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T8 MatchMaking 55% TopTier (SubOctavian's recent comment)

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There has been a live Q/A session recently on TWICH in which MrConway invited SubOctavian to respond to questions regarding the game (Can't remember the exact date, but was around 15/16th of Feb 18:00CET).

 

As usual and well managed by the organizing team the question was raised about the believed to be "poisonous" MatchMaking for T8 ships: the fact that community feels that they are too often up-tiered and being put in T10 Battles.

SubOctavian reacted quickly and pulled up the January 2018 statistics - as he said for ALL servers except China.

To my huge surprise he said that T8 ships in 55% of the battles are TOP TIER, around 17% plays in T9 battles and the rest goes to T10 battles. 

He commented that this is an OK situation, he does not see any problem.

 

Obviously for most of community contributors and players on the EU server it FEELs very different. (since this event I started to count the MM for my Z-23: 80% T10, 10% T9, 10% T8, played in peak evening hours)

 

I started to think about the announced statistic and become skeptical.

Perhaps it would be good to see the figures for the EU server only...? But even if other servers "behaves" differently being the weight of the EU server significant I doubt the situation would look much different.

 

I came to the conclusion that with good intent SubOctavian may reported us misleading figures. Most obvious issue could be if he forgot to exclude RANKED battles from the statistic: January was a RANKED season and that was done with T8 ships. Therefore the TOP TIER T8 battles in TOTAL were much more frequent - as in EVERY ranked battles T8 is the only and of course TOP tier.

Could there be some other statistical interpretation issues?

 

What do you think about this?

What is your current factual experience playing with T8 ships?

 

Can we get back to MrConway and SubOctavian to clarify this?

 

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Zitat

Nope, Live Producer now, responsible for major chunk of WoWS community interaction strategy, including CCT Program. Much fun, little sleep, and I love it, because I'm getting to know a lot of good folks :D

Anyways, you are right to doubt the numbers - they are WorldWide - so all battles to one bin. If we look at EU separately, then it looks less pretty - AFAIK ~34% in t8 and ~40% at t10. EU seems to be the best in terms of t10 popularity. On Stream, I told that this is WorldWide, and did not have time to check individual servers, but anyways, sorry for the confusion.

Cheers!

(https://forum.worldofwarships.eu/topic/90869-interessante-infos-aus-aller-welt-diskussionen-und-meinungen/?page=69)

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1. Not misleading numbers. Just worldwide numbers.

 

2. Check the 'News from the world' thread. Sub_Octavian specified the EU numbers.

 

 

Greetings

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I suspect that T8 MM is also going to be heavily influenced by the ship class with T8 BB being mostly top tier but T8 CA/DD spending most of their time as bottom tier, all a result of the excess numbers of BB at T8+.

 

Quite simply there aren't enough T9/10 CA/DD to absorb large number of T8 BB on top of the T9/10 BB so T8 BB get very favourable MM, conversely the T9/10 BB need a steady supply of XP pinata to pew-pew at so T8 CA spend a lot of time getting uptiered as food for the BB, resulting in absoluetely horrible MM.

 

Which of course generates a vicious cycle of MM making life easy for BB and hard for CA, thus resulting in even more BB and fewer CA, making MM even more extreme and so on.

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1 hour ago, Allied_Winter said:

1. Not misleading numbers. Just worldwide numbers.

 

Which makes them misleading because every single server cluster is regional and not worldwide ...

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Just now, Aotearas said:

 

Which makes them misleading because every single server cluster is regional and not worldwide ...

But balance doesn't take into account regional differences (aparat from China). So from a balancing point of view it's understandable though why stats are collected on the worldwide basis.

 

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5 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

But balance doesn't take into account regional differences (aparat from China). So from a balancing point of view it's understandable though why stats are collected on the worldwide basis.

 

Greetings

 

Collecting data for one purpose is that, sharing data for another purpose is another.

 

Arguing that tier VIII MM is completely fine and using numbers as evidence that aren't true for ANY regional server is simply false, period.

And going from 55% toptier from worldwide stats to 34% for the proper EU stats is quite a significant change, isn't it?

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30 minutes ago, Capra76 said:

I suspect that T8 MM is also going to be heavily influenced by the ship class with T8 BB being mostly top tier but T8 CA/DD spending most of their time as bottom tier, all a result of the excess numbers of BB at T8+.

 

Quite simply there aren't enough T9/10 CA/DD to absorb large number of T8 BB on top of the T9/10 BB so T8 BB get very favourable MM, conversely the T9/10 BB need a steady supply of XP pinata to pew-pew at so T8 CA spend a lot of time getting uptiered as food for the BB, resulting in absoluetely horrible MM.

 

Which of course generates a vicious cycle of MM making life easy for BB and hard for CA, thus resulting in even more BB and fewer CA, making MM even more extreme and so on.

Probably this. Mogami and Hipper made me severely dislike T8, now in my North Carolina and Benson it's not too bad.

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3 minutes ago, Aotearas said:

Arguing that tier VIII MM is completely fine and using numbers as evidence that aren't true for ANY regional server is simply false, period.

I disagree: Arguing that T8 MM is fine using worldwide data to comment on the situation of T8 over ALL servers is fine. 

 

Should've Sub_Octavian elaborated a bit more? Maybe (and in another comment he did).

 

It's all about precise questions. If your question leaves room for 'error', don't wonder if you're not getting the answer you were expecting.

 

 

Quote

And going from 55% toptier from worldwide stats to 34% for the proper EU stats is quite a significant change, isn't it?

 

True, but (as said in another post about that topic): I'd still say that the 1/3 mix (So 1/3 of games being top tier, 1/3 mid and 1/3 low tier) is ok. However Sub_Octavian states that 'on EU it looks less pretty' leaving room for interpretation that WG isn't happy with the state on EU for T8 ships (on average)

 

 

Greetings

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I've played 800 T8 games but only 15 T9 and no T10 ones, so I have a question. Does the MM create T9-10 and T10 only games?

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6 minutes ago, ajb13 said:

I've played 800 T8 games but only 15 T9 and no T10 ones, so I have a question. Does the MM create T9-10 and T10 only games?

In very rare cases it does, but usually there is at least one "lucky" tier 8 ship in the team

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21 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

I disagree: Arguing that T8 MM is fine using worldwide data to comment on the situation of T8 over ALL servers is fine. 

 

There is no disagreeing, math is math. Worldwide averages won't match region server data unless each server by some statistical miracle performed exactly the same (which they don't!). And there are ONLY regional servers, so the numbers won't match the reality any way you put it. Which by definition makes them incorrect, i.e.: false.

 

And we know exactly how false that information was when Octavian amended his comment with the actual EU averages, which lo and behold are NOTHING like the worldwide averages and even stated that EU server tier VIII MM isn't looking too good. How can it thus be correct to use worldwide averages with the intent to argue that all servers are fine if quite evidently NOT all servers are fine?

 

21 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

True, but (as said in another post about that topic): I'd still say that the 1/3 mix (So 1/3 of games being top tier, 1/3 mid and 1/3 low tier) is ok.

 

So if 34% toptier on EU is fine with the 3x 1/3 rule, how come 55% toptier on other servers is fine when it clearly violated that same distribution rather significantly?

 

Which is fine now, 34% or 55%? It can't be both, the difference is too big to call them the same.

 

 

Anyway you try to look at it, it's wrong. Plain and simple.

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" he said that T8 ships in 55% of the battles are TOP TIER, "

 

Is this like the WoT stat that Jingles has been going on about recently: "only 5% of ammo fired in WoT is Premium"?

 

We can all keep a note pad next to our PC's and jot down battle tiers and report back here what we get over 10. 20, 50, 100 battles.

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2 hours ago, Allied_Winter said:

1. Not misleading numbers. Just worldwide numbers.

 

2. Check the 'News from the world' thread. Sub_Octavian specified the EU numbers.

 

 

Greetings

Thanks for the note - I did check it with the surrounding conversation on REDDIT:

Quote

T8 ships currently are toptier in 55% of the battles, 13% in T9 battles, and 33% in T10 battles.

Sorry, u/sub_octavian, but I do not believe that for a second. Over what timeframe, how many games, what servers? This goes against everything we know and have seen. It doesn’t even make sense when you look at the way the MM works, which ideally would result in 33% for everything. We already know (and you have admitted as much) that T5 is screwed and that T7 is being high tier extremely often because of T5‘s MM restriction, now you are telling us that T8 is being high tier all the time as well? That doesn’t make sense. Sorry, not buying it until I get more information about your data.

[–]Sub_Octavian 2 points 5 hours ago 

Hi. I finally got here. Please let me copypaste an answer from neighbor thread:

You are right to doubt the numbers - they are WorldWide - so all battles to one bin. If we look at EU separately, then it looks less pretty - AFAIK ~34% in t8 and ~40% at t10. EU seems to be the best in terms of t10 popularity. On Stream, I told that this is WorldWide, and did not have time to check individual servers, but anyways, sorry for the confusion.

[–]Earl_of_NortheskClosed Beta Player 1 point 2 hours ago 

No problem, thanks for the clarification! I already said in the EU forums that I am aware of the problems of such a vaste database and short times to answer on stream ;)

 

What bugs me still that SubOctavian never specified if his stats were pulled only for RANDOM battles.

His specific EU figures looks closer to personal experiences (only 1 out of 3 battles are TOP TIER)

 

Alongside that line the question remains if WG thinks that this is something requiring attention and action...?

Does Wargaming have some analysis and understanding as WHY this experience is happening?

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55% top tier is a complete lie and it still needs breaking down further into classes maybe.

 

I've grinded out New Orleans a few months back and I definitely was not top tier over half my games.

 

As others have said the MM doesn't punish DDs and BB nearly as hard. NO for instance, her AP simply doesn't properly pen higher tier ships and the RoF is too slow to stack any sort of meaningful damage.

 

I actually read that Sub_O article and it looks good superficially but as guys here have said, it quickly comes short when it's looked into.

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7 minutes ago, Lin3 said:

We can all keep a note pad next to our PC's and jot down battle tiers and report back here what we get over 10. 20, 50, 100 battles.

You don't need to, we have the correct EU numbers: 34% toptier and 40% bottom tier (so that leaves 26% middle tier).

 

But yeah, quite like that "only 5% of ammunition fired is Gold" information nonsense this recent 55% worldwide figure just shows how wrong global stats/averages are when not properly filtered for servers, tiers, tank/ship class etc..

 

 In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the MM distribution at tier VIII varies noticably between BBs and other classes (which the BB overpopulation being a thing it's probably easier to fill a game with tier VIII BBs than with cruisers).

 

Never trust statistics unless you fiddled the numbers yourself ...

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12 minutes ago, Aotearas said:

 

There is no disagreeing, math is math. Worldwide averages won't match region server data unless each server by some statistical miracle performed exactly the same (which they don't!). And there are ONLY regional servers, so the numbers won't match the reality any way you put it. Which by definition makes them incorrect, i.e.: false.

 

And we know exactly how false that information was when Octavian amended his comment with the actual EU averages, which lo and behold are NOTHING like the worldwide averages and even stated that EU server tier VIII MM isn't looking too good. How can it thus be correct to use worldwide averages with the intent to argue that all servers are fine if quite evidently NOT all servers are fine?

 

 

So if 34% toptier on EU is fine with the 3x 1/3 rule, how come 55% toptier on other servers is fine when it clearly violated that same distribution rather significantly?

 

Which is fine now, 34% or 55%? It can't be both, the difference is too big to call them the same.

 

 

Anyway you try to look at it, it's wrong. Plain and simple.

 

Geeezz... ok:

 

1. Please point out where I said: Worldwide average matches regional server data? All I said was "Arguing that T8 MM is fine using worldwide data to comment on the situation of T8 over ALL servers is fine. " Meaning: It's ok to meddle up all the servers to create one (or in this case three) number to get an average value. Overall a 55% Top Tier rate is pretty good to WGs balancing department. Did I argue that it represents the state of each server? No. I even pointed out in the reddit QnA that it'd be nice to know the per server data to get a feeling on how 'skewed' the 55% rate is.

 

2. How can it thus be correct? Simplicity! If you're forced to call out one number (as on a stream with limited time), you tend to simple things down. But be prepared to have answers ready the following days (and lo and behold: He had). 

 

3. I said 34% is fine, Sub_Octavian thinks it's 'less pretty'. WG thinks 55% is a comfortable spot. Notice something? But just as a pointer: Both can be fine if WGs plan is to have a Top Tier rate for T8 ships ranging from X to Y%.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Aotearas said:

 

But yeah, quite like that "only 5% of ammunition fired is Gold" information nonsense this recent 55% worldwide figure just shows how wrong global stats/averages are when not properly filtered for servers, tiers, etc..

 

 

They are not wrong! They just serve a different purpose. Like the average fuel consumption every car in the EU has to display. In 99% of the cases a driver won't be able to reach these ultra low values, but they have their purpose. A purpose the avg. driver may not use in its live, but that doesn't make it wrong.

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

 

Geeezz... ok:

 

1. Please point out where I said: Worldwide average matches regional server data? All I said was "Arguing that T8 MM is fine using worldwide data to comment on the situation of T8 over ALL servers is fine. " Meaning: It's ok to meddle up all the servers to create one (or in this case three) number to get an average value. Overall a 55% Top Tier rate is pretty good to WGs balancing department. Did I argue that it represents the state of each server? No. I even pointed out in the reddit QnA that it'd be nice to know the per server data to get a feeling on how 'skewed' the 55% rate is.

 

Not the point of my argument. I'm saying that worldwide averages can't be used to describe regional server data, because they won't match and which is the reason why that 55% figure is incorrect to use to describe MM distribution for any server.

 

19 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

2. How can it thus be correct? Simplicity! If you're forced to call out one number (as on a stream with limited time), you tend to simple things down. But be prepared to have answers ready the following days (and lo and behold: He had). 

 

Personally I would prefer people not oversimplifying things to the point they spread misleading informations. Selfmade problem right there.

 

19 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

3. I said 34% is fine, Sub_Octavian thinks it's 'less pretty'. WG thinks 55% is a comfortable spot. Notice something? But just as a pointer: Both can be fine if WGs plan is to have a Top Tier rate for T8 ships ranging from X to Y%.

 

34% to 55% is quite a deviation range, don't you think?

 

Anyhow, I just pointed out that your personal 3x 1/3 distribution you're fine with is a long way off what WG thinks is fine.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

They are not wrong! They just serve a different purpose.

 

Yes, that purpose being to talk down the prominence of premium ammunition, despite the circumstance that the 5% figure is just outragously incorrect for some tiers in WoT, especially the higher up you go. Or if we were to not assume a malicious intent to mask premium ammunition use and they simply blurted that number out without any necessary tier filtering, it's still hilariously misleading.

I don't even have to play WoT to know that 5% figure is hilariously out-of-context, just the bit of information I have accumulated watching videos about WoT (it's one of those games I enjoy watching, but can't think of ever enjoying much playing it) is plenty enough to dismiss the reliability of that statistic.

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2 minutes ago, Aotearas said:

 

Not the point of my argument. I'm saying that worldwide averages can't be used to describe regional server data, because they won't match and which is the reason why that 55% figure is incorrect to use to describe MM distribution for any server.

 

 

And I'm saying it's correct to use to describe MM distribution for all servers! Is this information wrong? No, it might just be of little use for the players, but that wasn't the point of the initial argument, was it? 

 

Again: If the question in the QnA would've been "What's the exact MM distribution of T8 on the EU" server and S_O would've said it's ok (using, but not disclosing the 55%) then I'd agree, that's misleading. But that wasn't the case.

 

Quote

Personally I would prefer people not oversimplifying things to the point they spread misleading informations. Selfmade problem right there.

I rather have oversimplyfied answers than no answer. But again, personal preference.

 

Quote

34% to 55% is quite a deviation range, don't you think?

 

Anyhow, I just pointed out that your personal 3x 1/3 distribution you're fine with is a long way off what WG thinks is fine.

So? 

Just because I'm ok with 34% doesn't mean I reject 55% MM. Or where is it stated that I have to tie myself to one number?

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Aotearas said:

Which is fine now, 34% or 55%? It can't be both, the difference is too big to call them the same.

Even just looking at those 2 numbers they don't add up. EU is... the biggest server or is RU bigger? Anyhow, for EU to have 34% and for the global average to stay at 55% some server(s) has to have tier 8s top tier at ridiculously high % to keep that average there.

 

Even if we assume that all 4 servers give equal input (so regardless of if there are 10 games played or 100 games played - a simple "average WR" average of (a+b+c+d)/4 ) other 3 would still have to average 62% games as top tier. Yeah, right, like that's true

 

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8 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

I rather have oversimplyfied answers than no answer. But again, personal preference.

Fair enough.

 

8 minutes ago, Allied_Winter said:

So? 

Just because I'm ok with 34% doesn't mean I reject 55% MM. Or where is it stated that I have to tie myself to one number?

 

Just saying that the difference between 34% and 55% is too large for both of them to be considered on the same level, meaning that one of them is fine and the other isn't. If you're fine with 55%, then 34% isn't fine and the same would be true vice versa.

 

The difference is just too massive and if I were to return to Octavian's "looks less pretty" statement, too massive to take his words as anything but a tongue-in-cheek understatement. Either that or as an admission that WG simply doesn't care.

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3 minutes ago, Aotearas said:

Just saying that the difference between 34% and 55% is too large for both of them to be considered on the same level, meaning that one of them is fine and the other isn't. If you're fine with 55%, then 34% isn't fine and the same would be true vice versa.

Hmmm maybe I'll have to rephrase what I said in order to have a proper definition.

 

I'd think 34% would be the sweet spot (the 3x 1/3), thus 'fine'. If WG thinks otherwise (either by saying 55% is ok) then I certainly wouldn't object that, thus 'fine ... ish' to me. That makes both discussed numbers fine for me.

 

 

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When playing my T8 CV only 1 in 4 games I am top T.

and since I play only CV, I do "feel" the MM.

Also, in T9 only 1 of 6-7 I am top T.

 

SO WG as showing us wrong info again.

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11 minutes ago, ASharpPencil said:

When playing my T8 CV only 1 in 4 games I am top T.

and since I play only CV, I do "feel" the MM.

Also, in T9 only 1 of 6-7 I am top T.

 

SO WG as showing us wrong info again.

 

 

Sooooo because your set of statistics doesn't match the numbers by WG you assume WG is wrong? :Smile_facepalm:

 

You do know how averaging data works?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Aotearas said:

So if 34% toptier on EU is fine with the 3x 1/3 rule, how come 55% toptier on other servers is fine when it clearly violated that same distribution rather significantly?

Well, that part is easy.

If ships of some tier are uptiered too much (say, 55% being bottom tier) - that is a problem (how severe is up to debate, but still a problem). But it doesn't work in reverse - being top tier too often is not something that hurts players, after all. There is, in fact, the tier 10 that, by design, is top tier 100% of the time, right?

 

Not to mention that these numbers suggest that there are just not that many people playing t10 on other servers - so making sure that t8 gets to be bottom tier more would end up with t10 ships spread out more thinly... and frankly, I don't like matches like these too much - if there's t10, I'd like to see a bunch of them at once instead of making that one tX the sole king of the match.

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