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wilkatis_LV

BBs as Fire Starters

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Disclaimer: originally this wasn't intended to be a post, but meh, might aswell post it :cap_haloween:

 

If you are too lazy to read- there are lots of pictures (graphs) to look at, just try not to look like a fool asking something that may already have been answered :Smile_trollface:

 

So, the idea was - how do you really compare BBs by their fire starting potential?

 

Just looking at fire chance % is as far from the truth as you can get - it represents almost nothing. You could calculate in ship fire resistances, but there are different resistances for each tiers (except t1 & t2) stock & top hull, CVs have it different, Damage Control Systems Mod 1 can increase that resistance, Fire Prevention skill can increase that resistance... You, of course, can make a graph with each of those having a separate point. But that's still per 1 shell. A full broadside has quite a few more shells than just 1. So... Multiply the fire chance (that's already normalized with fire resistances) with the number of shells per full broadside.

 

But that's still not all - there isn't single unified reload rate for all BBs - so normalize that to "Fires per minute" (a.k.a. multiply the fires you got previously by 60s divided by ships reload rate), and even then we get extra 2 categories because tier 9 & 10 BBs get Main Battery Mod 3 (increased reload rate).

 

Is that it? Well, no. A rather important part of the game has still been left out - accuracy. And accuracy brings all kinds of problems with it:

  ►  Horizontal dispersion stays the same

  ►  Vertical dispersion differs as these (rather important) stats differ between AP and HE shells:

  • Shell weight
  • Shell muzzle velocity
  • Shell air drag

And that doesn't even take into account ships that have 2 different guns mountable - like GK with 406mm and 420mm guns.

 

But, well, since there is no information on different main battery hit rates depending on amo fired (asked here on Forums, searched in the internet, asked LWM on NA - all returned empty) I just went with the "will be good enough" approach and took the mbh values from Warships-Today (stats for BBs up to and including tier 7 taken on 31st January, stats for BBs tier 8 through 10 taken on 4th February / Warships-Today hasn't updated since mid-to-late December / stats taken from category "2 weeks"). Those values would serve as the general averages of how often those ships do hit- and thus we can calculate how often do they set fires realistically.

Of course, ships like Conqueror which are infamous for spamming HE will have this rating more accurate than something like a Yamato that fires AP almost exclusively but the difference should be small enough that we can generally skip over it

 

And then there's one more thing. All of the above - we're working with base fire chance. But you can get Demolition Expert for +2% fc. And then there are 2 signal flags, each giving additional +1% fc.I just went with "base fc" (what you have normally) and "max fc" (base +4%)

 

Note: this all is about general averages, not set in stone "you will get exactly this - no more, no less" values. An average of 4 fires per minute doesn't mean you will set 2 and then 2 with your 2 salvos, you might aswell set 8 fires in one minute and then 0 in another. It's not about if your RNG will be good or bad, it's about averages - and as the name implies they average out over a large number of battles :cap_like:

 

Also - Duke of York, Roma and Musashi did not have mbh rates given on Warships Today, so I'll give a general comparison for them - the same way as for FR BBs (RoF and fc stats taken from Wiki on those same dates)

 

Hope I didn't forget any BBs :cap_hmm:

 

Oh, another note: these are just fire starting potentials, nothing else of the HEs performance (like dmg) is included

 


 

Explanations of what means what:

fc - fire chance

mbh - main battery hit rate

stc - stock hull

top - top hull

DCSM1 - Damage Control Systems Mod 1 (-3% fires)

FPB - "Fire Prevention Build" - Fire Prevention capt skill (-10% fires) plus DCSM1 mounted

MBM3 - Main Battery Mod 3 (-12% reload time)

 

Oh, yeah, click on those images (graphs) to see them BIGGER

 

5THmpLs.png

Dropped Mikasa in with t3s as she fully overlaps and she's the only t2 BB, Turenne is not compared to her

  ►  base fc

  • Turenne - at 22% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 36% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Konig Albert slightly ahead of Bellerophon
  • Turenne - at 22% mbh would be tier with the worst, at 35% mbh would be tied with the best

 

9XjfwzL.png

  ►  base fc

  • Orion and Nikolai are almost identical
  • Courbet - at 14% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 44% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Courbet - at 13% mbh would be tier with the worst, at 41% mbh would be tied with the best

 

h1PilAu.png

  ►  base fc

  • Revolution and Iron Duke are almost identical
  • Bretagne - at 16% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 38% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Texas and Konig are almost identical
  • Bretagne - at 16% mbh would be tier with the worst, at 36% mbh would be tied with the best
Spoiler

Look at GC - that thing noticeably outperforms ALL t6 BBs and almost all (except KGV, Nelson - and presumably DoY) tier 7 BBs in the tiers where they overlap

 

Here's GC vs 2 best t6s and vs 4 best t7s

 

qz34DBR.png

 

AuQkB1U.png

  ►  base fc

  • New Mexico and Bayern are almost identical
  • Warspite slightly trailing behind Arizona
  • Normandie - at 18% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 27% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • New Mexico and Bayern are almost identical
  • Normandie - at 17% mbh would be tier with the worst, at 26% mbh would be tied with the best

 

AvcIbSR.png

  ►  base fc

  • Ashitaka and Colorado are almost identical
  • Lyon - at 12% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 28% mbh would be tied with the best
  • DoY - at 12% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 28% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Lyon - at 12% mbh would be tier with the worst, at 28% mbh would be tied with the best
  • DoY - at 13% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 28% mbh would be tied with the best
Spoiler

Nelson is not included in the Top 10 firestarters as after going to 3 or 4 decimal places it turned out to be the 11th. You could make the argument that 2 ships take that 10th spot as they had basically identical potential

 

Jkgw3lo.png

  ►  base fc

  • Tirpitz and Bismark are identical, Alabama is almost identical to them
  • Roma - at 32% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 46% mbh would be tied with the best
  • Richelieu - at 24% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 34% mbh would be tied with the best
  • Gascogne - at 24% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 34% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Tirpitz and Bismark are identical, Alabama is trailing right behind them
  • Roma - at 31% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 43% mbh would be tied with the best
  • Richelieu - at 25% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 34% mbh would be tied with the best
  • Gascogne - at 25% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 34% mbh would be tied with the best
Spoiler

Roma is not included in the 10 Worst firestarters as she didn't have mbh values - but she would most definitely be one of the worst thus pushing Kii out of that list

 

Y2ZNNPR.png

zo2t1mv.png

  ►  base fc

  • Iowa and FDG 406 are almost identical to them
  • Musashi - at 21% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 37% mbh would be tied with the best
  • Alsace - at 16% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 27% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Iowa and FDG 406 are almost identical to them
  • Musashi - at 22% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 36% mbh would be tied with the best
  • Alsace - at 16% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 26% mbh would be tied with the best

 

yiTEH7N.png

2qu79rv.png

  ►  base fc

  • France (whatever it will be renamed as) - at 18% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 30% mbh would be tied with the best

  ►  max fc

  • Conq 457 is lagging slightly behind GK 406
  • France (whatever it will be renamed as) - at 17% mbh would be tied with the worst, at 30% mbh would be tied with the best

 


 

gYxCw6W.png

10 best BB-firestarters. All taken with max fire chance, and MBM3 mounted (if applicable). No ship + gun caliber showing up twice (otherwise Conq and GK alone would take up all the spots). same ship with 2 differing gun calibers are treated as 2 different ships, so them both showing up is fair game

 

uWJWqeC.png

10 worst BB-firestarters. All taken with base fire chance, and with no MBM3.

 

cp2LClC.png

mCLjids.png

Averages for the whole tier.

Tier 5 average is always above tier 6 average

At base fc t4 average is trailing right behind t6 average

At max fc t4 average is identical to t6 average

Tiers 9 and 10 are quite noticeably superior to all others, while 2 and 3 are falling behind quite a bit

 


 

All graphs also available here: https://imgur.com/a/glyWw

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Hmm, less than 2 fires per minute is not very impressive considering they have to trade the better damage potential of AP for it.

Especially since fire damage can be healed, and can be halted with the press of a button.

Fires also do much less damage on low-HP ships like DDs and Cruisers due to being %HP based, and which BB AP would simply wreck. (This is different for lower tiers, where HE is more potent and desirable)

 

Does this mean ... we need to buff fires?? XD Maybe make fire damage semi-dependent on the caliber of the HE which started the fire? This would buff BBs by a lot though, in both HE potential, and Fire Resistance potential ... more balancing will then be necessary .... Hmm.. like making total numbers of fire possible dependent on size of the ship instead of 4 for all?

Would even arguably be more realistic though ... I mean, a 400mm BB shell blows up a DD and all the DD gets is a fire damage that is less potent than being rammed by a school of flying fish. When I play DD I don't even bother damage-con halting fires because of the negligible damage they do. (compared to being caught with a used damage-con and a damage rudder)

 

Also would be interesting to see fire rates for other ships besides BBs.

 

Exemplary post, this kind of post gets the thinking going.

 

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I'm currently running a data collection project to determine whether AP or HE shells yield better results on average. For BBs that is. One part of it is the real world fire chance per shell, and it is indeed way lower that what is shown in the shell stats.  Which is a good thing btw, otherwise HE would be indeed the only logical choice of shell.    

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I appreciate the effort and time you took to make that post :Smile_honoring:

 

However - sorry if I misunderstood or make a mistake - wouldn't it be better (statistical-wise), to use the chance of not starting a fire?

 

e.g. (assume 100% MBH and no fire resistance for the sake of the example)

You have a ship with 20% fire chance and 12 guns, the fire chance isn't "just" 12 x 20%; as 240% is quite a meaningless number (2.4 fires?).

To calculate the chance of starting (at least one) fire per salvo, you should use the chance of none of your shells starting a fire = 0.8 ^ 12 (= ~0.069).

As such, assuming 100% MBH and no fire resistance, the chance of a 12-shell 20% fire chance HE salvo setting at least one fire would be 93.1%.

 

::: edit :::

12x 20% fire chance HE with a MBH of 33.3% and vs a TX BB (50% resistance iirc?) would yield a 34.4% chance to start at least one fire :)

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2 hours ago, lup3s said:

I appreciate the effort and time you took to make that post :Smile_honoring:

 

However - sorry if I misunderstood or make a mistake - wouldn't it be better (statistical-wise), to use the chance of not starting a fire?

 

e.g. (assume 100% MBH and no fire resistance for the sake of the example)

You have a ship with 20% fire chance and 12 guns, the fire chance isn't "just" 12 x 20%; as 240% is quite a meaningless number (2.4 fires?).

To calculate the chance of starting (at least one) fire per salvo, you should use the chance of none of your shells starting a fire = 0.8 ^ 12 (= ~0.069).

As such, assuming 100% MBH and no fire resistance, the chance of a 12-shell 20% fire chance HE salvo setting at least one fire would be 93.1%.

 

::: edit :::

12x 20% fire chance HE with a MBH of 33.3% and vs a TX BB (50% resistance iirc?) would yield a 34.4% chance to start at least one fire :)

Proof by contradiction, I like it :Smile_teethhappy:

 

I went with it that way as then I could include all the things I mentioned in the beginning (fire chance, fire resistance, amount of guns per broadside, fire rate and accuracy), but I can see how your approach would be good aswell

 

Overall I did it bcuz I waned to see how good are BBs at it (and which ones are better, which are worse) with no intention to make a post out of it :cap_haloween: And, well, I found plenty of interesting stuff - Dunq being the best for it at t6, GC being so balanced that it not only surpasses all 5s and 6s, but is one of the top tier 7s, FDG and GK being some of the best firestarters in the game... Could say I found what I was looking for :cap_wander:

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Well the differentiation in methods would only matter, and come in useful, if you want to delve deeper into the research.

 

Actual in-game situations are highly moderated by factors such as ship range vs tier, map design at that tier (some maps funnel ships down flanks), which means how many ships (with HE) can be shooting at once at a single enemy ship, whether that ship can choose to stealth out or run or dodge, ...

Player psychology as well. Sometimes players shoot HE when about to die, sometimes one shoots HE when seeing teammate shooting AP, for variety and ganking... sometimes players shoot AP just because they are playing Yamato with the acclaimed "overpen 460s", even when shooting HE would have been the answer for more angled targets ... but they don't want to change to HE, because in case a target turns and presents broadside ....

Competitive vs random play, need for AA, ship roles, projected resistance, how many ships per type per game ....

Everything that can be accredited to game-meta induced gameplay styles .....

 

If you tweak even just a very few things cascading effects can quickly be felt.

 

So because many things are complex, use the appropriate method to make the analysis as clean as possible. For instance, the "single-salvo chance" method would be useful in analyzing returns for a single ship, in a target-switching environment, while "fires over time" would be useful in game modes where a ship might get focused more, ex. cruiser-meta ranked, or for tier-based group-moderated fire-danger-level. (For instance on mid or lower tiers on the right kind of map a ship might suddenly find itself under a painful fire-inducing rain, but will be different on higher tiers on different (campy) maps)...

 

Otherwise as long as it has an accompanying graph there's no way to fail to understand it.

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On 2/24/2018 at 4:34 PM, lup3s said:

I appreciate the effort and time you took to make that post :Smile_honoring:

 

However - sorry if I misunderstood or make a mistake - wouldn't it be better (statistical-wise), to use the chance of not starting a fire?

 

e.g. (assume 100% MBH and no fire resistance for the sake of the example)

You have a ship with 20% fire chance and 12 guns, the fire chance isn't "just" 12 x 20%; as 240% is quite a meaningless number (2.4 fires?).

To calculate the chance of starting (at least one) fire per salvo, you should use the chance of none of your shells starting a fire = 0.8 ^ 12 (= ~0.069).

As such, assuming 100% MBH and no fire resistance, the chance of a 12-shell 20% fire chance HE salvo setting at least one fire would be 93.1%.

 

::: edit :::

12x 20% fire chance HE with a MBH of 33.3% and vs a TX BB (50% resistance iirc?) would yield a 34.4% chance to start at least one fire :)

 

Ohh I was just about to type this :)    

 

We had this discussion a few months back.

 

To the OP:

 

I like your approach because it tried to consider other factors, such at the fire rate and hit rate, and you have some good graphs.    But in terms of pure mathematical calculation, the way to calculate the probably of a given salvo is as explained in @Lup3s post.   

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