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Glig69

Can WG please comment on CV MM?

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Having watched this clip, I feel that WG need to make a frank and honest comment on how they manage the MM for carriers ... and explain why the below happened.

 

I am aware that the sample size is not statistically significant, but the chances of what happened to Flambass being "pure RNG" are extremely low (10 games or so, all called correctly, i.e. probability of 1/(2^10) i.e. 1 in 1000).  It would be interesting if someone with a Kidd and LOTS of patience could run further tests to firm up the numbers.

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[TORAZ]
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Have you ever considered that CVs are just simply rare because practically nobody plays CVs?

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WG: "ah so you want CVs to be more popular so you always face them with your AA builds, got-ya." :cap_like:

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Fairly sure the MM likes to have a carrier in each game. Last night I was constantly sitting in the queue with approx 100 battleships, 20 cruisers and 20 destroyers the battle wouldnt start until a couple of carriers joined the queue.

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26 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:

What do you want to know?

The video shows Flambass playing ships with mediocre or bad AA, he gets a CV game every time.
Inbetween he plays kidd, hoping to kill planes with it, every time he plays kidd, there is no CV.

The implication here seems to be a conspiracy to make sure carriers are only ever matched against ships with bad AA.
I guess he's asking "Does wargaming match carriers only with surface ships who have bad AA"
The sample pool to prove this theory seems to be 6 flambass games

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[THESO]
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I'd say it's just confirmation bias.

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Lets say the theory is correct (it's not) and ships with "good AA" are not placed in CV games, why would this even piss you off? I would pay $1.000 for kidd and play it every day if it didn't face carriers :fish_cute_2: Never facing a CV sounds like the ultimate anti-air to me

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[THESO]
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I hardly ever play CVs anymore, but when dusting off snowflakes during christmas I met a Kidd in one of my few CV games.
Flambass is just extrapolating here without any proper evidence to back it up.
(And no, 10 games is not solid evidence)

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They need to comment on it, because...

 

Flambass takes a smalls series of games and calls the MM rigged because if it? But if Flambass says it has to be a thing, right?

He does Videos like this with a headline like this to polarize, and it worked in your case. In reality, he has no point in that Video. Nothing from special interest happened, but he still males a big thing out of it. 

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I too constantly meet "AA ships" when playing CVs.

Not that their AA matters ofc.

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3 minutes ago, Hirohito said:

I hardly ever play CVs anymore, but when dusting off snowflakes during christmas I met a Kidd in one of my few CV games.
Flambass is just extrapolating here without any proper evidence to back it up.
(And no, 10 games is not solid evidence)

i have noticed much less CVs in games, to the point seeing T10 CVs is super rare (i had CV game 2 times during whole last ranked sprint)

T8 are more common, but seems like 10-20% tops still (hard to say as i played some CVs myself).

 

i haven't watched the video, but i remember during actual stream he had CV games in his Kidd ( i recon one vs Midway). Maybe they just cut that out for more drama ;)

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Vor 1 Stunde, Glig69 sagte:

It would be interesting if someone with a Kidd and LOTS of patience could run further tests to firm up the numbers.

I have been keeping carrier stats for neigh on a year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11G0IGENL2SOSoJx8yP6Sz_RhVIk0hovHasSaWKiw1KM/edit#gid=1420727126

 

My Kidd got 61.1% carrier battles which is 7.3% less than my Tier VIII average, but I have very few games in her, so it is statistically not really relevant. Also 122 games are Asashio, which has no AA to speak of, and that ship only got 59.1%, even fewer than the Kidd. And plus I have only 364 total Tier VIII battles in that statistic, which does not help things either because it is also too little.

This is because although there is not much statistical confidence in these numbers, the trend was evident so I stopped playing much Tier VIII and went to Tier IX instead where the chances of getting a carrier are much lower, as well as Tier X Halland/Smaland for a while until WG turned their AA into a complete joke as well.

I did notice that my European DDs, especially Friesland, got somewhat fewer CV battles, especially on the NA server which has a lot more CVs. The latest hypothesis for which is it could probably be explained by the soft nationality mirroring: DDs of nations that also have carriers can conceivably be roped in to make up the numbers, but those from nations with no CVs cannot, so they are bound to miss out on a few carrier battles.

But on the EU server, my Benham (again, no AA to speak of) gets only 0.2% more carrier battles than Friesland and some 3% less than the tier average, and that is my most played ship in that statistic at 457 battles.

 

One of the biggest abnormalities in my numbers, percentage-wise, is between Lyon and KGV on the NA server, where the French BB gets almost 18% more carrier battles, in direct contradiction of the nationality hypothesis. But only 67 and 51 games total, respectively, on these ships. Then again, the Harekaze vs Asashio comparison on that server is 58.5% vs 64.6% and both have over 200 battles. But all in all, my numbers don't seem to bear out any rigging, it's mostly  just trends, some of which actually point in the opposite direction. And in terms of actual statistics, you would need at least several hundred battles per ship to gain meaningful levels of confidence, wouldn't you, @black_falcon120.

 

So Flambass' video, as much as I like the lad, is just anecdotal click bait, I'm sorry to say.

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I understand its close to "Tinfoil hat" territory and I get that Flambass video isnt proof of anything but being a DD main I must say I have somewhat of the same experience as Flambass does.

 

I LOVE IJN torp DDs like Shima, Yugumo and Asashio, but almost every game I play in them there is a T 10 CV. So lately ive switched more and more to play my Halland instead and suddenly there is no CV in my games ever, even tho you had quite many in the que?!

 

So in my experience playing:

IJN torp DDs = about 80 % CV games

Halland = about 20 % CV games Max.

 

I would love to know if any other DD mains (foremost) has the same experience with "random MM" in these 2 types of DDs?

 

Considering how WG caters to CV masterrace at every turn I wouldnt be shocked to hear CVs also enjoys some protected "random" MM as well.

 

 

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I recall a few threads being started with people having this theory, and I sympathize that they must find it frustrating. However short of a large group of people getting together and keeping a log of what ships they played and was there a CV in the match we really don't have sufficient data to say this is anything more than confirmation bias. 

 

Its like the old saying "there is never a police officer around when you need one". 

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TBH my theory is that cvs are so annoing and game braking fun killing class, that if you have 10 games, and 3 of them are with CV you rember "in all games i have to fight this stupid broken class" . So i dont think cvs got better mm just they if you have a cv in game your game is bad and you rember all this annoing matches more than normal ones. 

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13 minutes ago, FixCVs_Nautical_Metaphor said:

I have been keeping carrier stats for neigh on a year.

Wow, uhhh, you OK there buddy? I mean it's super useful in this topic now obviously but still, you OK there buddy? =D

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1 hour ago, El2aZeR said:

Have you ever considered that CVs are just simply rare because practically nobody plays CVs?

That sounds like "buff CV to inflate player numbers-time" to me. :Smile_trollface:

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1 minute ago, NikolayKuznetsov said:

Wow, uhhh, you OK there buddy? I mean it's super useful in this topic now obviously but still, you OK there buddy? =D

 

Bearing in mind certain individuals on the forum who insist on others providing stats to back up claims especially in relation to match making it does make sense. 

 

Thankfully I'm just way to lazy to do that myself.

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its wierd every game i take a t8 cv out theres always 2-3 hallands out there 

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19 minutes ago, GarrusBrutus said:

That sounds like "buff CV to inflate player numbers-time" to me. :Smile_trollface:

 

So if we all play CVs, WG will nerf them? :cap_yes:

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3 minutes ago, DFens_666 said:

 

So if we all play CVs, WG will nerf them? :cap_yes:

 

Funny enough that is very likely...

 

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1 hour ago, Hirohito said:

And no, 10 games is not solid evidence

 

To be fair, I did take the pains to point out that I realise that a sample size of 10 is not statistically significant, but a chance of 1:1000 when there are plenty of carriers in the queue is rather unlikely ... what is more likely is that there is something in the MM algorithm that determines whether there is a CV in the game.

 

1 hour ago, ColonelPete said:

What do you want to know?

I'd like WG to explain clearly what the basis for their MM is, and to state whether the above is just a wild coincidence (they do happen after all), or an intended feature of the system.

 

I am also aware that anything related to CVs seems to be like adding petrol to a fire for the anti-/pro- CV commenters, but could we have an adult discussion here?

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Kidd AA is not even strong and you meet quite a lot of Hallands when you play CV, so I don't buy it.

 

Why doesn't Flambass just play CV and looks what he is up against instead ?!

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4 minutes ago, Glig69 said:

To be fair, I did take the pains to point out that I realise that a sample size of 10 is not statistically significant, but a chance of 1:1000 when there are plenty of carriers in the queue is rather unlikely ... what is more likely is that there is something in the MM algorithm that determines whether there is a CV in the game. 

 

The problem is, we dont really now what tier those ships are which the queue is showing us. F.e. if he is playing T8 ships, he can get T6, T8 or TX CVs. And if there are 5 CVs, 2 can be T6, 1 T8 and 2 TX, and he gets T7-9 MM then he cant get a CV, because there was only 1 in the queue.

 

Also ive seen plenty of Hallands in CV games, ive rarely played CV myself, but ive seen a Kidd in the enemy team more than once.

It does look weird, but i doubt thats an actual thing, because you see "AA"-ships in CV games all the time. Once had a Smaland/Halland div on the enemy team with T8 CVs... our CV was not happy :cap_popcorn:

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