Chance of getting 11 losses in a row with a ship

[_TRider_]

The chance of getting 11 losses in a row with a ship, assuming 50/50 chance of winning if everything evens out from game to game is 5 in 10.000. However, it happened to me today. Makes me wondering...

[KielYourself]

Makes me wondering... is it the ship? or the captain?

[MrWastee]

u lose? switch ship, switch tier... i do every match, no matter if win or loss. at least switching ship... keep on losing? switch tier

 

 

2cts

[Takethatyoubeast]

I go with a “Winner stays on” policy but even then I’ll change ships every so often to keep it interesting 

 

If you are in a rut then change tiers or ship type 

[Flosedus]

As you said, if the chance is 50:50, probability is low. Hence, it is very likely, that you influence the games negatively ^^

[MarChil]

The chance of that will stay high as long as 200 games players get a T8 ship from a lootbox or buy it. Learn to live with it, or leave.

They just tell you to be patient and understanding to them. With other words they say: we don't care, it's your problem as a player, swallow it.

 

I do wonder when they are going to insult the playerbase with another video full of made up 'efforts' and condescending developers telling us it's all in our heads.

 

Good luck with your decision.

 

EDIT: Always nice to see the big shots tell you it's your own fault, it really feels like a warm bath.

[geschlittert]

48 minutes ago, _TRider_ said:

The chance of getting 11 losses in a row with a ship, assuming 50/50 chance of winning if everything evens out from game to game is 5 in 10.000. However, it happened to me today. Makes me wondering...

i looked at your stats with devonshire and have to say that it is a you problem. 26k avg damage is something that is bad at T3, let alone t7. so i would say that you are a 40% player in this ship which makes the possibility of losing 11 times in a row 0,3%. which isnt high but definitely no where near impossible.

 

To compare it: on my really good days i am a 70% player and i had a winstreak of 21 games once, which has a probability of 0,06%

[Bear__Necessities]

There is only 1 consistent factor in all your games. 

[ColonelPete]

48 minutes ago, _TRider_ said:

The chance of getting 11 losses in a row with a ship, assuming 50/50 chance of winning if everything evens out from game to game is 5 in 10.000. However, it happened to me today. Makes me wondering...

• maybe the win chance is not 50%...
• if the chance for that occurance is 5 in 10.000, then that means it happens regularly in this game, you were just the "unlucky" one

[Stockensprotz]

I tend to have such streaks too. And quite often really. It usually goes like this:

1st game: 3 out of 4 DDs on my team dead after 4 minutes.

2nd game: 2 of 2 DDs on my team dead after 2 minutes.

3rd game: Division of 3 DDs drives into C-cap, pops smoke and sits there together in the smoke until the torps arrive after about 3 minutes.

4th game: 1 DD decides to spot the enemies at A/J-line, the other is dead after 2 minutes.

...

 

And all I want to do is gain some XP with the Friedrich der Große to get the T10 before it is moved to coal. But then again - it is my fault. I am the only constant. Its totally random. 

 

Btw: I believe that a large amount of toxic conversations could be removed by simply getting rid of the win-condition in the daily missions (or a brainteaser for players before they are allowed into battle like: "What is 5+3?", "Are you wearing pants?", "Are those pants over your legs or your head?"). If you're like me and have a limited amount of time to play in the evening and you get team after team of imbec... i mean, ehm, ... you get random event after totally random event (that you could have prevented if you just had moved your battleship in front of your DDs before the torps arrive, so its your fault, you are the only constant) you tend to get more salty as you see your chances (of even getting the 3rd daily mission finished) dwindling. Removing the win condition and maybe upping the needed XP/damage would help people to ignore the teammates (as you probably should for your mental health in this team-based combat game) and focus on ones own enjoyment. But then again - I am not a unicum, so what do i know.

[ColonelPete]

12 minutes ago, Stockensprotz said:

Removing the win condition and maybe upping the needed XP/damage would help people to ignore the teammates (as you probably should for your mental health in this team-based combat game) and focus on ones own enjoyment. But then again - I am not a unicum, so what do i know.

Looks like you are looking for a farming game. You can play Diablo or Torchlight solo and start up some random dungeon and just beat up creeps that cannot really hurt you.

[Stockensprotz]

Vor 2 Minuten, ColonelPete sagte:

Looks like you are looking for a farming game. You can play Diablo or Torchlight solo and start up some random dungeon and just beat up creeps that cannot really hurt you.

Might be. Do you know of a good farming game with battleships? (Coop in this game does not count because even there it is your own team that is the obstacle.) I don't want to play as an old dude in robes or a metal bikini who is throwing beanbags at the aesthetically challenged while screaming "Frostshock!" at the top of his lungs.

[MarChil]

I really think the middle ground group (say 49-51 WR types, just good enough to generally not suck, but not good enough to carry) would be helped by B/S/G league in randoms. But I doubt it fits in with WG's business model. I rather wait a bit longer and know I have a team that is matched then have to cycle trough a loosing streak every couple of days. Not facing 10K+ games people would also give me an opertunity to learn, instead of being blasted away without knowing what I did wrong. Fighting 200 games T8's isn't really teaching me anything and gets old rather fast. I don't really need hydro BB's blindly sailing broadside into my torps to feel good about myself or DD's that think they have to torp me instead of gunning me down for that matter. Playing a cat and mouse game with a somewhat equal teaches me more, is more fun and gives me a much better game regardless of the outcome.

 

But I doubt I'm the first to think of this, i'm just to lazy to read all the threads. So I'll just settle for 'it's all my own fault', I'm just there to make the good players feel better and give the lesser a missareble time. That is 50/50, somewhat.

[300ConfirmedKills]

If you throw a pack of cards in the air, any particular arrangement they may land in would have a very low probability, but nobody wonders about that.

[geschlittert]

4 minutes ago, 300ConfirmedKills said:

If you throw a pack of cards in the air, any particular arrangement they may land in would have a very low probability, but nobody wonders about that.

0,3% isnt even that low

[Capra76]

2 hours ago, _TRider_ said:

The chance of getting 11 losses in a row with a ship, assuming 50/50 chance of winning if everything evens out from game to game is 5 in 10.000. However, it happened to me today. Makes me wondering...

 

5/10,000, equals 1/2,000, you've played 4,000 games thus you're overdue for that run of luck.

[MarChil]

Depends, if you would repeat it under exactly the same conditions in exactly the same way.... I doubt even the devs know exactly how the MM algorithm functions these days. 

 

edit: That's refering to the deck of cards 

[Camperdown]

Just a statistical note: it is (if you calculated correctly) 5 in 10,000 over the entire player base. So if it is entirely random, it should happen to 5 people in any 10K games.

Rare, but it would only be strange if it didn't happen.

[Yedwy]

2 hours ago, Stockensprotz said:

Might be. Do you know of a good farming game with battleships? (Coop in this game does not count because even there it is your own team that is the obstacle.) I don't want to play as an old dude in robes or a metal bikini who is throwing beanbags at the aesthetically challenged while screaming "Frostshock!" at the top of his lungs.

Well you could play in training Room alone vs bots?

[Nibenay78]

5 hours ago, _TRider_ said:

The chance of getting 11 losses in a row with a ship, assuming 50/50 chance of winning if everything evens out from game to game is 5 in 10.000. However, it happened to me today. Makes me wondering...

0,5^11 = 0.000488 or 0.0488%

 

edit: thats 1 to 2048 just to be clear...

 

Sounds rather commonplace to me. 

It would be completely obviously rigged if a 50% player lost every second game...

 

for those particularly interested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

[venderbomb]

5 hours ago, ColonelPete said:

Looks like you are looking for a farming game. You can play Diablo or Torchlight solo and start up some random dungeon and just beat up creeps that cannot really hurt you.

33,000 comments.....32,999 negative, git gawd comments!🤣

 

 

 

 

[Johnny_Moneto]

Vor 10 Stunden, Bear__Necessities sagte:

There is only 1 consistent factor in all your games. 

The WG "this account is rigged" flag?

[ColonelPete]

4 hours ago, venderbomb said:

33,000 comments.....32,999 negative, git gawd comments

Yes, you clearly do not know what you are talking about.

And a person who does not want to lose, should play a different game. That is actually help.

[arttuperkunas]

Survival rate in Devon5hit also seems really low (below 20%). Not blowing up is pretty important for affecting the outcome of the match.

[Aethervoxx]

11 losses in a row with a ship is entirely possible if one motors out & dies quickly 11 times in a row.