm defense and cap points.

 

Just play the objective, and you may end up with WR higher than your predicted 49.9

 

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[TOXIC]
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5 hours ago, Giuturna said:

Hi captains, I was trying to create an excel file to answer this question: if my ranked battle win rate is 49,9 % and I start from rank 15, how many battle in average should I play to achieve Rank 1 ? Those values are only indicative and should be the input of the whole calculation process.

 

I tought it was an easy model to develop but I was overcome by the complexities of the calculations as there are several variables to account to calculate the advancement in the ranks.

 

Is there any NERD willing to help ? Experts in maths and statistics would help !!

A bit of a useless question, because it misses an extremely important factor: "how often are you 1st place on defeats?"

If you somehow managed to be the ultimate XP farmer that's always #1 when defeated, the answer would be [number of stars needed to get from your starting rank to R1]/49,9% (rounded up)- since you'd never lose a star. Were you, however, to never get the first place, the answer would be "pretty much never", because at 49,9% winrate you'd be losing more stars than gaining. If you ever managed a R1 with such a low WR% (and without saving stars for being #1), it would basically mean that you had even lower WR% but then, at the end, got extremely lucky or improved enough to actually pull yourself above 50% - for long enough to get to R1 but not early enough to lift your WR% above 49,9.

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[NOCAP]
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Well... if you compare it to last ranked season... 49,9% will be reached with 500-560 ish battles...

 

But you also have 50% players with over 700 battles and 49% with less then 400 so... statistics are worth what they are...

 

(and 46,9% with over 1300 battles :P so spam that battle button till you get rank1)

 

http://shipcomrade.com/leaderboard.asp?name=&G=1&S=8&B=5&R=4&C=0&P=25

 

 

P.S.-  Fail to see the usefullness of a prediction model for ranked btw

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[CATS]
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9 hours ago, SunSkaRe said:

Well... if you compare it to last ranked season... 49,9% will be reached with 500-560 ish battles...

 

But you also have 50% players with over 700 battles and 49% with less then 400 so... statistics are worth what they are...

 

(and 46,9% with over 1300 battles :P so spam that battle button till you get rank1)

 

http://shipcomrade.com/leaderboard.asp?name=&G=1&S=8&B=5&R=4&C=0&P=25

 

 

P.S.-  Fail to see the usefullness of a prediction model for ranked btw

Well, you have to understand statistics. They do not tell how many games you will need, but how many battles you are expected to need, if you are able to pull off the calculation.

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WR is only one side of equation. you also need how many times you are top xp earner. lets say you are top xp 1/10 lost battles and that gives you 5% of draws. so you win 49.9%(win star), draw 5%(not losing star) and other 45,1% you are losing star. so you have net gain of 4.8% WR with which you can advance in ranked. so for every 100 battles you will gain 4.8 stars. from rank 15 to rank 1 there is 50 stars (it is actually 55 i think, but you gain extra star for every rank up till rank 10). so you would need ~1030 battles with these numbers. if we tweak top xp to 1/7 lost battles, you would need around ~720 battles to rank 1.

 

but in real ranked you have winning and losing streaks. so people can have 40% WR at rank 10 with 500 battles (he sucks and was against really good players), then get to rank 1 in next 150 battles with 60% WR (cause players get worse as season goes on, so you can have more influence and also luck with teams). btw that guy would have 44% WR overall and in calculations he should never been able to get to rank 1 with that WR.

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[BGNAV]
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2 hours ago, robihr said:

WR is only one side of equation. you also need how many times you are top xp earner. lets say you are top xp 1/10 lost battles and that gives you 5% of draws. so you win 49.9%(win star), draw 5%(not losing star) and other 45,1% you are losing star. so you have net gain of 4.8% WR with which you can advance in ranked. so for every 100 battles you will gain 4.8 stars. from rank 15 to rank 1 there is 50 stars (it is actually 55 i think, but you gain extra star for every rank up till rank 10). so you would need ~1030 battles with these numbers. if we tweak top xp to 1/7 lost battles, you would need around ~720 battles to rank 1.

 

but in real ranked you have winning and losing streaks. so people can have 40% WR at rank 10 with 500 battles (he sucks and was against really good players), then get to rank 1 in next 150 battles with 60% WR (cause players get worse as season goes on, so you can have more influence and also luck with teams). btw that guy would have 44% WR overall and in calculations he should never been able to get to rank 1 with that WR.

and there is couple of famous imbecs with 46%WR and rank 1 :Smile_teethhappy:

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44 minutes ago, _VAMPA_ said:

and there is couple of famous imbecs with 46%WR and rank 1 :Smile_teethhappy:

last season by number of battles.

b087e436-f2cb-4131-aea3-5abccd53ee33.png

 
last season by WR (rank 1)

 

062e116b-8528-43fb-b022-5222d18fe151.png

 

so calculations are useless in ranked. you can get to rank 1 with 46.1% WR in 845 battles, while someone with 49.3% WR will need 1087 battles. or someone needs 495 battles with 47.6% WR, while someone above 50% needs over 700 battles. you can play 1700 battles, have 47.4% WR and only get to rank 5, while someone with 46.1% WR will get to rank 1 in 845 battles.

 

if you want to get to rank 1 (without much frustration), you need to have knowledge of basics of the game. aiming, angling, knowledge of that tiers ship capabilities (concealment of ships, hydro capability, hydro range, radar capability, radar range, radar duration), basic strategies (role of different classes and playing up to them, priority targets, supporting teammates, surviving). with just investing 1-2 hour of time to watch few youtube videos that explain all that you will get your WR above 52-53% and that will save hundreds of ranked battles needed to get to rank 1.

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[HALON]
[HALON]
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Thanks for your wealth of information, I really appreciated that !. I can see from your stats that calculations are useless !! (And I am saying that with a big smile of course).  

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