The Maths on Santa Crate Drop Rates

[black_falcon120]

Hi All, 

 

In my yearly mind games to try and avoid buying Satan Santa crates, and my desperate need for a Belfast, I crunched the numbers in an attempt to cure my hunger for these crates. I found the expected cost per ship for a TX and a special ship very helpful in terms of deterring irresponsible spending. The bulk price is the 20% discount you get for buying in bulk. 

 

 

I note that if you have more of the lower tiered ships, your odds are better, I could run the numbers, but I think it is largely theoretical as most people seem to think the game starts at tier 8, and don't buy hordes of t5-7 premiums.  I also note that most players will have some T9/X premiums from coal farming, which skews their odds negatively. I am unclear on how the compensation mechanics work, e.g. if you role a (T7) hood, and you already have her, does it re-roll into any premium ship, or just a T5-7 ship? 

 

Read the spoiler for methodological notes. 

Spoiler

 

• I note this excludes doubloons, and premium time. For doubloons, you get a 5% chance to get the container's nominal (ie not bulk) price. 
• I used the GBP (£) cost and then applied a 20% discount to the price. (I was lazy).

 

 

Best, 

Black_falcon120 

[Karkong_the_Impaler]

Common sense should be enough. But yes, maybe this helps...

[black_falcon120]

1 hour ago, Karkong_the_Impaler said:

Common sense should be enough. But yes, maybe this helps...

I mean you are right, but my they got a lot less attractive when I realised it would cost me a minimum of £280 for a chance at a rare ship….

[22cm]

9 minutes ago, black_falcon120 said:

I mean you are right, but my they got a lot less attractive when I realised it would cost me a minimum of £280 for a chance at a rare ship….

You always have a chance for a rare ship... to have a really good chance, you need to have all the non rare ships.

[black_falcon120]

5 hours ago, 22cm said:

You always have a chance for a rare ship... to have a really good chance, you need to have all the non rare ships.

Yes, but WG are very good at hiding the cost per ship, judging by the drops people are publishing, crates look far more generous than they are.

[hgbn_dk]

8 hours ago, black_falcon120 said:

Hi All, 

 

In my yearly mind games to try and avoid buying Satan Santa crates, and my desperate need for a Belfast, I crunched the numbers in an attempt to cure my hunger for these crates. I found the expected cost per ship for a TX and a special ship very helpful in terms of deterring irresponsible spending. The bulk price is the 20% discount you get for buying in bulk. 

 

 

I note that if you have more of the lower tiered ships, your odds are better, I could run the numbers, but I think it is largely theoretical as most people seem to think the game starts at tier 8, and don't buy hordes of t5-7 premiums.  I also note that most players will have some T9/X premiums from coal farming, which skews their odds negatively. I am unclear on how the compensation mechanics work, e.g. if you role a (T7) hood, and you already have her, does it re-roll into any premium ship, or just a T5-7 ship? 

 

Read the spoiler for methodological notes. 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

• I note this excludes doubloons, and premium time. For doubloons, you get a 5% chance to get the container's nominal (ie not bulk) price. 
• I used the GBP (£) cost and then applied a 20% discount to the price. (I was lazy).

 

 

 

 

Best, 

Black_falcon120 

The way I read it. It will pick a ship from the same group you don't have and if you have all ships from that group it will pick one from another group.

[black_falcon120]

2 hours ago, hgbn_dk said:

The way I read it. It will pick a ship from the same group you don't have and if you have all ships from that group it will pick one from another group.

Ah ok - thank you :)