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loppantorkel

MM manipulation?

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161 members have voted

  1. 1. How much is MM manipulated? In a descending order...

    • 10: I'm clearly shafted by MM
      25
    • 9: WG manipulates MM to get players to spend money
      26
    • 8: WG uses MM to get players to play more
      9
    • 7: MM takes player skill into account for better matches
      3
    • 6: MM takes previous games into account, losing streaks or wins
      9
    • 5: Returning players get easier MM
      3
    • 4: Premium ships may give you preferential MM
      1
    • 3,5: Being low tier for too many times in a row, let you become mid- or high tier
      7
    • 3: New players get easier MM
      9
    • 2: Only tiers and classes are balanced
      21
    • 1: MM is completely random
      43
    • Other - ?
      5

161 comments in this topic

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I think most of us get the feeling sometimes that MM might be a bit 'steered' in some direction, and it probably is, but to what degree? Sometimes you end up in terrible teams and no matter what you do you can't turn it around, and other times you might have had a little break and enemies are sailing like they were hired by WG just to die for you.

I doubt we'll ever have a clear cut answer from WG that could be fully trusted (not because of evil or anything, just because capitalism and company secrets and that's fair).

 

So how far into tinfoil hat territory do you go? What's reasonable to assume? Could things be tested or are there answers to be datamined? To which degree would you like 'smart' or 'manipulated' MM? I know 8 is missing in the poll. New valid options will be added.

 

edit: added some poll options. Some early votes got messed up in the bottom... :Smile_hiding:

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There is only ONE correct answer (hint: my nick)  ... and if you think otherwise .. you are fooling yourself.

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Look at WG's patent (?) about how the MM works.

IIRC the MM is manipulated in certain ways (i.e. it is not 100% random) but not in the way that WG throws all the bad people at you so you lose but in regards to being low tier or high tier over a certain number of matches.

Player skill rating is not taken into account, ship upgrades/modules or captain skills are not taken into account, neither is time spent offline and the biggest RNG which are the players themselves can not (reliably) be taken into account.

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9 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:

It cannot be random as there are rules... :fish_palm:

Tier I vs Tier X?

5 DD vs 0 DD?

amLMQpGPRl6E0h0z4slg_The%20Rock%20Eyerol

 

WG is a company and their sole purpose of existence is to maximize profit.

You really think the whole game is not designed / tweaked / manipulated in order to max the profits? Really? 

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6 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:

It cannot be random as there are rules... :fish_palm:

Tier I vs Tier X?

5 DD vs 0 DD?

But within these rules it is random, e.g. player skill, ship upgrades, captain skills.

So while you have certain rules like a soft cap of 5 BBs per side, this can be anything from one low tier BB per side to five Conquerors on team red and two Yamatos, two Kurfürsts and one Montana on your team.

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6 minutes ago, nambr9 said:

amLMQpGPRl6E0h0z4slg_The%20Rock%20Eyerol

 

WG is a company and their sole purpose of existence is to maximize profit.

You really think the whole game is not designed / tweaked / manipulated in order to max the profits? Really? 

That is the economy of the game, not the MM.

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New players aren't eased into the game? I thought that was a given where MM is 'steered', and classes and tiers are clearly matched up for the sake of balance.

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27 minutes ago, Tungstonid said:

Look at WG's patent (?) about how the MM works.

IIRC the MM is manipulated in certain ways (i.e. it is not 100% random) but not in the way that WG throws all the bad people at you so you lose but in regards to being low tier or high tier over a certain number of matches.

Player skill rating is not taken into account, ship upgrades/modules or captain skills are not taken into account, neither is time spent offline and the biggest RNG which are the players themselves can not (reliably) be taken into account.

Care to speculate how MM is manipulated, to what extent and for what reasons?

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48 minutes ago, loppantorkel said:

Care to speculate how MM is manipulated, to what extent and for what reasons?

There is no reason to speculate. Just look here: https://www.google.com/patents/US8425330

 

Sure, WG might have tweaked it a little over the years but I, personally, doubt it goes beyond of what I wrote in my first post. WG doesn't get anything out of it to throw you in teams with bad players. If anything you will be more and more displeased with the game resulting in lower money spent or you will quit the game which doesn't only hurt WG directly via lower income but also indirectly because the already low server population (compared to other MMOs) decreases further which at some point will affect players who still like to play. And as I also said before, WG can't influence the players themselves. So what if they put the enemy full of unicums? There is still no guarantee they will win. In fact, overconfidence might even increase their chance to lose.

All in all, those "WG manipulates MM, hence I lose" threads IMO don't have any real footing but are just a mixture of ranting over the incompetence of other players (be it true or as an excuse for one's inabilities) and finding patterns when there are none. e.g. some people state that WR and MM are influenced by whether you have premium account or not to encourage people to buy more premium time.

As to why WG manipulates the MM in the ways I think they do as described above... For the same reason (nearly) every RNG in games or entertainment programs is "manipulated". Be it an online game or the random play function on your smartphone/MP3-player. Actually we had an interesting topic about this a while ago where someone posted a video about this which I will add if I find it. To make it short: Since the human brain is evolved in a way that it tries to find patterns, random numbers or events sometimes don't feel random. If you toss a coin 10 times it is possible to get ten tails in a row but it doesn't feel like the result was actually generated randomly. To prevent this feeling, a lot of programs are manipulated in a way that the result looks more random and long streaks of a certain event don't occur. If you have a coin toss in an online game, there is a good chance the program will count how often you have gotten a certain result in a row and will intervene at some point. To put it into a WoWS perspective regarding the MM: If the MM is completely random it is entirely possible that you will be low tier 100 times in a row if you join with a tier 8 ship. Again, this doesn't feel random, so the program will intervene at some point and try to get you into a game where you will be mid or high tier.

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6 minutes ago, Tungstonid said:

There is no reason to speculate. Just look here: https://www.google.com/patents/US8425330

 

Sure, WG might have tweaked it a little over the years but I, personally, doubt it goes beyond of what I wrote in my first post. WG doesn't get anything out of it to throw you in teams with bad players. If anything you will be more and more displeased with the game resulting in lower money spent or you will quit the game which doesn't only hurt WG directly via lower income but also indirectly because the already low server population (compared to other MMOs) decreases further which at some point will affect players who still like to play. And as I also said before, WG can't influence the players themselves. So what if they put the enemy full of unicums? There is still no guarantee they will win. In fact, overconfidence might even increase their chance to lose.

All in all, those "WG manipulates MM, hence I lose" threads IMO don't have any real footing but are just a mixture of ranting over the incompetence of other players (be it true or as an excuse for one's inabilities) and finding patterns when there are none. e.g. some people state that WR and MM are influenced by whether you have premium account or not to encourage people to buy more premium time.

As to why WG manipulates the MM in the ways I think they do as described above... For the same reason (nearly) every RNG in games or entertainment programs is "manipulated". Be it an online game or the random play function on your smartphone/MP3-player. Actually we had an interesting topic about this a while ago where someone posted a video about this which I will add if I find it. To make it short: Since the human brain is evolved in a way that it tries to find patterns, random numbers or events sometimes don't feel random. If you toss a coin 10 times it is possible to get ten tails in a row but it doesn't feel like the result was actually generated randomly. To prevent this feeling, a lot of programs are manipulated in a way that the result looks more random and long streaks of a certain event don't occur. If you have a coin toss in an online game, there is a good chance the program will count how often you have gotten a certain result in a row and will intervene at some point. To put it into a WoWS perspective regarding the MM: If the MM is completely random it is entirely possible that you will be low tier 100 times in a row if you join with a tier 8 ship. Again, this doesn't feel random, so the program will intervene at some point and try to get you into a game where you will be mid or high tier.

I didn't know premium ships could get entitled MM. That was news for me. Wouldn't be a huge stretch do give a little preferential MM to those with a premium account.. :Smile_sceptic:

Is it official that MM intervenes if you've been low tier in too many games in a row?

 

Just to set it straight too - I'm not suggesting WG has any inclination to fix the MM. I think the questions in the OP and the poll options are valid. There clearly are some MM adjustments to make the game better, then there might be some to increase profit, and then some players might be paranoid enough to think WG is out to get them. Could be interesting to see what people think and even if the patterns are just in the brain, it could be interesting to see what they look like.

 

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The extent of human stupidity, especially of humans who think of themselfs as educated and independed thinking, will never stop fascinating me.

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Just now, principat121 said:

The extent of human stupidity, especially of humans who think of themselfs as educated and independed thinking, will never stop fascinating me.

Care to elaborate?

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That's the point. Premium account or premium ships or the lack thereof don't give any special MM in general. It is just in the head of the people who want an excuse.

The thing with getting preferential MM if you have been low tier for too many games is confirmed as far as I know.

 

The thing is, how do you make profit by any MM manipulations if the battle itself (which could then go either way) is decided by the players? There is no point as far as I can see.

The patterns are quite easy to understand, even (or especially) from an outsider's point of view. It is a mixture of selective perception ("everytime I have premium time I seem to get better teams"), hearsay from others who seemlingly experienced the same while ignoring those who can't confirm certain correlations at all (I rarely have premium time, yet my WR is way above 50%) or the official explanation of how the MM works.

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18 minutes ago, loppantorkel said:

Is it official that MM intervenes if you've been low tier in too many games in a row?

Yes. I think I've seen this written somewhere, but - in fact - you can confirm it yourself, at least on low tiers, by picking a VERY low tier (t2?) ship and playing a bunch of games. Sometimes you'll get a match relatively quickly - and be low tier. But then there will be that one match you'll have to wait forever for - and you'll be high tier in that one.

It's not that noticeable on higher tiers (assuming it still works like that) because the queue times for "top tier as t8" is short enough to not leave an impression of something being different from "anywhere as t8"... but an algorithm for breaking low tier streaks is most certainly a thing.

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I do not think that people who truely consider a manipulation of MM are willing and capable of understanding that.

 

Most people lack a fundamental understanding of how random or chance works. They are no able to scrutinize their experience in multiple ways from different angles (as e.g. scientists are used to). They tent to prefere a solution that fits their believes. This is assisted by one human flaw: we have no sense for randomness and humans try to (want to) see patterns where no were (so called clustering illusion). And the confirmation bias does the rest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The threads about manipulation of the Matchmaker are as old as Wargaming itself. But as up to now, no one could solve that equation for x:

 

1.) manipulation of the MM

2.) x

3.) profit

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6 minutes ago, Tungstonid said:

That's the point. Premium account or premium ships or the lack thereof don't give any special MM in general. It is just in the head of the people who want an excuse.

The thing with getting preferential MM if you have been low tier for too many games is confirmed as far as I know.

 

The thing is, how do you make profit by any MM manipulations if the battle itself (which could then go either way) is decided by the players? There is no point as far as I can see.

The patterns are quite easy to understand, even (or especially) from an outsider's point of view. It is a mixture of selective perception ("everytime I have premium time I seem to get better teams"), hearsay from others who seemlingly experienced the same while ignoring those who can't confirm certain correlations at all (I rarely have premium time, yet my WR is way above 50%) or the official explanation of how the MM works.

? It's even stated in the patent link you provided - premium ships may have preferential MM

Quote

The battle table may provide an advantage to premium vehicles by limiting the tiers of other vehicles against which a similarly tiered premium vehicle may compete.

As for why - players being high tier in their premium ships will have an easier time, be more influential in battle (more kills, xp, etc)

 

MM is adjusted in various ways - the question is to what extent. You can't disregard the possibility of tampering with premium time or ships just because there are ignorant people around. The question is still valid.

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7 minutes ago, principat121 said:

I do not think that people who truely consider a manipulation of MM are willing and capable of understanding that.

 

Most people lack a fundamental understanding of how random or chance works. They are no able to scrutinize their experience in multiple ways from different angles (as e.g. scientists are used to). They tent to prefere a solution that fits their believes. This is assisted by one human flaw: we have no sense for randomness and humans try to (want to) see patterns where no were (so called clustering illusion). And the confirmation bias does the rest.

 

The threads about manipulation of the Matchmaker are as old as Wargaming itself. But as up to now, no one could solve that equation for x:

 

1.) manipulation of the MM

2.) x

3.) profit

Yet, you seem to have failed to understand the purpose of the thread. Did you not read it and jumped straight to the conclusions you had in store?

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1 hour ago, Tungstonid said:

There is no reason to speculate. Just look here: https://www.google.com/patents/US8425330

 

Sure, WG might have tweaked it a little over the years but I, personally, doubt it goes beyond of what I wrote in my first post. WG doesn't get anything out of it to throw you in teams with bad players. If anything you will be more and more displeased with the game resulting in lower money spent or you will quit the game which doesn't only hurt WG directly via lower income but also indirectly because the already low server population (compared to other MMOs) decreases further which at some point will affect players who still like to play. And as I also said before, WG can't influence the players themselves. So what if they put the enemy full of unicums? There is still no guarantee they will win. In fact, overconfidence might even increase their chance to lose.

All in all, those "WG manipulates MM, hence I lose" threads IMO don't have any real footing but are just a mixture of ranting over the incompetence of other players (be it true or as an excuse for one's inabilities) and finding patterns when there are none. e.g. some people state that WR and MM are influenced by whether you have premium account or not to encourage people to buy more premium time.

As to why WG manipulates the MM in the ways I think they do as described above... For the same reason (nearly) every RNG in games or entertainment programs is "manipulated". Be it an online game or the random play function on your smartphone/MP3-player. Actually we had an interesting topic about this a while ago where someone posted a video about this which I will add if I find it. To make it short: Since the human brain is evolved in a way that it tries to find patterns, random numbers or events sometimes don't feel random. If you toss a coin 10 times it is possible to get ten tails in a row but it doesn't feel like the result was actually generated randomly. To prevent this feeling, a lot of programs are manipulated in a way that the result looks more random and long streaks of a certain event don't occur. If you have a coin toss in an online game, there is a good chance the program will count how often you have gotten a certain result in a row and will intervene at some point. To put it into a WoWS perspective regarding the MM: If the MM is completely random it is entirely possible that you will be low tier 100 times in a row if you join with a tier 8 ship. Again, this doesn't feel random, so the program will intervene at some point and try to get you into a game where you will be mid or high tier.

So much tinfoil...

And yes, your are speculating.

 

We have patents for self diving cars. Do they work? Not really.

We have patents for habitats on Mars. Do we have any?

 

You can have patents for alot of stuff, but that does not mean they exist.

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14 minutes ago, loppantorkel said:

? It's even stated in the patent link you provided - premium ships may have preferential MM

 

As for why - players being high tier in their premium ships will have an easier time, be more influential in battle (more kills, xp, etc)

 

MM is adjusted in various ways - the question is to what extent. You can't disregard the possibility of tampering with premium time or ships just because there are ignorant people around. The question is still valid.

I guess this is a relic of the old days. This patent was already used for WoT, mind you, so way before WoWS and back in the old days there were certain premium tanks which didn't have the usual +-2 MM. The Super Pershing or IS-6 come to my mind which had inferior guns and hence couldn't meet tier 10 tanks although being tier 8. Ah, good old days when premium ships were on par or slightly weaker than their silver counterparts... And "May have" is not the same as "do have". At some point WG decided to not release vehicles with preferential MM anymore. At least not as much as they used to.

 

If the preferential MM of current premium ships (more often being high tier as you suggested) really is a thing, I wonder why WG doesn't advertise them as such. If they don't name such an advantage I don't see how it helps them selling stuff. And in regards that it makes more profit for WG if the player makes more profit ingame... I don't think so because WG lives off an economy which is not in favour the player.

 

No, I can't fully disregard the possibility that premium time and ships influences your personal MM but I (or rather the ones who claim this) don't have proof that it does ("What can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.") and I actually have a good indication of that it is not true because I rarely use premium time and still manage to preserve an above average WR.

 

9 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:

So much tinfoil...

And yes, your are speculating.

 

We have patents for self diving cars. Do they work? Not really.

We have patents for habitats on Mars. Do we have any?

 

You can have patents for alot of stuff, but that does not mean they exist.

Please tell me where I am tinfoiling instead of making a short and snarky comment. :Smile_sceptic:

As I said above, this patent was already used for WoT and  the MM might have been slightly changed in the meantime. Your current high tier/low tier streak having an effect on the MM is a fact, so no speculating and no tinfoiling there. And there is nothing more I think is manipulated. So if you have an actual objection state it but please spare me any comments that are some general remark without any real substance behind them.

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And here we have ANOTHER thread about MM rigging.... these, unfortunately, crop up from time to time.... Listen up guys the ONLY RIGGING that takes place is the self confessed (By Devs) Skill leveller... that is, DETONATIONS !

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#2

 

MM is fine - just need to balance number of radars in each team

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11 minutes ago, Tungstonid said:

I guess this is a relic of the old days. This patent was already used for WoT, mind you, so way before WoWS and back in the old days there were certain premium tanks which didn't have the usual +-2 MM. The Super Pershing or IS-6 come to my mind which had inferior guns and hence couldn't meet tier 10 tanks although being tier 8. Ah, good old days when premium ships were on par or slightly weaker than their silver counterparts... And "May have" is not the same as "do have". At some point WG decided to not release vehicles with preferential MM anymore. At least not as much as they used to.

 

If the preferential MM of current premium ships (more often being high tier as you suggested) really is a thing, I wonder why WG doesn't advertise them as such. If they don't name such an advantage I don't see how it helps them selling stuff. And in regards that it makes more profit for WG if the player makes more profit ingame... I don't think so because WG lives off an economy which is not in favour the player.

 

No, I can't fully disregard the possibility that premium time and ships influences your personal MM but I (or rather the ones who claim this) don't have proof that it does ("What can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.") and I actually have a good indication of that it is not true because I rarely use premium time and still manage to preserve an above average WR.

Okay, it might be a relic. Given that it was used in the way you describe in WoT, it's unlikely it's in work in WoWs. It would be fairly easy to test, but I'll take the lazy route and believe Premium ships doesn't affect MM. Haven't noticed it so far anyway.

 

I don't give much for your 'good indication' though. It doesn't take much to keep an above average WR.

3 minutes ago, lup3s said:

#2

 

MM is fine - just need to balance number of radars in each team

Don't even believe 3,5 which has more or less been confirmed?

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2 minutes ago, loppantorkel said:

Don't even believe 3,5 which has more or less been confirmed?

 

Not sure about the numbering of your points.

I think it's just luck; on a small amount of battles you can have some weird streaks.

 

#3 is sort of true.. low tiers have protected MM

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