Winrates and playing for the daily win bonus

[FloRead]

Here's a mathematical question.

 

So I may have a bad daily playing habit. Every day, I play each ship till I win the daily bonus. If I lose, I repeat with the same ship till I win and get the daily bonus. The moment I win the daily bonus, I move on to the next ship I want to gain xp for. 

 

Now my husband noticed this behavior of mine and he said that I'm actually depressing my winrate because I promote my losing streaks but stop any chance of a win streak going. So, is he right? Am I gimping my winrate? I'm sort of alright with math but not great with statistics so feel free to go deep math in your explanation.

[waxx25]

Here's a mathematical question.

 

So I may have a bad daily playing habit. Every day, I play each ship till I win the daily bonus. If I lose, I repeat with the same ship till I win and get the daily bonus. The moment I win the daily bonus, I move on to the next ship I want to gain xp for. 

 

Now my husband noticed this behavior of mine and he said that I'm actually depressing my winrate because I promote my losing streaks but stop any chance of a win streak going. So, is he right? Am I gimping my winrate? I'm sort of alright with math but not great with statistics so feel free to go deep math in your explanation.

 

I win the first time i try it so no?

[juanxmar]

I usually mix'n'match, and never lose sleep over a not achieved daily win, some days RNG hates you, others you simply cant aim.

 

I would advise not to stick with 1 ship untill win, you get tunnel vision and "need the daily win" syndrome.

[Nechrom]

Depends.

If the reason you tend to get losing streaks is because you might not be as good with that particular ship, then continuing playing it might hurt your overall winrate. But assuming you're equally good with all ships, it won't matter when you decide to switch to another one. Winning the first battle with several ships in a row is also a winning streak.

 

Some do perform worse if they continue playing the same ship simply because their performance becomes worse the more they lose. But if you can play every battle without getting tilted by previous losses, then that won't matter.

[mtm78]

With me sticking to single ship usually results in higher session stats, it's the constant switching which can make me less able to 'auto pilot' a ship. 

 

That being said, switching between gunboat dd's to RN cl's for example isn't much of an issue as there are less differences then switching from Yamato to Akizuki for instance. 

[XbodzioXplX]

I usually mix'n'match, and never lose sleep over a not achieved daily win, some days RNG hates you, others you simply cant aim.

 

I would advise not to stick with 1 ship untill win, you get tunnel vision and "need the daily win" syndrome.

 

Same.

And I suggest you not to grind every line of every nations. Stick to 3-4 branches.

 

 

One thing works for me. If I loose and I feel that game doesn't like me I left the game for some 1-2 houres. Sometimes it works to get back with fresh mind.

[ColonelPete]

Mathematicly there is no problem (unless you start with a ship you are not good in). But losing again and again can demotivate you and increase your chance of losing.

Better to take a break or play a different ship.

[MrWastee]

i usually try each ship once, before starting again with those i had losses on.

[FloRead]

So there's no math behind win and loss probabilities and their streaks? I guess I can continue with what I'm doing.....

 

Got to T10 in both US and German cruiser lines, it's US and German DD lines, along with US BB and IJN cruisers which I do if I have time.

[Kazeshiki]

TodayI played about 8 games each on my Nurn and Buddy. All lost even though I tried everything, most games were t8 matches got 40k damage average. My team just keeps getting annihilated. I can't do much being bottom tier most of the time so just gave up for today.

[fnord_disc]

It doesn't make a difference statistically as long as you don't let losing streaks affect the quality of your play. There is no getting around the asymptotic probability limit, whether you play one game per day or ten games per day.

 

Any perceived 'losing streaks' would be offset by winning streaks (several days of winning the first game you play).

 

edit:

To elaborate more mathematically: We suppose that for a given ship your objective chances of winning due to personal skill over infinitely many games is P. As games -> inf, your WR -> P, regardless of the way you evaluate the games played.

 

 

[eliastion]

Here's a mathematical question.

 

So I may have a bad daily playing habit. Every day, I play each ship till I win the daily bonus. If I lose, I repeat with the same ship till I win and get the daily bonus. The moment I win the daily bonus, I move on to the next ship I want to gain xp for. 

 

Now my husband noticed this behavior of mine and he said that I'm actually depressing my winrate because I promote my losing streaks but stop any chance of a win streak going. So, is he right? Am I gimping my winrate? I'm sort of alright with math but not great with statistics so feel free to go deep math in your explanation.

 

Your husband is mostly wrong. Basically, if you win with one ship, then with another, then the next - it's a winning streak, right? I've had days where I 1st-winned, say, 7 ships in a row without a single defeat. Sounds like win streak  

 

Now, there are two aspects that actually may hurt your winrate by playing like that:

1. You play more with ships you're bad with. If you have a ship you're absolutely awful with, you'll keep playing it until you get a victory. So, you play more with ships you underperform with than with ones you perform well (this only hurts global winrate, not ship-specific winrates)

2. Frustration. If you focus too much on the need to get that first victory, you might find yourself tired and angry but still playing to get that f*cking victory. This can further hurt your performance and, by extension: winrate.

[aboomination]

Will your husband leave you if you start gimping his WR, too? 

If you really care about your WR...well, git gut - both of you.

[EsaTuunanen]

Now, there are two aspects that actually may hurt your winrate by playing like that:

1. You play more with ships you're bad with. If you have a ship you're absolutely awful with, you'll keep playing it until you get a victory. So, you play more with ships you underperform with than with ones you perform well (this only hurts global winrate, not ship-specific winrates)

In long term that should actually happen.

Unless every ships works equally well for getting wins...

 

 

[Pekoe_Darjeeling]

But losing again and again can demotivate you and increase your chance of losing.

 

It increases the chances to break my keyboard. And mouse.

[DreadRoberts]

Here's a mathematical question.

 

So I may have a bad daily playing habit. Every day, I play each ship till I win the daily bonus. If I lose, I repeat with the same ship till I win and get the daily bonus. The moment I win the daily bonus, I move on to the next ship I want to gain xp for. 

 

Now my husband noticed this behavior of mine and he said that I'm actually depressing my winrate because I promote my losing streaks but stop any chance of a win streak going. So, is he right? Am I gimping my winrate? I'm sort of alright with math but not great with statistics so feel free to go deep math in your explanation.

 

In the long run I think playing a variety of ships daily will help improve your winrate far more than banking on potential 'streaks', because you will not only learn the various mechanics which diff ships rely on to succeed but will also know how to counter them and exploit weaknesses through playing experience.

 

A winning streak based on knowledge and experience is far more likely than one based on luck and a losing streak is more easily avoided under the same parameters

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

Here's a mathematical question.

 

So I may have a bad daily playing habit. Every day, I play each ship till I win the daily bonus. If I lose, I repeat with the same ship till I win and get the daily bonus. The moment I win the daily bonus, I move on to the next ship I want to gain xp for. 

 

Now my husband noticed this behavior of mine and he said that I'm actually depressing my winrate because I promote my losing streaks but stop any chance of a win streak going. So, is he right? Am I gimping my winrate? I'm sort of alright with math but not great with statistics so feel free to go deep math in your explanation.

 

It is always best never to chase the daily win!

 

What I do nowadays is this:

 

• when I lose a battle I always change a ship
• I stop playing one ship for that day if I am -2 games with her altogether (i.e. 2 more loses than wins)
• I stop playing "Ranked" / "Random" for that day entirely if I am -4 games with all my ships combined (i.e. 4 more loses than wins)

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[Runner357]

I play most of my ships and try lots of different configurations on each ships along with trying different tactics. 

My WR has dropped since I got the German DDs. The non quitting solider in my willnot admit that the Z-52 is unplayable without division mates and my WR is taking a beating from it. 

 

Don't let your WR control how you play and enjoy the game. Those who look at your WR and judge you don't know this game. At all

 

If I want a good WR (which I sometimes go for) I keep playing the same few ships. But what's the fun in that in the long run? 

[mtm78]

My WR has dropped since I got the German DDs. The non quitting solider in my willnot admit that the Z-52 is unplayable without division mates and my WR is taking a beating from it. 

 

 

We can clearly see that big hit

 

[Juanx]

Hi all,

 

 

It is always best never to chase the daily win!

 

What I do nowadays is this:

 

• when I lose a battle I always change a ship
• I stop playing one ship for that day if I am -2 games with her altogether (i.e. 2 more loses than wins)
• I stop playing "Ranked" / "Random" for that day entirely if I am -4 games with all my ships combined (i.e. 4 more loses than wins)

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

 

 

So some days you play 4 games and call it a day? Odd...

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

 

 

So some days you play 4 games and call it a day? Odd...

 

 

Some days I can only play 1-2-3 games... many times 0... work and family...

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[Shaka_D]

Mathematicly there is no problem (unless you start with a ship you are not good in). But losing again and again can demotivate you and increase your chance of losing.

Better to take a break or play a different ship.

 

I have to agree with this completely, people (and me) tend to go full tilt when I start losing a lot of games in a row. My play becomes more reckless as I become more desperate, I make more mistakes. Switching to another ship, perhaps in lower tiers / another class, usually helps me psychologically and often helps break the losing streak. On the other hand, Bushwacker001 is probably the reason why I lose a lot of games. He used to steal my sandwiches at school when I was a young warthog.

[deadly_if_swallowed]

I did the same yesterday as I am currently grinding 2 ship lines, training some captains, and try to get Graf Spee asap (yesterday's 100% bonus came in handy). Only lost 1 of 9 games and got pretty nice results, too. These were all ships I feel quite confident with, except Chapayev which is still stock. So no, if you feel comfortable with the ships you are playing and your main intention is grinding, you don't give up on the opportunity to win more (as you have the same chance with every ship), but simply maximize your gainings.

 

If you lose games, you have two (three) options anyway:

1. play a different ship and see if you can do better

2. play the same ship and see if you can get the hang of it

(3. do something else entirely - sleeping is usually the best pick )

 

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

[Runner357]

 

 

We can clearly see that big hit

 

 

Haha my solo WR has! Silly boy

[Dragnorak]

I aim for 3 battles with 3 wins each night. I rotate bewteen Fujin, Shira and Yugumo mainly at the moment.