Jump to content
You need to play a total of 50 battles to post in this section.
Ciryonde

Win rate and luck

76 comments in this topic

Recommended Posts

[SCRUB]
Players
8,011 posts
10,423 battles

This thread is like the 214% thread's smart little brother.

 

Yay math and statistics!

  • Cool 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[TEACH]
Alpha Tester
2,431 posts
9,444 battles

After reading all that from the OP I can see why most people find it easier to believe in luck.....yep, I have to agree, easier to believe in 4 letters than all that mental stuff. I'll stick with 4 letters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
3,769 posts
7,462 battles

_FTD_, if you are reading this, stop playing WoWs and go buy some lottery tickets, you are vasting your time!

 

This public service announcement was brought to you by the World of Warships Association of Battleships captains who are tired and fed-up with being burnt to a crisp.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Supertest Coordinator
6,337 posts
4,296 battles

I'm approaching 2000 games with a 60% win rate and yet part of me is still waiting for my luck to "balance out". Even though I did statistics and understand random. And even though I know how MM works.

 

Still can't shake that human feeling :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
151 posts
9,185 battles

I dont believe in luck (unless I'm on a losing streak):unsure:

 

  • Cool 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
3,168 posts
9,352 battles

i only believe in bad luck when i get teammates who cant survive for 5 minutes... when i roflstomp enemy in 5 minutes it is all skill :trollface:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[WGB]
[WGB]
Players
2,100 posts
26,920 battles

made me giggle, but fantastic to read, well done OP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Weekend Tester, In AlfaTesters
1,431 posts
5,599 battles

Well done my friend.

But one point: all written is only valid when it comes to solo randoms. Putting two or three good players into a group and let them act together will screw your model, like _FTD_ who played whooping 625 battles solo with 57,4% WR. His 2 Platoon games where 65,4% WR at 1525 games and 85% at 5800 games in 3 man groups.This still doesnt take his progress into account since I assume he doenst play solo anymore.

But still something to look at when seeing those skyhigh winrates.

  • Cool 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Beta Tester
572 posts

Maybe I'll digger into this a little. Will have to check which assumptions you made and why :-)

But well done so far.

As to be fair and add to the poster above: With divisions you have a serious impact on the outcome.

In a random battle with all single-queue guys it's...at least strange. Although I do know it is not totally random (lets just say I got the feeling I may influence the standard derivation :-) ) I can at least understand people who think it is - Because it feels like it. But as we all know, feelings and math don't do well together ^^

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
26 posts
4,162 battles

But one point: all written is only valid when it comes to solo randoms. Putting two or three good players into a group and let them act together will screw your model, like _FTD_ who played whooping 625 battles solo with 57,4% WR. His 2 Platoon games where 65,4% WR at 1525 games and 85% at 5800 games in 3 man groups.This still doesnt take his progress into account since I assume he doenst play solo anymore.

 

But still something to look at when seeing those skyhigh winrates.

 

A very good point, which I totally missed! But this only really affects _FTD_'s personal skill level and not the win rate vs luck reasoning. I update my advice: _FTD_, when you buy those lottery tickets, don't go alone. Bring two friends since that apparently that makes you incredibly lucky. #NoSkillInvolved

 

Edit: Actually this makes a pretty good case for skill over luck, since there is no reason that I can think of, that would make _FTD_ luckier in divisions than in solo queuing. Unless he/she is queuing with a rabbit's foot or something :)

Edited by Ciryonde

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
49 posts
406 battles

Great Post. So, my 68.83% WR in only 76 games is bob on for a 50% WR later on. Here I was thinking I was doing well. :(

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
26 posts
4,162 battles

Maybe I'll digger into this a little. Will have to check which assumptions you made and why :-)

 

Please do, my background is in statistical quality control, which is the art of knowing enough statistics to make other people believe that you know what you are doing without actually really knowing what you are doing yourself :)

 

Great Post. So, my 68.83% WR in only 76 games is bob on for a 50% WR later on. Here I was thinking I was doing well. :(

 

Nah, you should be in the clear, you're win rate is outside what could be expected by chance alone. :) But there are other caveats, which is why i pointed out that is kinda unrealistic to assume a constant win rate, such as the fact that players are generally better at the higher tiers and depending on your learning curve vs you tier progression that might affect your win rate. So, you are probably above average, but probably not by that much compared to an average player :)

Edited by Ciryonde

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Weekend Tester, In AlfaTesters
1,431 posts
5,599 battles

 

Edit: Actually this makes a pretty good case for skill over luck, since there is no reason that I can think of, that would make _FTD_ luckier in divisions than in solo queuing. Unless he/she is queuing with a rabbit's foot or something :)

Again: If you take 2 friends of whom you know are good with you, 3/12 players are sure to be good, or with other words 2/12 = 1/6 less chance to have braindead players around you. This stronly affects the team.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Beta Tester
4,603 posts
7,488 battles

So you estimated the probability of a coinflip and added a confidence interval.

 

Gotta love that people are all excited about that.

 

 

  • Cool 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
26 posts
4,162 battles

Again: If you take 2 friends of whom you know are good with you, 3/12 players are sure to be good, or with other words 2/12 = 1/6 less chance to have braindead players around you. This stronly affects the team.

 

 

Yes, that was my point as well, even though I might have been a little bit less clear about it :) It would be silly to argue that your personal win rate is based on luck and not your own skill and at the same time say that if you bring skilled people in a division, all of a sudden their skill starts affecting your win rate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Weekend Tester
612 posts

You should try to see how much luck has influence on WR, by doing some real thinking, and then using math to create a model you think holds up.

This is nonsense.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
978 posts
5,904 battles

You should try to see how much luck has influence on WR, by doing some real thinking, and then using math to create a model you think holds up.

This is nonsense.

 

 

Why is this nonsense?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Players
26 posts
4,162 battles

So you estimated the probability of a coinflip and added a confidence interval.

 

Don't rain on my parade... :(

 

Actually, what took the most time was writing the post in an accesible way. For me it would have been a lot easier just to write "Since the deviation from the mean of a binomial distribution is normally distributed, for sufficiently large samples, we will see a convergence towards the mean that will eliminate the factor of luck as the sample size grows, duh..." and be done with it. But the people who would understand that do not need this explained, and the people who do need this explained would not have understood that :P

 

You should try to see how much luck has influence on WR, by doing some real thinking, and then using math to create a model you think holds up.

 

Nah, I'm not interested in that since my model is robust enough to answer the question posed: "is win rate based on luck or skill?". Accurately modeling the effect of luck on win rate to answer that would be like using a pair of scissors to cut each individual straw in your lawn, effective, but not very efficient... 
Edited by Ciryonde
  • Cool 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Weekend Tester, In AlfaTesters
1,431 posts
5,599 battles

You should try to see how much luck has influence on WR, by doing some real thinking, and then using math to create a model you think holds up.

This is nonsense.

 

Luck is eleminated by large numbers. Everything else is skill in solo randoms.

Your post clearly shows you have not understood what he wrote and what it means.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Weekend Tester
585 posts
5,474 battles

Luck is eleminated by large numbers. Everything else is skill in solo randoms.

 

 

 

 

Assuming that there is no other factor involved, such as some form of active game management....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Beta Tester
4,603 posts
7,488 battles

 

Don't rain on my parade... :(

 

Actually, what took the most time was writing the post in an accesible way. For me it would have been a lot easier just to write "Since the deviation from the mean of a binomial distribution is normally distributed, for sufficiently large samples, we will see a convergence towards the mean that will eliminate the factor of luck as the sample size grows, duh..." and be done with it. But the people who would understand that do not need this explained, and the people who do need this explained would not have understood that :P

 

 

 

So you are saying you described a coinflip for people that have no clue about math.

 

The only thing that is related to WoWs are your examples, which describe that there are other factors involved, one of them being contribution to each game aka skill.

But since there are far more factors than that, I am not sure if you are serious or just trolling.

  • Cool 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[ZPT]
Players
191 posts

Great topic ! ! ! 

 

Simplistic analisys for simplistic minds :)

 

I do believe though that for any serious conclusion to be drawn there would need to be a more deep analysis considering a lot of variables, such as ship classes most played, nation of ships, tier of ships, match making variables, matchmaking changes in the period of time, time spent solo or group playing......there are so many variables to be accounted for that I don't think it would be possible to draw conclusions with any degree of certainty unless you spent one or 2 years analyzing it.

 

As it is, this reminds me of how stupid statistic can be, me and a friend bought 1 chicken, I ate it all ....but statistically speaking between the 2 of us we ate in average 1/2 chicken each....so yeah, keep it up :) 

 

But for crapand giggles it was worth it :D:D:D:D

 

 

Edited by Black0rchid
  • Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×