Satan crate drop rates and ship list

[arttuperkunas]

No short list this year (kind of)

 

Interestingly Agincourt is not a "rare" ship, but a normal T5 ship. So drop chance for that ought to be quite high if you already have all or most of the other T5s

 

https://blog.worldofwarships.com/blog/251

[Captain_Breeze]

Got Agincourt, quite a fun ship if built for secondaries. 

[invicta2012]

OK, so that means most people are going to get Agincourt, Leone, Jurua and Mysore. 

[K82J]

According to the NA forum, Agincourt is planned to sell in the shop next year, probably thats why she is not a rare ship.

[Ocsimano18]

Edit: corrected the chances, mega is the best both for any kind and T8+ ships. The bigger, the better.

 

I did some calculations. For 30 certificates, you can have 30 small, 10 big or 6 mega gifts.

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 ship:

30 small containers: 53.21%

10 big containers: 61.06%

6 mega containers: 64.87%

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 T8+ ship:

30 small containers: 13.96%

10 big containers: 18.29%

6 mega containers: 21.72%

So if you want to get a ship, then the mega ones are the best bang for your certificates. If you want to get a T8+ ship, then also the mega ones are the best bang for your certificates.

 

The probable doubloon (750) and coal (5250) yield is mathematically  the same for all the 3 crate portfolios, so it should have no influence on your crate choice. Also the expected premium days (around 10) is nearly the same. (I did not provide the calculations for it)

 

Math details are below:

 

 

 

 

[Pandafaust]

9 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

I did some calculations. For 30 certificates, you can have 30 small, 10 big or 6 mega gifts.

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 ship:

30 small containers: 53.21%

10 big containers: 61.06%

6 mega containers: 53.56%

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 T8+ ship:

30 small containers: 13.96%

10 big containers: 18.29%

6 mega containers: 21.72%

So if you want to get a ship, then the big ones are the best bang for your certificates. If you want to get a T8+ ship, then the mega ones are the best bang for your certificates.

 

Math details are below:

 

Slight input error on the formula there bud, the mega crates have a 16% ship drop chance rather than 12%, so the chance of at least 1 ship on 6 of them is approx 64.87%.

[Ocsimano18]

5 minutes ago, Pandafaust said:

Slight input error on the formula there bud, the mega crates have a 16% ship drop chance rather than 12%, so the chance of at least 1 ship on 6 of them is approx 64.87%.

Thanks, corrected it. Also added the expected doubloon and coal yield, and a note about expected premium time.

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

35 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

I did some calculations. For 30 certificates, you can have 30 small, 10 big or 6 mega gifts.

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 ship:

30 small containers: 53.21%

10 big containers: 61.06%

6 mega containers: 53.56%

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 T8+ ship:

30 small containers: 13.96%

10 big containers: 18.29%

6 mega containers: 21.72%

So if you want to get a ship, then the big ones are the best bang for your certificates. If you want to get a T8+ ship, then the mega ones are the best bang for your certificates.

 

The probable doubloon (750) and coal (5250) yield is mathematically  the same for all the 3 crate portfolios, so it should have no influence on your crate choice. Also the expected premium days (around 10) is nearly the same. (I did not provide the calculations for it)

 

Math details are below:

 

 

Much obliged kind sir!

 

I will have 40 Certificates and this will translate into 8 Santa's Mega Gift containers... so... 75% chance of me getting a ship of some kind...

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

 

 

P.S.

Isn't the probability 16% and not 12% as you put in table?

 

Santa's Mega Gift container includes one of the following rewards (the percentage indicates the drop chances of each group of items):

• A Premium or special ship, including rare and Tier X ships, with a Port slot and a 10-skill-point Commander — 16%

 

Ahh... just saw you saw it as well...

[WorthyOpponent]

Let's also not forget the fact that there's a pity system now

I mean, people aren't likely to hit it for free, but if someone opens a lot of crates and ends up not getting a ship, they can get one for a low cost

[Seraphice]

3 minutes ago, WorthyOpponent said:

Let's also not forget the fact that there's a pity system now

I mean, people aren't likely to hit it for free, but if someone opens a lot of crates and ends up not getting a ship, they can get one for a low cost 

Hey!

It is indeed correct that the pity system is not likely hit, as it is mostly designed for extremely unlucky cases. In most cases, people will already receive a premium ship from a crate before reaching this number.

Fair seas captain!

~Sera

 

[Purnylla]

39 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

Edit: corrected the chances, mega is the best both for any kind and T8+ ships. The bigger, the better.

 

I did some calculations. For 30 certificates, you can have 30 small, 10 big or 6 mega gifts.

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 ship:

30 small containers: 53.21%

10 big containers: 61.06%

6 mega containers: 64.87%

It gives you the following chances to get at least 1 T8+ ship:

30 small containers: 13.96%

10 big containers: 18.29%

6 mega containers: 21.72%

So if you want to get a ship, then the mega ones are the best bang for your certificates. If you want to get a T8+ ship, then also the mega ones are the best bang for your certificates.

 

The probable doubloon (750) and coal (5250) yield is mathematically  the same for all the 3 crate portfolios, so it should have no influence on your crate choice. Also the expected premium days (around 10) is nearly the same. (I did not provide the calculations for it)

 

Math details are below:

 

 

But that's the chances of dropping 1 ship. Obviously, more containers could potentially drop more ships. Although extremely unlikely, buying 30 small containers could potentially drop you 30 ships, while 6 mega containers can never give you more than 6 ships.

 

So what's the best crates to buy if you're a collector and just like to get as many premium ships as possible? I'm horrible with this kind of math, but I've been wondering what would be the best crates to buy. 

[Ocsimano18]

9 minutes ago, Purnylla said:

 

But that's the chances of dropping 1 ship. Obviously, more containers could potentially drop more ships. Although extremely unlikely, buying 30 small containers could potentially drop you 30 ships, while 6 mega containers can never give you more than 6 ships.

 

So what's the best crates to buy if you're a collector and just like to get as many premium ships as possible? I'm horrible with this kind of math, but I've been wondering what would be the best crates to buy. 

It was taken into account, I gave the chance for getting at least one ship, the chance of getting 1 or 2 or 3 or etc. ships, not exactly one ship. The expected number of ships also the best for the mega (see the mu values in the screenshots)

[Pandafaust]

6 minutes ago, Purnylla said:

 

But that's the chances of dropping 1 ship. Obviously, more containers could potentially drop more ships. Although extremely unlikely, buying 30 small containers could potentially drop you 30 ships, while 6 mega containers can never give you more than 6 ships.

 

So what's the best crates to buy if you're a collector and just like to get as many premium ships as possible? I'm horrible with this kind of math, but I've been wondering what would be the best crates to buy. 

It's not the chance of dropping one ship, it's the chance of dropping *at least* one ship.  More properly, it's the inverse probability of dropping no ships.  If you're after ships only, with no consideration for the relative values of flags, camos etc then mega crates are the best bet. If you wake up having won the lottery and then spent the night with a leprechaun, then go full out on the mini crates.

[Hakssor]

6 minutes ago, Purnylla said:

 

But that's the chances of dropping 1 ship. Obviously, more containers could potentially drop more ships. Although extremely unlikely, buying 30 small containers could potentially drop you 30 ships, while 6 mega containers can never give you more than 6 ships.

 

So what's the best crates to buy if you're a collector and just like to get as many premium ships as possible? I'm horrible with this kind of math, but I've been wondering what would be the best crates to buy. 

Still the mega containers are the best crates. What are you saying there is purely theoretical and the chance of getting 30 ships from 30 small are abysmal. If the distribution of luck is normal then mega containers should give more ships in the long run.

[undutchable80]

so, no shortlist like last year's Makaraovs?

[KillStealBoss]

From the ship list I'm only missing the Yukon and Jurua... Eh I thought they'll add Carnot and Brandenburg too. Meh. I'm going to get 19 big crates from my certificates (57 T10s for now the 58th Schliffen will give me another small crate cause I'm not going to get anymore T10s in the near future). 

[Seraphice]

21 minutes ago, undutchable80 said:

so, no shortlist like last year's Makaraovs?

That is correct. There will be no so called "shortlists" this year. All the information regarding the container content and their mechanics is in the devblog

Fair seas captain!

~Sera

[Verblonde]

Oooo, I can get a Hayate at last...! Shiny.

 

 

[Karasu_Browarszky]

Now.. what if you don't want no ship?...

[Ocsimano18]

3 minutes ago, Karasu_Hidesuke said:

Now.. what if you don't want no ship?...

Don’t buy crates.

[Verblonde]

It's not all good news though: assuming I get a ship, the insolent logic of nightmare dictates it'll be Yukon...

 

[RuruushuVuiBuritania]

2 minutes ago, Verblonde said:

It's not all good news though: assuming I get a ship, the insolent logic of nightmare dictates it'll be Yukon...

 

Same for me. But afterwards, I can start farming steel! The Yukon-pocalypse begins soon!

[Karasu_Browarszky]

16 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

Don’t buy crates.

 

Don't buy crates and... like what frame the certs and put them up on the wall?...

[PaP_Mentoles]

But nobody mentioned that you don't get doubloons anymore, instead you get a shite ammount of steel. WeeGreedy is rising the prices and reduced the "offered" goods.

Didn't anyone noticed that this year's "Black Friday" combat missions gave 40% less doubloons than these from the past?

Good job WeeGreedy.

[Seraphice]

21 minutes ago, Karasu_Hidesuke said:

Now.. what if you don't want no ship?...

 

1 minute ago, Karasu_Hidesuke said:

Don't buy crates and... like what frame the certs and put them up on the wall?...

Heya there sailor!

You can still get other rewards such as cool, camouflages, signals or premium time out of the containers.
If you have all the ships that can possibly drop, you will receive steel instead

If you simply dont want them, well... What can I say?

Fair seas captain!

~Sera