Chances of fire

[SmokinSerj]

 

The marketing states that Mainz has a chance of setting fire of 8.5%, right?

 

 

 

Though, in this game I hit 328 times but only set 7 fires. A simple calculation says that's only 2.13 % !!!!!!

 

Did I miss something?

Have to mention there were mainly two victims of my HEs. Two Pommerns. I'm not sure if that makes the difference.

 

[inkedsoulz]

7 minutes ago, SmokinSerj said:

 

The marketing states that Mainz has a chance of setting fire of 8.5%, right?

 

 

 

Though, in this game I hit 328 times but only set 7 fires. A simple calculation says that's only 2.13 % !!!!!!

 

Did I miss something?

Have to mention there were mainly two victims of my HEs. Two Pommerns. I'm not sure if that makes the difference.

 

 

your enemies might be running commander skills that decrease your fire chance.

[Trench4nt]

Vor 28 Minuten, inkedsoulz sagte:

 

your enemies might be running commander skills that decrease your fire chance.

 

Plus damage con upgrade 1.

In addition, you may shot a section that already was on fire.

[asalonen]

2 hours ago, SmokinSerj said:

Did I miss something?

Have to mention there were mainly two victims of my HEs. Two Pommerns. I'm not sure if that makes the difference.

Many things are in play here:

 

Mainz shells' fire chance 8.5 % is only the starting point. It is the base fire chance. 

 

The Pommerns, as tier 9 battleships, have a fire resistance of 43 %. There's a ship modification that further buffs this, and most battleship players would choose it.

 

If you hit a section of ship already in fire you cannot set another. Note that Pommerns commonly use the Fire Prevention skill which combines the two center sections into one, and this greatly reduces your chances.

[RenamedUser_92906789]

And also:

Everything in this game is RNG (dice rolle) controlled.

 

[Johnny_Moneto]

Vor 3 Stunden, SmokinSerj sagte:

 

The marketing states that Mainz has a chance of setting fire of 8.5%, right?

 

 

 

Though, in this game I hit 328 times but only set 7 fires. A simple calculation says that's only 2.13 % !!!!!!

 

Did I miss something?

Have to mention there were mainly two victims of my HEs. Two Pommerns. I'm not sure if that makes the difference.

 

Kindly follow the link to find out about the fire probability calculation:

https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire

[WeGreedy]

4 hours ago, SmokinSerj said:

The marketing states that Mainz has a chance of setting fire of 8.5%, right?

That's probably the same marketing saying Atlanta is an AA cruiser. 

[YabbaCoe]

Před 6 hodinami SmokinSerj řekl/a:

 

The marketing states that Mainz has a chance of setting fire of 8.5%, right?

 

 

 

Though, in this game I hit 328 times but only set 7 fires. A simple calculation says that's only 2.13 % !!!!!!

 

Did I miss something?

Have to mention there were mainly two victims of my HEs. Two Pommerns. I'm not sure if that makes the difference.

 

As mentioned here, there can be plenty ways how to change this percentage of a chance to set on fire. 

When you have 8.5% to set on fire written, it means that every single shell have the same chance to set on fire. 

Also Fire prevention Expert commander skill can make it lower.

Also it depends on if your target ship is currently running Damage Control Party, or if that hit section is already under fire and also if that section is already destroyed (being visible as black). In those situations you simply can't set that section on fire. 

[MementoMori_6030]

Vor 2 Stunden, WeGreedy sagte:

That's probably the same marketing saying Atlanta Yubari is an AA cruiser. 

[Yamashiro42]

7 hours ago, SmokinSerj said:

 

The marketing states that Mainz has a chance of setting fire of 8.5%, right?

 

 

 

Though, in this game I hit 328 times but only set 7 fires. A simple calculation says that's only 2.13 % !!!!!!

 

Did I miss something?

Have to mention there were mainly two victims of my HEs. Two Pommerns. I'm not sure if that makes the difference.

 

You should delve into the wows wiki article, the answers are there.

Basically that 8.5% fire chance is a basis before further reduction based on the target ship. And also you cannot set a fire if you hit a part that is already on fire or if you hit a ship with active dcp.

 

Are you sure that none of these 328 shells hit a part of enemy that was not already burning, either from one of your 7 fires or from someone else's ones?

[SmokinSerj]

Thank you all. o7. It's more clear now and, beside other things I already knew (but actually failed to combine the information - like the fact I cannot set in fire a section that's already burning or destroyed),  I learned a couple of new things:

 

5 hours ago, asalonen said:

Pommerns commonly use the Fire Prevention skill which combines the two center sections into one, and this greatly reduces your chances.

 

38 minutes ago, Yamashiro42 said:

... you cannot set a fire [...] if you hit a ship with active dcp.

 

... and I also have to dig deeper into that fire resistance.

 

 

38 minutes ago, Yamashiro42 said:

Are you sure that none of these 328 shells hit a part of enemy that was not already burning, either from one of your 7 fires or from someone else's ones?

Clearly I can't be sure... they were hunting me at around 12-17km most of the time, and I was also busy WASD-ing, aiming, zooming out to see surroundings, etc (the usual) ... didn't actually count the hits :))

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BielayaSmert]

My experience yesterday with Wargaming Number Generator:

 

- Eendracht with flags and Demo expert --> Chance of fire 13,5%

Almost 400 hits. 5 fires (Defeat)

 

- Ibuki --> Chance of fire 17%

78 hits. 0 fires (of course another Defeat)

 

Its funny to see that when a member of a división suffers very bad WNG usually the other two guys suffers it too... and the battle becomes a defeat. Usually a steamroll defeat.

Of course the opposite also happens… very good WNG --> victory

 

… but no problem, I´m sure that me and my team mates are suffering a clear case of confirmation bias.

 

 

[tocqueville8]

8 hours ago, SmokinSerj said:

Though, in this game I hit 328 times but only set 7 fires. A simple calculation says that's only 2.13 % !!!!!!

8.5% * 0.43 (ship coefficient) * 0.9 (Fire Prevention) * 0.95 (Dmg Con Mod 1) * 328 = 10.25 fires

 

Assuming some shells fell on parts already on fire (especially the superstructure, the first thing one hits), that 7 number makes sense.

[SmokinSerj]

Oooo K ... so my calculation was way too simple :)))

[Johnny_Moneto]

Vor 5 Stunden, SmokinSerj sagte:

Oooo K ... so my calculation was way too simple :)))

It's not your fault. The game makes it look simple but there is a lot more to know than the game presents at first.

NB: Many very good players have an extensive knowledge of (partially hidden) game mechanics. Knowing the fire chances doesn't help them to win an engagement but they can make a better judgement whether it is worth engaging in such a fight in the first place.

[geschlittert]

7 hours ago, SmokinSerj said:

Oooo K ... so my calculation was way too simple :)))

btw, use fire prevention skill on all battleships, it's really strong because of the single center fire instead of two (and -10% fire chance)

[SmokinSerj]

13 hours ago, geschlittert said:

btw, use fire prevention skill on all battleships, it's really strong because of the single center fire instead of two (and -10% fire chance)

Thank you, good advice, I'll keep it in mind for the moment, because I'm quite new in game (Only play since April) and my best commanders only have 13 pts so far. 

But one of them yes, he already has Fire Prevention, the others have Concealment.

[maybe__baby]

unfortunately, the figures for the chances of fire in the port have few real indicators in battle. everything here is built on incomprehensible and illogical scripts. so that "Lyoha" does not die yet. you can be set on fire by a destroyer with a 5% chance of each bullet, and the next battle you can play on a heavy Briton and not set a battleship on fire for 5 minutes, with a player of 40%. that's why they say igrulya-scriptulya.  

[geschlittert]

3 hours ago, SmokinSerj said:

Thank you, good advice, I'll keep it in mind for the moment, because I'm quite new in game (Only play since April) and my best commanders only have 13 pts so far. 

But one of them yes, he already has Fire Prevention, the others have Concealment.

In general i can advice to use this document if you dont know which skills fit for a commander, it is made by some of the best players and constantly updated

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XfsIIbyORQAxgOE-ao_nVSP8_fpa1igg0t48pXZFIu0/edit

For more individual help, ask questions here on the forum or search for the help me wows discord :)