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mariouus

Heavy loosing streaks after Steam release.

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Been experincing heavy daily Loosing streaks since early December. I have played WoWs for some time now, while I have seen loosing or winning streaks before, I have seen nothing really like since early December.

 

Some days it is fine, but occasionally, I will hit unmanageable loosing streaks. If it would happen on single ship, I would just attribute this to my inability to play it. But it happens on ships I usually do well in. Some days, I can just not get a win, what ever hoops I jump trough. For example in Yorck, one day I have 30% winrate, regardless how I play it, but next day it is well above 60%.

 

At first I attributed it for being unlucky. But now, after having it on Mogami, Molotov, Yorck, Roon and Hindenburg and Schanhorst. All are ships, I tend do play somewhat better than average player could. I do not think that this is the case.

 

Now, you realised Steam version in late November. Meaning that most likely I am experincing is the result of "Unchecked" influx of new and unexpierenced players. Because I did not see it in such propotions before.

 

Now, I think new players are important for longativity of the game. And I do not mind it. But currently, it is too crappily done. If you can not design Matchmaking that could handle it, it is bad for the game.

 

Thing you have do think about, is that what is the motivation of "Old" players continuing do play the game. Because I am not seeing it. For example today, had 33% win rate in both Roon and Hindenburg. It is less than Bot would get. And still, I played them above average. The fact that battle is lost, even before it starts, is not fun and most importantly it is not sustainable. Yes, looking back at experience of last couple of months, tomorrow everything is fine. But what is my motivation for playing tomorrow? Sure, at long run it would probably even out. But if person would  "Burn" camos, flags and premium account during loosing streaks there might not be a "long run".

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Losing streaks can happen on all ships. But you also encounter nice winning streaks.

You WR went up since December.

 

Single days do not count.

 

New and inexperienced players make matches easier for you.

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54 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:

Losing streaks can happen on all ships. But you also encounter nice winning streaks.

You WR went up since December.

Yes, but my issue is continous loosing streaks. Something I did not have before Steam. If MM gives you full day of losses and next day "balances" it out with easy winning streak next day is not a working MM. And I did not see it, for example in october.

And no, influx of bad player does not make me play better

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If you lose too much, take a break. Looks like you play a lot of battles in a row.

When you lose, you get frustrated. Being frustrated does not make you play better, increasing your chance to lose which in turn makes you even more frustrated.

 

No, they do not make you play better, but they make you perform better.

 

Where do you make more damage? Broadside ship or angled ship?

What is easier to torp? Evading ship or a straight sailing ship?

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You can have them any day...

 

That has nothing to do with weekends. The average WR of all players does not change on any day.

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3 hours ago, ColonelPete said:

If you lose too much, take a break. Looks like you play a lot of battles in a row.

Problem for me is not the loosing streak in general, it has always happened. Problem is that since December loosing streaks have gotten longer, usually lasting full day and are more numerous. I am not really worried about the win rate, but of the  grinding part. So the fact that win rate evens up eventually is much less important than having MM that works reasonably consistently. Yesterday tried to train my Hindenburg captain, had camos and flags mounted, so loosing two out of three games did not help. Nor did the fact that the win rate did even out, it did, but after I had ran out of those camos and flags. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, mariouus said:

Problem for me is not the loosing streak in general, it has always happened. Problem is that since December loosing streaks have gotten longer, usually lasting full day and are more numerous. I am not really worried about the win rate, but of the  grinding part. So the fact that win rate evens up eventually is much less important than having MM that works reasonably consistently. Yesterday tried to train my Hindenburg captain, had camos and flags mounted, so loosing two out of three games did not help. Nor did the fact that the win rate did even out, it did, but after I had ran out of those camos and flags.

Could it be that you've been playing in high tier more the last few months and it's tougher to influence the battle the same way you did in lower tiers? Maybe German cruisers doesn't fit you as well as some other ships. You had a good stretch last night, so maybe just random factors too...

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12 hours ago, mariouus said:

my issue is continous loosing streaks. Something I did not have before Steam.

 

1st of all already said:

13 hours ago, wilkatis_LV said:

correlation-causation.jpg

 

2nd - maybe "you" didn't have them before STEAM release, but others did. They've been around and they will be around. In fact, you probably had them, just didn't pay as much attention as you didn't have something obvious to blame

 

3rd - I can explain this in a really simple way

 

Lets say the super-average player has exactly 50% WR. That can be "simulated" with a random number generator like https://andrew.hedges.name/experiments/random/ where rolling "1" is a win and rolling "2" is a loss (and you don't roll any other numbers, just those 2). Number of rolls would represent games played.

 

Now roll it 10 times. See how many and how long "strings" of the same number you get in a row without the other one in the middle. Now do that for 100 rolls. Now a 1000. Now 5000.

 

As you roll more (a.k.a. play more games) you are more and more likely to find longer and longer strings of the same number - whether it's 1 or 2. Of course, if you're winning a lot you ignore it, as soon as you start loosing the complaining starts. Over a long period (lots of games / rolls) they will still average each other out leaving your own performance as the only showing factor for more or less wins than defeats

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1 hour ago, wilkatis_LV said:

Lets say the super-average player has exactly 50% WR. That can be "simulated" with a random number generator like https://andrew.hedges.name/experiments/random/ where rolling "1" is a win and rolling "2" is a loss (and you don't roll any other numbers, just those 2). Number of rolls would represent games played.

 

Now roll it 10 times. See how many and how long "strings" of the same number you get in a row without the other one in the middle. Now do that for 100 rolls. Now a 1000. Now 5000.

 

As you roll more (a.k.a. play more games) you are more and more likely to find longer and longer strings of the same number - whether it's 1 or 2. Of course, if you're winning a lot you ignore it, as soon as you start loosing the complaining starts. Over a long period (lots of games / rolls) they will still average each other out leaving your own performance as the only showing factor for more or less wins than defeats

Well, computerized random number generators are actually not random at all. They follow pre-defined algorithms to be "random" .The more pre-defined variables it have to account, the less "random" it actually is.So they are pseudo-random, their operation gives impression of randomness, but at the same time they are not really random.If given same variables they act in predictable and lets say pre-defined way. But this is not the case here, or maybe it is.

 

Like I said before. I have seen a lot of loosing and winning streaks. In WoWs and in WoT. It is not the issue as such, yes I might loose 5-6 battles (or win) and after that it was business as usual. What I am seeing now, since 24 of November I think, is daily loosing streaks, that last about 24.hours, next day I get absurd winning streak, that also tend do last a full day.Sometimes it happens other way around, day long winning streak followed by long loosing streak next day I play. So yes, on average everything is fine. But MM should not work like that. In your example, if RNG at one day constantly pulls up single combination then it is most likely something wrong with pre-defined part of that RNG algorithm.

 

For example I have gotten loosing streak on 5 or 6 days and all of them is followed by winning streak. In other words, in last two months I have had 10-12 days where I win most of the battles or loose most of the battles. If loosing streaks would happen in ships I play badly, then I would totally understand. For example low win-rate in Martell or Moskva is no surprise to me, I play them badly so no real mystery. But in ships like Molotov, Mogami, Yorck, Roon, Hindenburg and even Schanhorst this phenomenon is not that easy do understand.  On one day, I am struggling to achieve 30% winrate and next day I have easy 75% winrate, this is not really normal. While my playstyle remains the same.

 

Why I am complaining about it is not a win-rate, do not care about that much about that. Specially because I know that win rate gets evened out the next day, when I hit winning streak. It is more or less tech-tree or captain progression thing.If have time do grind some ship, have camos and flags mounted and I get 33% regardless of my performance, it does not really matter that next day is better. If I have already burnt my camos and flags and activated my 24.h premium account.

 

Second thing is that it is actually rather predictable. RNG based system can not be easily predictable. Yesterday, when I was writing this topic, I already knew that I will hit winning streak after 2400 a clock and I did. Because it had happened 5.times now.

 

So I am either unlucky in "organized" way, or there is some variable in MM that causes this.

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4 hours ago, wilkatis_LV said:

 

1st of all already said:

 

2nd - maybe "you" didn't have them before STEAM release, but others did. They've been around and they will be around. In fact, you probably had them, just didn't pay as much attention as you didn't have something obvious to blame

 

3rd - I can explain this in a really simple way

 

Lets say the super-average player has exactly 50% WR. That can be "simulated" with a random number generator like https://andrew.hedges.name/experiments/random/ where rolling "1" is a win and rolling "2" is a loss (and you don't roll any other numbers, just those 2). Number of rolls would represent games played.

 

Now roll it 10 times. See how many and how long "strings" of the same number you get in a row without the other one in the middle. Now do that for 100 rolls. Now a 1000. Now 5000.

 

As you roll more (a.k.a. play more games) you are more and more likely to find longer and longer strings of the same number - whether it's 1 or 2. Of course, if you're winning a lot you ignore it, as soon as you start loosing the complaining starts. Over a long period (lots of games / rolls) they will still average each other out leaving your own performance as the only showing factor for more or less wins than defeats

Your example does not make sense, since there's no skill involved in rolling random numbers, while in WoWs, skill matters and does influence the outcome of a match.

 

Anyway I don't think OP has anything to blame on the Steam release ...

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41 minutes ago, mariouus said:

Well, computerized random number generators are actually not random at all.

Take a dice. Rolling 1 to 3 = win, rolling 4 to 6 = loss. Same deal :fish_palm:

 

43 minutes ago, mariouus said:

But MM should not work like that.

MM puts 12 ships vs 12 ships, with very few rules like a CV always fights a CV and top tier ships can't differ in their count by more than one. We DO NOT have skill based MM.

 

44 minutes ago, mariouus said:

In your example, if RNG at one day constantly pulls up single combination then it is most likely something wrong with pre-defined part of that RNG algorithm.

No, it means you hit a random strike of multiple same outcomes in a row. As I said I don't care if you use some online RNG, dice or 5000 leaflets with win / loss written on them that you're drawing from a bag. Random doesn't mean 1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2, it means RANDOM. And in a random case 1-1-1 or 2-2-2-2 can happen in the middle, and the more rolls you do the more likely you are to run into it.

 

50 minutes ago, mariouus said:

On one day, I am struggling to achieve 30% winrate and next day I have easy 75% winrate, this is not really normal. While my playstyle remains the same.

Bcuz some players are better, some are worse - and you got them randomly assigned with you and against you. Perfectly normal.

 

In fact, (assuming you don't count yourself as a steam noob) - enemy team has 12 slots for them, while your team has 11. If you're on a losing streak and steam noobs are to blame - that actually means they are the ones handing your a** to you

 

53 minutes ago, mariouus said:

Why I am complaining about it is not a win-rate, do not care about that much about that. Specially because I know that win rate gets evened out the next day, when I hit winning streak. It is more or less tech-tree or captain progression thing.If have time do grind some ship, have camos and flags mounted and I get 33% regardless of my performance, it does not really matter that next day is better. If I have already burnt my camos and flags and activated my 24.h premium account.

So your problem is you can't have a 100% WR? Well then, go play PvE, it has an average of like 93% (which is as close to a 100 as you'll get), sounds like the perfect place for you

 

54 minutes ago, mariouus said:

Second thing is that it is actually rather predictable. RNG based system can not be easily predictable. Yesterday, when I was writing this topic, I already knew that I will hit winning streak after 2400 a clock and I did. Because it had happened 5.times now.

Oh yeah, I imagined that I'll get a winningstreak at that time, I was LOOKING FOR IT, and I thought I found it. Great understanding how statistics and confirmation bias works

 

57 minutes ago, mariouus said:

So I am either unlucky in "organized" way, or there is some variable in MM that causes this.

24 random people thrown together, with the only variables being ships they picked - it's RANDOM and purely depends on how much can you do yourself

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6 hours ago, ColonelPete said:

If it is that predictable, you know when it is happening and you stop playing for that time...

Because I had premium account active.With-out it, I would have stopped after couple of battles.

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TL:DR

I played badly, thus it is the fault of those pesky steam players....

 

Move on .... another pointless whining thread!

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