Pacific Event Analysis.

[Sunleader]

So.

 

Free Stuff from the Event and a Missed Opportunity.

 

We get 1750 Tokens from the Pacifik Missions.

So we get the 1000 Token Container for Free. Which is a Free T2-4 Premium Ship. Not exactly a Relevant Price. But its a Nice Gift nonetheless.

 

After that you got 750 Tokens Left.

Which is a bit of a Waste of an Opportunity in my Eyes.

If WG had given us 2500 Tokens total. (Thus us having 1500 Tokens left) It would have meant that you can Buy a T5 Premiumship for 1500 Doubloons As any of the Packages gives 500 Tokens and Costs 1500 Doubloons. This is Roughly a 50% Discount for a T5 Ship which otherwise doesnt Sell well anyways.

So would have been a Good Chance for WG to Offer a Good Deal with Little to Complain about.

 

With only 1750 Tokens. (Thus having 750 Tokens left) You unfortunately need to Buy 3 Packages. Which of course is a Complete Scam for a T5 Premium Ship. Because T5 Premiums usually Cost about 3000-3500 Doubloons. And 3 Packages would mean you need to Spend 4500 Doubloons.

So just Buying a T5 Premium Ship Directly is actually more useful.

 

 

Calculations for the Packages and Prize Value vs Cost

 

Now then for the Packages itself.

 

There is 41 Packages.

1 is Missouri which is worth 19400 Doubloons I think. (Feel Free to Correct me here. I am not sure about the odd Hundred Doubloons here. Only Remember it was 19k something.)

So this one is outside the Box as even if it Costs 1500 Doubloons it Equals a much bigger Value.

Which however is meaningless unless you got it as First Package. As otherwise its only Possible to Gamble for it and there no way to Guarantee any Benefit.

 

 

The other 40 are each Costing 1500 Doubloons and give you 500 Tokens each.

 

 

The Stages are

1000 (You get that for Free)

2000 (You need to get 1250 Tokens which is 3 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 4.500 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 3.000 Doubloons and Maximum 3.400 Doubloons.

2750 (You need to get 4000 Tokens which is 8 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 12.000 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 7.850 Doubloons and Maximum 10.700 Doubloons.

4250 (You need to get 8250 Tokens which is 17 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 25.500 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 13.150 Doubloons and Maximum 20.800 Doubloons.

5000 (You need to get 13250 Tokens which is 27 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 40.500 Doubloons. You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 21.450 Doubloons and Maximum 34.800 Doubloons.

 

 

That means if you got Missouri within the 27 other Packages.

You would get a Total Value of Premiumships of between 40850 Doubloons and 54.200 Doubloons. For that you would have Paid the Price of 42.000 Doubloons.

For each Package you of Course Pay 1500 Doubloons more.

In Worst Case of Missouri being in Package 41. You would have instead Paid 61,500 Doubloons.

 

Again pls dont Roast me for the Few Odd Hundred in between.

This is just a Quick Analysis. And if you get 54.200 or 54.500 really isnt relevant for this.

Thats also why I Ignore the 2-4 Container for this. Because it Adds between 500 and 2.000 Doubloons on the sides which doesnt change the overarching meaning and thus has no real benefit either ways.

In Fact it would even Devalue it. Because it would then go from being a Gift which is Nice. Towards being Part of a Deal which is almost Guaranteed to not be Worth the Doubloons you Spend. Thus effectively becoming part of the Bet rather than parrt of the Prize.

 

 

As you can See. This is (who had guessed it) a Gamble.

WarGambling after all has Earned that Name through Diligence and Hard Work for the last Years. And is obviously not Ready to let go of it.

 

Your Gambling Ranges are.

Your Bet Value is between 42.000 and 61.500 Doubloons.

Your Prize Value is between 40.850 and 54.200 Doubloons.

 

This is on the Better End of Gambling Chances in Casinos. So At least you are on a Card Table not on a Slot Machine....

Of course however. It is still a Casino Level of Chances heavily Favoring the Bank. As the Average Pleb will Pay about 50k Doubloons and get 47k of Value out of it. Whith a few People of course hitting Jackpot and getting Missouri Early. While others will be more Unlucky and not just get a few thousand Doubloons Difference but will really hit into the Latrine and Pay 10k Doubloons Extra.

 

 

Chances

 

According to Wargaming your Chance to get the Missouri Package is Equal for all Packages.

They have not Said wether Missouri has the Same Weighting as each of the 40 other Packages or the same Weighting as each of the other 5 Package Types.

Which makes a Tremendous Difference. Because if its the First. Then the Chance for the Missouri Package is very low and thus you are actually not likely to get it within the 27 Packages. Because your Chance to get it is 1 out of 41 on First Try. And gets better with each Try till at 27 Packages its effectively 1 out of 14

If it has the same Chance as the other Types of Packages however. You would Start at 1 out of 6 and it would Stay out of 6 for most of the Time. Maybe towards the 27th Package actually being Reduced to 1 out of 5.

But for that you would need to be pretty Unlucky already.

 

So Yeah. Lets be Real here.

WG Gave it the 1 out of 41 chance. There is no way they gave the 1 out of 6 Chance that would make it Equally likely to Appear as the other Packages.

 

Which means your Chances are that Missouri will Appear somewhere around 30 Packages. Guaranteeing that WG will in Average make More Money out of this than you would Pay if you Bought each Item Directly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why is Wargaming doing this.

 

Now for those who want a little extra Fun.

There is a Reason to this Madness.

 

This Reason is that Wargaming wants your Money. (Yeah I know. Shocker...)

But no not that.

I mean they really want as much Money from you as Possible (Yes Yes I know.....)

Bah this is hard to Formulate well.....

They want you to give them MORE Money than you would normally do. (Ok I give up. I.ll just get to the Point...)

 

 

Basicly the Trick is. That these Containers in themselves are not actually a Price.

You cannot possibly get more Value out of the Containers than you Spend. Even if you Rolled the Highest Ship on each Container. You would still always Run at a Loss.

 

The only Prize in this Lottery is Missouri. Because only getting Missouri out of that 1 to 41 Chance will Allow you to get a Positive Value.

 

 

The Containers. Are a Consolation Prize. Their Purpose is to Provide you a Fallback.

Like most Repeating Lotteries. For you to not Realize just how Bad you are Losing Money. Most Casinos will give you Fallback Prizes. Free Drinks, Vouchers for Spending the Night and maybe a Bunny Girl Escorting Serving you that Drink. (And even some R18 stuff in some less reputable Casinos)

After all. They dont want you to Realize that you Already lost. They want you to keep Gambling.

 

So they give you back part of what you lost. So you can say to yourself. (Oh but I had already lost more before. I guess I can at least Gamble further to the Same loss again)

Of course thats not really True. Because the Casino only Sold you something which they give that Value you Paid some. And you didnt get a Cent of your Actual Money back.

But its a Psychological Trick that actually works very well for Casinos.

 

So as you can See from my List Above. When you Spend about 25k Doubloons. You will get between 13k and 20k of these Doubloons back as Premiumships.

So you can Think in your little Gambling Habit Learned Head. That hey. Actually you only lost 5-12k Doubloons. So come on. You can just as well at least try another 5-8 Packages till your back at 25k Doubloons Loss.

Of course thats a Trick. Because in Reality you will then have Spend 35k Doubloons already. But hey there is another Consolation there. Might just as well at least get that one right. So 2 more Packages it is and you are at the 27 Package line.

40k Doubloons Spend and Value of 22.-35k Doubloons received back. Awww come on. Lets just Buy the remaining 14 Packages as well. Then at least you are Guaranteed Missouri. And lets be Honest. At this Point getting these Packages basicly is just Buying Missouri Directly.

 

Of course all of that is just Cheating yourself in your Head like a True Gambling Addict. Because you didnt actually get the Value Back. You just ended up Paying Wargaming 50k Doubloons for stuff that you could have Bought for 45k Doubloons.

All to get something Worth 20k Doubloons.

Meaning that you Spend 30k Doubloons you would not have Spend otherwise at all.

 

And for Wargaming its a Great Deal.

Because in a few cases. They even if you got a good Value out of it. Will have basicly Sold you 2-3 times what you would have normally bought at a small Discount.

While in Average of course they Sold you 2-3 times what you would have normally bought at a higher Price lol.

 

 

 

 

 

Greetz Sun.

 

Ps. Yes you likely already noticed. But this is also why the passed on the Opportunity I mentioned Earlier. After all. If you got the Consolation Prizes too early. You would go out with a Positive Value. Which is a Natural Exit Point.

A Point at which its Natural for your Brain to think "Oh I got a Good Deal. I should stop Gambling and take my Win"

Which they of course Dont want you to have. Because then you would stop Gambling.

 

Ps2. My Regards to the Monetization Team. Top Notch Work on this Event on such a Short Notice. You guys got Casino Tactics and Calculations Down Pat. If you ever need a Job after WG goes the way of Blizzard. I am sure you.ll find a Job at your Local Casinos to put together good Gambling Events for them.

[Sunleader]

Reserved for Comments and Potential Corrections.

 

Because Yes. I didnt find any Holes in my Hands last time I checked. So its likely that I am not Jesus and thus not Unfaillable.

I also dont have a Company of 500 People that could Check over my Calculations or Writing to make sure I didnt miss anything *gg*

[MementoMori_6030]

Vor 14 Minuten, Sunleader sagte:

So.

 

Free Stuff from the Event and a Missed Opportunity.

 

We get 1750 Tokens from the Pacifik Missions.

So we get the 1000 Token Container for Free. Which is a Free T2-4 Premium Ship. Not exactly a Relevant Price. But its a Nice Gift nonetheless.

Did not read further, because that's where I concluded my campaigns. Grinding 3 further missions for nothing relevant? Nope. You can read the campaign stuff regardless of doing the remaining missions, so that's fine.

[Sunleader]

3 minutes ago, MementoMori_6030 said:

Did not read further, because that's where I concluded my campaigns. Grinding 3 further missions for nothing relevant? Nope. You can read the campaign stuff regardless of doing the remaining missions, so that's fine.

 

Thats Perfectly fine.

Albeit you may at least want to Read the Last Part about Why WG is doing this to give yourself a Laugh :P

[MementoMori_6030]

Vor 2 Minuten, Sunleader sagte:

Albeit you may at least want to Read the Last Part about Why WG is doing this to give yourself a Laugh :P

I can say with confidence that WG's motives are beyond my care. I just suppose it's because of money/player numbers, and that appears to be true in most cases. 

 

Well, now back to shooting down 140 planes with Kuma...

[gabberworld]

as i gamble and get Missouri kind off early spend less than tier 9 ship cost . i to get some doubloons back because off that mission if i spend extra 3000 doubloons for buy the 1000 tokens and then buy the tier 6 box

 

500 tokens is 1500 doubloons so yeah for wg its kind off big number   thats the reason also why you not get more tokens with mission

[Camperdown]

I will get a 12 pt captain for my Vampire II for 1750 pts. Done!

[gabberworld]

by the way im blind or there is something not right with today s mission, why its typed only 125 when every mission should be 250 tokens

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

Good analysis @Sunleader !

 

But there are also other possibilities / options...

 

For example I now have all the ships that are available through "Premium Tier V Container" and that is direct cashback of 4.000 Doubloons!

 

Therefore I got those 3 containers for 1.500 Doubloons = 4.500 Doubloons (I got extra Doubloons by playing the "Silver Ranked League" anyway) and practically didn't loose anything.

 

Sadly there was no "Missouri" for me in those first 5 "Random Bundles"... I was hoping for 19.2000 Doubloon cashback...

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[___V_E_N_O_M___]

2 hours ago, Sunleader said:

So.

 

Free Stuff from the Event and a Missed Opportunity.

 

We get 1750 Tokens from the Pacifik Missions.

So we get the 1000 Token Container for Free. Which is a Free T2-4 Premium Ship. Not exactly a Relevant Price. But its a Nice Gift nonetheless.

 

After that you got 750 Tokens Left.

Which is a bit of a Waste of an Opportunity in my Eyes.

If WG had given us 2500 Tokens total. (Thus us having 1500 Tokens left) It would have meant that you can Buy a T5 Premiumship for 1500 Doubloons As any of the Packages gives 500 Tokens and Costs 1500 Doubloons. This is Roughly a 50% Discount for a T5 Ship which otherwise doesnt Sell well anyways.

So would have been a Good Chance for WG to Offer a Good Deal with Little to Complain about.

 

With only 1750 Tokens. (Thus having 750 Tokens left) You unfortunately need to Buy 3 Packages. Which of course is a Complete Scam for a T5 Premium Ship. Because T5 Premiums usually Cost about 3000-3500 Doubloons. And 3 Packages would mean you need to Spend 4500 Doubloons.

So just Buying a T5 Premium Ship Directly is actually more useful.

 

 

Calculations for the Packages and Prize Value vs Cost

 

Now then for the Packages itself.

 

There is 41 Packages.

1 is Missouri which is worth 19400 Doubloons I think. (Feel Free to Correct me here. I am not sure about the odd Hundred Doubloons here. Only Remember it was 19k something.)

So this one is outside the Box as even if it Costs 1500 Doubloons it Equals a much bigger Value.

Which however is meaningless unless you got it as First Package. As otherwise its only Possible to Gamble for it and there no way to Guarantee any Benefit.

 

 

The other 40 are each Costing 1500 Doubloons and give you 500 Tokens each.

 

 

The Stages are

1000 (You get that for Free)

2000 (You need to get 1250 Tokens which is 3 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 4.500 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 3.000 Doubloons and Maximum 3.400 Doubloons.

2750 (You need to get 4000 Tokens which is 8 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 12.000 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 7.850 Doubloons and Maximum 10.700 Doubloons.

4250 (You need to get 8250 Tokens which is 17 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 25.500 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 13.150 Doubloons and Maximum 20.800 Doubloons.

5000 (You need to get 13250 Tokens which is 27 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 40.500 Doubloons. You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 21.450 Doubloons and Maximum 34.800 Doubloons.

 

 

That means if you got Missouri within the 27 other Packages.

You would get a Total Value of Premiumships of between 40850 Doubloons and 54.200 Doubloons. For that you would have Paid the Price of 42.000 Doubloons.

For each Package you of Course Pay 1500 Doubloons more.

In Worst Case of Missouri being in Package 41. You would have instead Paid 61,500 Doubloons.

 

Again pls dont Roast me for the Few Odd Hundred in between.

This is just a Quick Analysis. And if you get 54.200 or 54.500 really isnt relevant for this.

Thats also why I Ignore the 2-4 Container for this. Because it Adds between 500 and 2.000 Doubloons on the sides which doesnt change the overarching meaning and thus has no real benefit either ways.

In Fact it would even Devalue it. Because it would then go from being a Gift which is Nice. Towards being Part of a Deal which is almost Guaranteed to not be Worth the Doubloons you Spend. Thus effectively becoming part of the Bet rather than parrt of the Prize.

 

 

As you can See. This is (who had guessed it) a Gamble.

WarGambling after all has Earned that Name through Diligence and Hard Work for the last Years. And is obviously not Ready to let go of it.

 

Your Gambling Ranges are.

Your Bet Value is between 42.000 and 61.500 Doubloons.

Your Prize Value is between 40.850 and 54.200 Doubloons.

 

This is on the Better End of Gambling Chances in Casinos. So At least you are on a Card Table not on a Slot Machine....

Of course however. It is still a Casino Level of Chances heavily Favoring the Bank. As the Average Pleb will Pay about 50k Doubloons and get 47k of Value out of it. Whith a few People of course hitting Jackpot and getting Missouri Early. While others will be more Unlucky and not just get a few thousand Doubloons Difference but will really hit into the Latrine and Pay 10k Doubloons Extra.

 

 

Chances

 

According to Wargaming your Chance to get the Missouri Package is Equal for all Packages.

They have not Said wether Missouri has the Same Weighting as each of the 40 other Packages or the same Weighting as each of the other 5 Package Types.

Which makes a Tremendous Difference. Because if its the First. Then the Chance for the Missouri Package is very low and thus you are actually not likely to get it within the 27 Packages. Because your Chance to get it is 1 out of 41 on First Try. And gets better with each Try till at 27 Packages its effectively 1 out of 14

If it has the same Chance as the other Types of Packages however. You would Start at 1 out of 6 and it would Stay out of 6 for most of the Time. Maybe towards the 27th Package actually being Reduced to 1 out of 5.

But for that you would need to be pretty Unlucky already.

 

So Yeah. Lets be Real here.

WG Gave it the 1 out of 41 chance. There is no way they gave the 1 out of 6 Chance that would make it Equally likely to Appear as the other Packages.

 

Which means your Chances are that Missouri will Appear somewhere around 30 Packages. Guaranteeing that WG will in Average make More Money out of this than you would Pay if you Bought each Item Directly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why is Wargaming doing this.

 

Now for those who want a little extra Fun.

There is a Reason to this Madness.

 

This Reason is that Wargaming wants your Money. (Yeah I know. Shocker...)

But no not that.

I mean they really want as much Money from you as Possible (Yes Yes I know.....)

Bah this is hard to Formulate well.....

They want you to give them MORE Money than you would normally do. (Ok I give up. I.ll just get to the Point...)

 

 

Basicly the Trick is. That these Containers in themselves are not actually a Price.

You cannot possibly get more Value out of the Containers than you Spend. Even if you Rolled the Highest Ship on each Container. You would still always Run at a Loss.

 

The only Prize in this Lottery is Missouri. Because only getting Missouri out of that 1 to 41 Chance will Allow you to get a Positive Value.

 

 

The Containers. Are a Consolation Prize. Their Purpose is to Provide you a Fallback.

Like most Repeating Lotteries. For you to not Realize just how Bad you are Losing Money. Most Casinos will give you Fallback Prizes. Free Drinks, Vouchers for Spending the Night and maybe a Bunny Girl Escorting Serving you that Drink. (And even some R18 stuff in some less reputable Casinos)

After all. They dont want you to Realize that you Already lost. They want you to keep Gambling.

 

So they give you back part of what you lost. So you can say to yourself. (Oh but I had already lost more before. I guess I can at least Gamble further to the Same loss again)

Of course thats not really True. Because the Casino only Sold you something which they give that Value you Paid some. And you didnt get a Cent of your Actual Money back.

But its a Psychological Trick that actually works very well for Casinos.

 

So as you can See from my List Above. When you Spend about 25k Doubloons. You will get between 13k and 20k of these Doubloons back as Premiumships.

So you can Think in your little Gambling Habit Learned Head. That hey. Actually you only lost 5-12k Doubloons. So come on. You can just as well at least try another 5-8 Packages till your back at 25k Doubloons Loss.

Of course thats a Trick. Because in Reality you will then have Spend 35k Doubloons already. But hey there is another Consolation there. Might just as well at least get that one right. So 2 more Packages it is and you are at the 27 Package line.

40k Doubloons Spend and Value of 22.-35k Doubloons received back. Awww come on. Lets just Buy the remaining 14 Packages as well. Then at least you are Guaranteed Missouri. And lets be Honest. At this Point getting these Packages basicly is just Buying Missouri Directly.

 

Of course all of that is just Cheating yourself in your Head like a True Gambling Addict. Because you didnt actually get the Value Back. You just ended up Paying Wargaming 50k Doubloons for stuff that you could have Bought for 45k Doubloons.

All to get something Worth 20k Doubloons.

Meaning that you Spend 30k Doubloons you would not have Spend otherwise at all.

 

And for Wargaming its a Great Deal.

Because in a few cases. They even if you got a good Value out of it. Will have basicly Sold you 2-3 times what you would have normally bought at a small Discount.

While in Average of course they Sold you 2-3 times what you would have normally bought at a higher Price lol.

 

 

 

 

 

Greetz Sun.

 

Ps. Yes you likely already noticed. But this is also why the passed on the Opportunity I mentioned Earlier. After all. If you got the Consolation Prizes too early. You would go out with a Positive Value. Which is a Natural Exit Point.

A Point at which its Natural for your Brain to think "Oh I got a Good Deal. I should stop Gambling and take my Win"

Which they of course Dont want you to have. Because then you would stop Gambling.

 

Ps2. My Regards to the Monetization Team. Top Notch Work on this Event on such a Short Notice. You guys got Casino Tactics and Calculations Down Pat. If you ever need a Job after WG goes the way of Blizzard. I am sure you.ll find a Job at your Local Casinos to put together good Gambling Events for them.

Some people have too much time on their hands to write so much drivel. Maybe you need another hobby like gardening or composting!?!?!??!?

[gabberworld]

another Scam right ?

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

5 minutes ago, gabberworld said:

another Scam right ?

 

All is OK... two stages... the 2nd one is "Tokyo Express"...

 

Quote

Battle of the Eastern Solomons

You are the Commander of an American warship.

 

August 1942.

“The war took a completely different turn and the enemy feels it too. We act more confidently and their attacks have become... Fiercer? I think it's because they're desperate. Instead of retreating and regrouping they fight until the end. We don't know what this endless campaign will bring, but at least we have hope now.

 

“Endless months of war. Lifeless islands. Forests, mountains, and beaches have become a frontline desert. We fight against Isoroku Yamamoto himself here, and something tells me that it won't be an easy battle for our squadron."

 

Mission received!

 

You are already participating in this offer.

 

To complete this combat mission chain, you'll need to deal damage, set on fire, and destroy enemy ships playing U.S. Tier IV–X ships. As a reward, you'll earn 125 Pacific Tokens, 2x Stars 'n' Stripes camouflages, and 1x Ocean Soul camouflage.

Tokyo Express

This mission will unlock automatically in the game client once you complete the combat mission chain from the Battle of the Eastern Solomons stage.

 

You are the Commander of a Japanese destroyer.

 

May, 1943.

“We'll start moving our troops aboard fast destroyers under the cover of darkness. Yes, the Allies have air superiority. We'll solve this little problem. Their aircraft can't threaten us in darkness, and at dawn's first light, our soldiers will join their comrades on the other side of the strait.”

 

To complete this combat mission chain, you'll need to spot enemies, capture Key Areas, and assist in their capture playing Japanese Tier IV–X ships. As a reward, you'll earn 125 Pacific Tokens, 2x Ocean Soul camouflages, and 1x Type 59 camouflage.

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[gabberworld]

27 minutes ago, Leo_Apollo11 said:

Hi all,

 

 

All is OK... two stages... the 2nd one is "Tokyo Express"...

 

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

i see, thanks

[bobtherterrible]

Hello 

as a F2P, this event is kinda nice

There's some free stuff, not outrageously great free stuff but nice all teh same, and the missions are not really all that grindy.

 

More please!

[Karasu_Browarszky]

7 hours ago, Sunleader said:

So.

 

Free Stuff from the Event and a Missed Opportunity.

 

We get 1750 Tokens from the Pacifik Missions.

So we get the 1000 Token Container for Free. Which is a Free T2-4 Premium Ship. Not exactly a Relevant Price. But its a Nice Gift nonetheless.

 

After that you got 750 Tokens Left.

Which is a bit of a Waste of an Opportunity in my Eyes.

If WG had given us 2500 Tokens total. (Thus us having 1500 Tokens left) It would have meant that you can Buy a T5 Premiumship for 1500 Doubloons As any of the Packages gives 500 Tokens and Costs 1500 Doubloons. This is Roughly a 50% Discount for a T5 Ship which otherwise doesnt Sell well anyways.

So would have been a Good Chance for WG to Offer a Good Deal with Little to Complain about.

 

With only 1750 Tokens. (Thus having 750 Tokens left) You unfortunately need to Buy 3 Packages. Which of course is a Complete Scam for a T5 Premium Ship. Because T5 Premiums usually Cost about 3000-3500 Doubloons. And 3 Packages would mean you need to Spend 4500 Doubloons.

So just Buying a T5 Premium Ship Directly is actually more useful.

 

 

Calculations for the Packages and Prize Value vs Cost

 

Now then for the Packages itself.

 

There is 41 Packages.

1 is Missouri which is worth 19400 Doubloons I think. (Feel Free to Correct me here. I am not sure about the odd Hundred Doubloons here. Only Remember it was 19k something.)

So this one is outside the Box as even if it Costs 1500 Doubloons it Equals a much bigger Value.

Which however is meaningless unless you got it as First Package. As otherwise its only Possible to Gamble for it and there no way to Guarantee any Benefit.

 

 

The other 40 are each Costing 1500 Doubloons and give you 500 Tokens each.

 

 

The Stages are

1000 (You get that for Free)

2000 (You need to get 1250 Tokens which is 3 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 4.500 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 3.000 Doubloons and Maximum 3.400 Doubloons.

2750 (You need to get 4000 Tokens which is 8 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 12.000 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 7.850 Doubloons and Maximum 10.700 Doubloons.

4250 (You need to get 8250 Tokens which is 17 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 25.500 Doubloons.  You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 13.150 Doubloons and Maximum 20.800 Doubloons.

5000 (You need to get 13250 Tokens which is 27 Packages to get this) The Cost is therefore 40.500 Doubloons. You get Premiumships Worth Minimum 21.450 Doubloons and Maximum 34.800 Doubloons.

 

 

That means if you got Missouri within the 27 other Packages.

You would get a Total Value of Premiumships of between 40850 Doubloons and 54.200 Doubloons. For that you would have Paid the Price of 42.000 Doubloons.

For each Package you of Course Pay 1500 Doubloons more.

In Worst Case of Missouri being in Package 41. You would have instead Paid 61,500 Doubloons.

 

Again pls dont Roast me for the Few Odd Hundred in between.

This is just a Quick Analysis. And if you get 54.200 or 54.500 really isnt relevant for this.

Thats also why I Ignore the 2-4 Container for this. Because it Adds between 500 and 2.000 Doubloons on the sides which doesnt change the overarching meaning and thus has no real benefit either ways.

In Fact it would even Devalue it. Because it would then go from being a Gift which is Nice. Towards being Part of a Deal which is almost Guaranteed to not be Worth the Doubloons you Spend. Thus effectively becoming part of the Bet rather than parrt of the Prize.

 

 

As you can See. This is (who had guessed it) a Gamble.

WarGambling after all has Earned that Name through Diligence and Hard Work for the last Years. And is obviously not Ready to let go of it.

 

Your Gambling Ranges are.

Your Bet Value is between 42.000 and 61.500 Doubloons.

Your Prize Value is between 40.850 and 54.200 Doubloons.

 

This is on the Better End of Gambling Chances in Casinos. So At least you are on a Card Table not on a Slot Machine....

Of course however. It is still a Casino Level of Chances heavily Favoring the Bank. As the Average Pleb will Pay about 50k Doubloons and get 47k of Value out of it. Whith a few People of course hitting Jackpot and getting Missouri Early. While others will be more Unlucky and not just get a few thousand Doubloons Difference but will really hit into the Latrine and Pay 10k Doubloons Extra.

 

 

Chances

 

According to Wargaming your Chance to get the Missouri Package is Equal for all Packages.

They have not Said wether Missouri has the Same Weighting as each of the 40 other Packages or the same Weighting as each of the other 5 Package Types.

Which makes a Tremendous Difference. Because if its the First. Then the Chance for the Missouri Package is very low and thus you are actually not likely to get it within the 27 Packages. Because your Chance to get it is 1 out of 41 on First Try. And gets better with each Try till at 27 Packages its effectively 1 out of 14

If it has the same Chance as the other Types of Packages however. You would Start at 1 out of 6 and it would Stay out of 6 for most of the Time. Maybe towards the 27th Package actually being Reduced to 1 out of 5.

But for that you would need to be pretty Unlucky already.

 

So Yeah. Lets be Real here.

WG Gave it the 1 out of 41 chance. There is no way they gave the 1 out of 6 Chance that would make it Equally likely to Appear as the other Packages.

 

Which means your Chances are that Missouri will Appear somewhere around 30 Packages. Guaranteeing that WG will in Average make More Money out of this than you would Pay if you Bought each Item Directly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why is Wargaming doing this.

 

Now for those who want a little extra Fun.

There is a Reason to this Madness.

 

This Reason is that Wargaming wants your Money. (Yeah I know. Shocker...)

But no not that.

I mean they really want as much Money from you as Possible (Yes Yes I know.....)

Bah this is hard to Formulate well.....

They want you to give them MORE Money than you would normally do. (Ok I give up. I.ll just get to the Point...)

 

 

Basicly the Trick is. That these Containers in themselves are not actually a Price.

You cannot possibly get more Value out of the Containers than you Spend. Even if you Rolled the Highest Ship on each Container. You would still always Run at a Loss.

 

The only Prize in this Lottery is Missouri. Because only getting Missouri out of that 1 to 41 Chance will Allow you to get a Positive Value.

 

 

The Containers. Are a Consolation Prize. Their Purpose is to Provide you a Fallback.

Like most Repeating Lotteries. For you to not Realize just how Bad you are Losing Money. Most Casinos will give you Fallback Prizes. Free Drinks, Vouchers for Spending the Night and maybe a Bunny Girl Escorting Serving you that Drink. (And even some R18 stuff in some less reputable Casinos)

After all. They dont want you to Realize that you Already lost. They want you to keep Gambling.

 

So they give you back part of what you lost. So you can say to yourself. (Oh but I had already lost more before. I guess I can at least Gamble further to the Same loss again)

Of course thats not really True. Because the Casino only Sold you something which they give that Value you Paid some. And you didnt get a Cent of your Actual Money back.

But its a Psychological Trick that actually works very well for Casinos.

 

So as you can See from my List Above. When you Spend about 25k Doubloons. You will get between 13k and 20k of these Doubloons back as Premiumships.

So you can Think in your little Gambling Habit Learned Head. That hey. Actually you only lost 5-12k Doubloons. So come on. You can just as well at least try another 5-8 Packages till your back at 25k Doubloons Loss.

Of course thats a Trick. Because in Reality you will then have Spend 35k Doubloons already. But hey there is another Consolation there. Might just as well at least get that one right. So 2 more Packages it is and you are at the 27 Package line.

40k Doubloons Spend and Value of 22.-35k Doubloons received back. Awww come on. Lets just Buy the remaining 14 Packages as well. Then at least you are Guaranteed Missouri. And lets be Honest. At this Point getting these Packages basicly is just Buying Missouri Directly.

 

Of course all of that is just Cheating yourself in your Head like a True Gambling Addict. Because you didnt actually get the Value Back. You just ended up Paying Wargaming 50k Doubloons for stuff that you could have Bought for 45k Doubloons.

All to get something Worth 20k Doubloons.

Meaning that you Spend 30k Doubloons you would not have Spend otherwise at all.

 

And for Wargaming its a Great Deal.

Because in a few cases. They even if you got a good Value out of it. Will have basicly Sold you 2-3 times what you would have normally bought at a small Discount.

While in Average of course they Sold you 2-3 times what you would have normally bought at a higher Price lol.

 

 

 

 

 

Greetz Sun.

 

Ps. Yes you likely already noticed. But this is also why the passed on the Opportunity I mentioned Earlier. After all. If you got the Consolation Prizes too early. You would go out with a Positive Value. Which is a Natural Exit Point.

A Point at which its Natural for your Brain to think "Oh I got a Good Deal. I should stop Gambling and take my Win"

Which they of course Dont want you to have. Because then you would stop Gambling.

 

Ps2. My Regards to the Monetization Team. Top Notch Work on this Event on such a Short Notice. You guys got Casino Tactics and Calculations Down Pat. If you ever need a Job after WG goes the way of Blizzard. I am sure you.ll find a Job at your Local Casinos to put together good Gambling Events for them.

 

Shorter version for the time challenged:

 

Crap.

[MementoMori_6030]

Vor 25 Minuten, Karasu_Hidesuke sagte:

 

Shorter version for the time challenged:

 

Crap.

Well, ironically I received a bunch of ships of the navy which got completely thrashed by the actual losers of (this) Pacific War... 

[S_h_i_v_a]

Just one captain more.

[Karasu_Browarszky]

6 minutes ago, S_h_i_v_a said:

Just one captain more.

 

There's always room for one more.

[MementoMori_6030]

I have recycled all of them immediately. 

[GulvkluderGuld]

How do you get free tokens?

 

went to Google, looked up the event.

Oh.

There is a campaign? 

 

Didn't realize.

Just looked in armory and saw no way to obtain tokens without spending gold.

 

Contrary to the armory, there were no notifications about a new campaign.

 

Really sums up both the scummyness of WG and how little I pay attention to their events by now. And I used to grind for every event just a year or two ago.

 

 

[MementoMori_6030]

Vor 14 Minuten, GulvkluderGuld sagte:

Contrary to the armory, there were no notifications about a new campaign.

 

Game Center & Website

[gabberworld]

19 minutes ago, GulvkluderGuld said:

Contrary to the armory, there were no notifications about a new campaign.

 

Really sums up both the scummyness of WG and how little I pay attention to their events by now. And I used to grind for every event just a year or two ago.

 

 

 

it been at News section inside game all the time. every day when new campaign started they posted message at there

 

there IS button called GO TO CAMPAIGN

 

or just look at here https://worldofwarships.eu/en/content/campaign-map/

[Karasu_Browarszky]

1 minute ago, gabberworld said:

 

it been at News section inside game all the time. every day when new campaign started they posted message at there

 

Easy to miss if you assume everything they put up there is a ploy to get you and your money depart ways.

[Jvd2000]

The event is not that bad.

 

If you don’t like gambling: take the free T2/T4 crate plus the extra other goodies you get along. But it’s just a shitty low tier premium…yes but I expect WG giving out more of these crates. And since you can clear a lot of these drops through coal or past events in the end you will collect them all.Earning 2k doubloons each time. Only the unexpected adding of the Abreu ( never released earlier in EU) prevented the whales to collect 2k.  I even decided to buy the only other remaining ship ( Diana Lima) because a: I wanted to have the rare Abreu And B: the cost of Diana is lower then the future 2k value rebate and I don’t need a 10 pnt cap.

 

Go low risk gambling. Buy the first 3 bundles in the hope of getting that Missouri. You can then also peak at bundle no 4. So about 10% to get your Mo. But still most likely you wasted your 4500D. But atleast you get your T5 back. And the value ranges from a low 3k ( the sov T5 dd) up to 5k for the BB’s. If you have all you get 4K from the crate. A reasonable gamble IF you have the doubloons laying around. And you can improve the droprate from that T5 by eliminating some ships by coal and earlier events. And even if T5 premiums are meh closing the possible drops will get you into T5 container farm through CT’s or events ( like the 14 phase of the current DY event). Farming these T5 crates makes FTP possible with you still being able to join events and rewards normally behind a paywall.

 

High risk gambling if you are in a position to do so. That means gambling for Mo by going full whale. You still need Mo to drop in the early twenties. But with a filled doubloon warchest ( so no need to buy the doubloons) and all of the crates drop pool already in your harbor ( or only the high value ones left) you can limit you initial losses by refunding your doubloons partially. If Mo drops arround 22/24 you come out better doubloon wise ( if you had Mo already) plus the extra flags and camo’s picked up as a bonus.

 

High risk gambling when not being in a position to do so. Aka not filtred out the drops from the premium containers, need to buy doubloons etc..If Mo does not drop for you early means accepting the loss of doubloons without Mo or spending more then you initially bargained for. Just don’t.

[Ocsimano18]

8 hours ago, ___V_E_N_O_M___ said:

Some people have too much time on their hands to write so much drivel. Maybe you need another hobby like gardening or composting!?!?!??!?

I got to the same conclusion as the OP, within 15 sec.