Jump to content
You need to play a total of 50 battles to post in this section.
GTX10086

a possible explanation of weekend defeat

11 comments in this topic

Recommended Posts

[OSD]
Players
34 posts
2,823 battles

ummm its always easier to defeat in weekends

 

Let us have an ideal model first

based on the player are all random and in normal distribution, the win rate of the player in a certain server should fit in that model. The average player skill level do change during the working day and weekends. but in total,  the win-defeat ratio will always be 1:1, not consider draw, thats the basic point.

 

And if we using that model to explain the defeat consider the total random game. the team, no matter how lucky you are, the total average team-win rate will finally close to 50%, but not really reach 50% consider the random low-chance situation, under the ideal situation, and suppose everyone play in same.

 

then because the different player has different skill level, and the skill level in a server should fit in that model, so in each game, the chance of high skill player's team will have a slightly higher win rate compear to the another random team. as the player's win rate is higher than 50% ,and the same to a poor-player.

 

so in theory, there should be nothing different between weekends and working days. as we can see the difference between weekend and working days are the number of players. and even if they are poor, still the average win-rate will be higher than they play alone

 

BUT almost everyone, including myself, believes its harder to win during the weekends. and thats cannot be explained using an ideal Gaussian distribution.

in weekends, one thing is certain, we have more teamed players in a random game. 

they are they guys changing the game. now the problem is, the players are not all random in math. the teamed player will now make a great difference. 

we all know if 3 experienced players in a team, well they will have better cooperation, and so if you play with them, you will win easily, even if your team are just on average, thats still better than a 50% win rate single player consider the team cooperation and other reasons.

and so still we have 2 side in game, but in theory, the side with a team will have a relatively higher win rate compared to the other side, though the poor skilled teams exist and you will soon find your team defeat fast.

but the key thing is:still they have a relative higher win rate compear to their normal win-rate because they simply have much better cooperation and, a focused fire.

 

so then what happened in weekends is, still the server win-defeat ratio is 1:1 (there is really nothing to change this ratio), and if not consider draw,  the win rate in server still be 50% counting all game, but then what happens is, the teamed players now having a better win rate compare to a single player, and so the average win rate of a single player will significantly lower than 50% as the teamed player are higher than 50%.

 

umm so ...

under that theory.... during weekends, we should play with friends to have a higher win rate.

Though I should say Im not a math student in university, and my university are relavity not very good one...

:)

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[BLUMR]
Beta Tester
813 posts
7,267 battles

 

5 minutes ago, Commander_Cornflakes said:

Tl;dr:

Divisions have a higher winrate :cap_like:

 

Or if you want to play solo and hit a losing streak play a ship like the Khaba to spread the misery all around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[H_FAN]
Players
1,943 posts
22,516 battles

More teamed players during weekends? Stats on that? And as the same number of divisions statistically are on the other team no I do not think your take is realistic. If you are a above average player and the player quality goes down , meaning the average player strength in your matches, you should have a higher probability to win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[ONE2]
Players
2,391 posts
14,369 battles

Well @GTX10086, this theorem makes good sense to me. I certainly play mostly in Division during weekends, as both I and my usual band of "playmates" (and sadly I do not mean the attractive, well-formed kind either:Smile_sad:) have some time off work and so are able to do so.

 

Unfortunately for me tho, my playmates tend to Potato even more than I do, so it doesn't help my winrate any... Sigh!:Smile_sceptic:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[ORCA]
Beta Tester
179 posts
5,715 battles

1.During weekends there's more players and the average player level decreases.

2.But, on average, potatoes are uniformly dispatched in both teams.

 

What can be said from 1. and 2. is:

 

-The difference between the average level of an experienced division and the average level of the team they are facing is  going to be more inportant during weekends on average. 

 (If that division is facing another experienced division, that statement is not true in that particular case. But on average that   particular case is less likely to happen since experienced division are more "diluted" in the more important amount of weekend players.) 

 

It means that an experienced division will have, on average, more impact on games during weekends than during the week. Therefore, it is easier to get wins during weekends for an experienced division than during the week.

 

Overall I'm not sure if it is really harder to get wins during weekends. On average, bad players, good players, bad and good divisions are equally dispatched in teams. The only thing making the difference on a big ammount of games it's you as a player.

 

I wonder if all that stuff about getting more losses during weekends is more a "placebo effect" related thing.

The only way to give a definitive answer to that topic would be to begin a statistic analysis about winrates of a panel of player during the week and during weekends.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[RONIN]
[RONIN]
Beta Tester
2,678 posts
5,566 battles

I find it harder to win on weekends playing solo, unless I use something thats jack of all trades.

 

During the week I tend to find that all teams, regardless of ability, vaguely do whats expected of them. So the DD will head towards caps. Yes they might yolo, yes they might smoke up and die but they will head towards the caps so you can support them.

Similarly if I spot ships in a DD then a weekday team will try shooting them. Yes their lead will be terrible, and they'll be using the wrong ammo, but they'll at least shoot them.

 

Weekend teams......can be something else. You know the small island north of the A cap on islands of ice? Literally had the entire 11 other players on my team hiding behind it. They didnt even cap A. Games like that you just cant win because you on your own cant fight 12 ships and be at 3 caps at once.

 

Similarly you can win on the weekend through simply sailing to the caps because the enemy team are all attempting to fit into J10.

If you play as a division you can carry a lot better since you can have a capper and a cap support. Solo you cant fufil both roles and rely more on the team to do one of those roles

 

TLDR: weekdays both teams play vaguely normally, games are closer, skill tips the results. Weekends are a steam roller victory/loss depending on which side wants to hide more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
534 posts
6,408 battles

My WR consistently suffers at weekends and consistently improves in the week. This frustrates me so I'm tending to not play at weekends anymore. However this carried through to yesterday, partly with my OCD of trying to learn the Harekaze that I just don't get on with and the getting angry because I cant work it out and partly due to some of the weekend players appearing in my games again. Just one of my games general chat went like this

 

Me: Guys follow me to cap and support  my push

Bayern: I can't otherwise ill get shot at

Me: Yes that's the general idea and you're full HP

Bayern: Ill support you from here (behind an island I might add)

Me: Look just don't bother guys I'm angry and am in YOLO mood now..

 

I AM Leroy Jenkins and nothing can stop me...

 

 

we did actually win much to my surprise but you get the idea ha ha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[H_FAN]
Players
1,943 posts
22,516 battles

Until you show some serious statistics with results team composition stats on a very high level I consider it anecdotes (placeboeffect) regardless of how correct it is. It may well be that more dedicated better players play on working days but that you as a above average players WR suffers I simply do not buy. For me some days are good some bad most slightly above average. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[TU]
Players
168 posts
4,835 battles

My win rate is better on Sundays, I guess because most good players are attending churches and unable to play.

  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×