Win/Lose in a row

[JBJ7]

 

I am very angry.

I don't know why, I think that it is because wargaming balance and isn't the universe.

I played WOWS for several months and I saw this too many times this.
I win and I lost too many matches in a row. I played 15 matches today and I won 1 only WTF!. Sometimes this is upside down and I won many times and I lost a few times.

I hate this. This is boring, I didn't see this in another multiplayer game.

In any multiplayer game you can win one match and lose one match, win 2 and lose one, win one and lose 2, or win or los 3 in a row, but no 15!
I see this many times and other players told me the same.

Why? Is the balance? I think yes.

I have the won/lose ratio in 54%, and I did a lot of good matches today.

 

What do you think?

 

Forgive me for my english.

 

[Lemasive]

I am very angry.
I don't know why, I think that it is because wargaming balance and isn't the universe.
I played WOWS for several months and I saw this too many times this.
I win and I lost too many matches in a row. I played 15 matches today and I won 1 only WTF!. Sometimes this is upside down and I won many times and I lost a few times.

I hate this. This is boring, I didn't see this in another multiplayer game.
In any multiplayer game you can win one match and lose one match, win 2 and lose one, win one and lose 2, or win or los 3 in a row, but no 15!
I see this many times and other players told me the same.
Why? Is the balance? I think yes.
I have the won/lose ratio in 54%, and I did a lot of good matches today.

 

What do you think?

 

Forgive me for my english.

The muppets on this forum will say its just bad luck, the more experienced gamers will know this is because it is saturday and those teams were you should have won was ruined by weekend heroes.

[Venatacia]

Happens to us all. I had 18 losses and 4 wins. Before that I had 18 wins and 4 losses. It goes around and around like that because of the way WG system works and yes it's boring. Having matches that are fixed whether it be wins or losses, it's boring and frustrating but what else is there ?.

[triumphgt6]

Today, lost 3, won 3, lost 2 and then won 2. Played one of my best games losing and was rubbish in one of the wins!! Just the way it happens - still had fun!

 

[Purple_Alert]

Played 2 lost 2. Top in both on my team. Logged off till Monday.

[loppantorkel]

100% wins today. Quit while on top

 

[JBJ7]

 

Using the probability theory and the conditional probability.

 

1 match have:

1/2 probability to win or lose

X matches in a row have:

(1/2)^x probability to win or lose

 

Example:

If I played 15 matches today, and I lost 10 in a row.

This is (1/2)^10 = 0,0098 = 1/102
There is a probability of one in a hundred of losing 10 matches in a row.

 

I have a lot of luck. I hope that I win the lottery today also

 

[Userext]

sometimes problem is you. Yes you can be on top of your team by experience earned. But do you also remember those a(fillin)holes that does nothing till he is the last survivor in your team and then racks up a 3k damage because enemies ran towards him while not giving a damn about exposing weak points. You can do a whooping 200k damage but that doesnt mean you are being usefull to your team.

The online gaming rule #445849659670534583497: Look for mistakes at yourself first if you find non dont blame others thats just going to make you mad and you will make mistakes

[AmazingBeaver]

It's typical layout for PvP multiplayer. In world of warcraft I had similar win and lose streaks. It happens when the teams are not balanced gear (ship+tier) and skill wise.

[praetor_jax]

The muppets on this forum will say its just bad luck, the more experienced gamers will know this is because it is saturday and those teams were you should have won was ruined by weekend heroes.

 

Odd, you used to tell people that WG was rigging the matches? What changed your approach?

[XDukenukemX]

Ranked in WoWs is like championing a slot machine. Everybody can be lucky, personal skill is really not issue here.

In some games I was blown up before i did anything and we still won, in others I played like god and still lost to team running to furthest corner and doing nothing.

[WarburtonLee]

I am very angry.
I don't know why, I think that it is because wargaming balance and isn't the universe.
I played WOWS for several months and I saw this too many times this.
I win and I lost too many matches in a row. I played 15 matches today and I won 1 only WTF!. Sometimes this is upside down and I won many times and I lost a few times.

I hate this. This is boring, I didn't see this in another multiplayer game.
In any multiplayer game you can win one match and lose one match, win 2 and lose one, win one and lose 2, or win or los 3 in a row, but no 15!
I see this many times and other players told me the same.
Why? Is the balance? I think yes.
I have the won/lose ratio in 54%, and I did a lot of good matches today.

 

What do you think?

 

Forgive me for my english.

 

It happens, often actually

[eliastion]

Fun fact - if you ask people to write down 20 results of a coin toss and ask them to either actually toss a coin or just fill it up, it's pretty easy to (with high accuracy) tell apart the tossers and those faking it.

Do you know how? It's the streaks. The guys actually tossing the coin are likely to have long streaks and uneven numbers of Heads and Tails.

Those faking it will know the chance is 50% so they'll create a pattern exactly like the one you describe - a head, a tail, two heads, a tail, a head...

 

So if other PvPs actually work like you describe them, almost no streaks longer than 3-4 battles, I have bad news: they're probably rigged to give you a tougher match after each win and vice versa. Well, unless that's an open policy of their MM system.

 

Also, there's another thing, ESPECIALLY in Ranked where your impact on the result is bigger: perhaps you're just having a good/bad day and playing above/below your normal level. In Ranked where you're matched within certain Rank bracket and you yourself constitute 1/7 of your team, you playing especially good or bad gives much better chances of generating a streak than it's normally the case. That's where "if you're having a losing streak, take a break" advice comes from. 

[JiksTBS]

Win/loss streaks will happen, even if each game was an independent event, i.e. one loss does not increase the likelihood of another. For a completely average player with a 50% WR the chances of this happening is exactly the same chance of tossing a coin ten times and getting heads every time, i.e. 1 in 1024. So if 20000 average people play 10 games each today we would expect about 20 of them to lose the lot. Note above an above average WR reduces the chances of this happening dramatically, for 61.8% WR it's 1 in 15100 or so ...

 

However, the games are not independent events as we are, unluckily, human. After several losses we tend to be distracted, full of frustration, anger, etc and start playing worse, taking risks, making mistakes and such. Therefore these disastrous runs of defeats happen more often than they should which is way many people will tell you "after 3 straight defeats, walk away."

[JBJ7]

 

Exactly. In any match probably there are a good player and a bad player, and probably your team have a bad balance or have a good balance, but the probability is the 50% always. All these variables have a 50% chance of appearing on your team. But is a strange coincidence that this probability don't be fulfill in a row matches and for many players.

There must be some variables in the system that cause these strange coincidences and the randomness don't work.

 

[Xevious_Red]

Using the probability theory and the conditional probability.

 

1 match have:
1/2 probability to win or lose

X matches in a row have:
(1/2)^x probability to win or lose

 

Example:
If I played 15 matches today, and I lost 10 in a row.
This is (1/2)^10 = 0,0098 = 1/102
There is a probability of one in a hundred of losing 10 matches in a row.

 

I have a lot of luck. I hope that I win the lottery today also

You assume you have a 50/50 chance of winning. This is true for a coin but not for two teams of varying skill.

 

If you were to play 10 games of chess against the world's number 1, would you think you were just incredibly unlucky to lose all 10?

[JiksTBS]

Exactly. In any match probably there are a good player and a bad player, and probably your team have a bad balance or have a good balance, but the probability is the 50% always. All these variables have a 50% chance of appearing on your team. But is a strange coincidence that this probability don't be fulfill in a row matches and for many players.

There must be some variables in the system that cause these strange coincidences and the randomness don't work.

 

Thing is, roll the dice enough times, something unlikely will happen. We don't notice the 99 times nothing unusual happens, just the 1 time in 100 it does. Also we tend to notice the bad things more than the good - I know exactly what my worst loss streak was - 11 games, while I have no clue what my best run of wins is ...

 

I lost those 11 games because by the end of it I was playing like cretin not because of a sinister plot. The MM doesn't even know things like WR, WTR, etc. so even it it wanted to plot against me it couldn't. Also good players can have bad days even if their numbers look OK. I know I'm not up to form today but there's no way the MM could know this, for example.

 

So, it's a combination of randomness, large numbers and human factors.

[praetor_jax]

Fun fact - if you ask people to write down 20 results of a coin toss and ask them to either actually toss a coin or just fill it up, it's pretty easy to (with high accuracy) tell apart the tossers and those faking it.

Do you know how? It's the streaks. The guys actually tossing the coin are likely to have long streaks and uneven numbers of Heads and Tails.

Those faking it will know the chance is 50% so they'll create a pattern exactly like the one you describe - a head, a tail, two heads, a tail, a head...

i have to remember this example - short, but on point.

 

[Adrian1914]

Yeah, sometimes the win/loss streak is so annoying. LIke recently I remember I won like 10 matches in a roll! I mean WTF?! MM is definitely rigged!

[Solo_Wing_Potato]

You assume you have a 50/50 chance of winning. This is true for a coin but not for two teams of varying skill.

^ This

 

If all players on each team were playing exactly the same ships with exactly the same modules and captain skills as well as being perfectly equal in capability then you could say the chance for a win or loss would be 50%.  However as mentioned above teams are composed of differing skilled players in different ships, a team with more good players is 'likely' to beat one with less skilled players.........however sometimes the later team will win, maybe due to RNG, or a poor play by someone who should know better.  Either way there are far to many variables at play in each match for a 50% chance of a win or loss.

[AnotherDuck]

There's also that the results tend to encourage the same results later on. If you lose, you get annoyed, and are more likely to play poorly. If you win, you're more likely to keep doing what you thought you were doing, and more likely to keep paying attention to what's going on in the games.

[Gatt]

JB17, do you still care about W/R and win/loss streaks? I have often had more fun in lost games rather than in won games.

 

Why? Because I play my game, help my team mates, cap and defend my bases, try to damage and destroy enemies. I seldom give a damn about statistics.

 

Its a lost cause, you cant win against WG RGN and MM. Relax and have fun.

[Purple_Alert]

JB17, do you still care about W/R and win/loss streaks? I have often had more fun in lost games rather than in won games.

 

Why? Because I play my game, help my team mates, cap and defend my bases, try to damage and destroy enemies. I seldom give a damn about statistics.

 

Its a lost cause, you cant win against WG RGN and MM. Relax and have fun.

This. 

[beercrazy]

had 13 losses in a row recently and I have a 58% win rate

is it the game rigging it? nope

is it my teams fault and not mine? nope

is it just being unlucky? yup

 

I try and take a small break if I get 5 losses in a row even if its just go and make a brew and sit away from the game for 10 mins

[loppantorkel]

I try and take a small break if I get 5 losses in a row even if its just go and make a brew and sit away from the game for 10 mins

 

"Brew"

Can be used when referring to having a beer.
Also may be in reference to smoking weed.
Also less urbanly used in England to describe having a cup of tea.

 

How does that work out for you?