Question on statistics & winrate

[Flosedus]

Just watched a stream and there were two players in the allied team with less than 40% winrate overall. I think one had even 35% or so. With 16k games played.

 

I was just wondering how this is possible statistically. Would that even be possible when being AFK in all of those game from the start? Somehow I cant believe so. 

And when you play a little bit, just randomly driving around, you still spot stuff and do occasionally damage. I mean, after 16k games you should know at least a little bit of the game even when you are literally mentally or otherwise disabled (which is okay, some people just are, this is not meant to be an insult). Plus, there are many players playing pretty bad, so to some extend this should average out over so many games (= potatoes should be in the opposite team as well...)

So how is such a winrate possible? I cant believe it actually.

 

Does anybody have a plot showing the distribution of winrates over all players? I am curious how skewed it is.

[SV_Kompresor]

After that many battles it is most likely a mental or physical disability yes. With less battles it's more likely that the age of the player that's the cause.

 

http://maplesyrup.sweet.coocan.jp/wows/ranking/tableofaccounts.html

[ColonelPete]

You must differentiate between account and ship winrates.

Account winrates of 35% or lower are very unusual.

https://wows-numbers.com/ranking/?order=win_rate__desc&p=1735

 

That is basicly playing against your team.

[Bear__Necessities]

9 minutes ago, SV_Kompresor said:

After that many battles it is most likely a mental or physical disability yes. With less battles it's more likely that the age of the player that's the cause.

 

http://maplesyrup.sweet.coocan.jp/wows/ranking/tableofaccounts.html

That table never cease to depress and amaze me at the same time. To see that I, an average person in life am able to comfortablly sit in the top 1.2% on EU and and top 0.07% on NA because the majority can't get above 48%..... it's just... wow. 

[Flosedus]

Looked up a few guys on the leaderboard. I think the answer is: playing in bad divisions all the time. They have enough impact to [edited]the games up ;)

[tocqueville8]

1 minute ago, Flosedus said:

I was just wondering how this is possible statistically. Would that even be possible when being AFK in all of those game from the start?

Sort of, though it depends on the tiers.

 

At mid tiers, if you have a great game, you can do several times as much (as measured by xp) as a bad player on your team. BBs at least can tank some damage, but cruisers and DDs that sail mindlessly into a cap will get obliterated in seconds without anything to show for it.

Essentially, it becomes an 12v11 game.

 

Things snowball from there: a 1 ship advantage on a flank, especially if it's a DD, often means losing that flank, and losing a flank often means losing the game.

 

It wouldn't be so bad if it was 12 battleships vs 12 battleships, but because teams rely on a combination of ship types, they're more susceptible to potatoes in the least aboundant types (CVs and DDs).

 

At high tiers it's probably even worse, as the average player is better at exploiting weaknesses in the enemy formation, so I imagine things will snowball more quickly.

 

Then again, I'm just speculating: you'd need a data miner to get a better picture.

[asalonen]

1 hour ago, Flosedus said:

Looked up a few guys on the leaderboard. I think the answer is: playing in bad divisions all the time.

That's one reason. It's not very uncommon to play so poorly that you only win 40 % of the games solo. In a division of two other such players you likely win even less. 

 

Another reason is sticking to tier 10 when you maybe shouldn't. In tier 10 you're always top-tier, and when you're top-tier your influence in the battle is greater. Play very poorly and... you get the picture. The enemy has an average top-tier player in your place, who -- on average -- will carry at least somewhat.

 

Then there is the factor is that destroyers and in particular aircraft carriers have higher influence than other ship classes. If you're terribly bad in them it's a greater loss for your team. There is a player on the EU server who did a thousand randoms in the pre-rework Hakuryu with a solo win rate of 19.9 %. I'm certain that this is the lowest anyone has managed, and this isn't possible anymore: In the post-rework Hakuryu he's managed almost 30 % win rate, over a similar (very high) number of battles.

[El2aZeR]

3 hours ago, Flosedus said:

So how is such a winrate possible?

 

You will only find sadness and insanity in pursuit of this question.

[kfa]

As said before, most likely disabled person playing in 3-men disabled divisions, perhaps syncdropping from big disabled clans... Otherwise 35% winrate is quite hard to achive. Those players are rare. 

 

They are called reverse superunicums. 

[RenamedUser_92906789]

You try playing wows without a mouse on a spectrum keyboard  ..... with your eyes closed ... listening to max volume opera on headphones!

 

 

 

 

[Camperdown]

Would over 10K games and under 40%WR not also contain a significant number of accounts that use bots? E.g. they have used bots for a significant % of their games in order to grind and play some real games with the loot.

I always have the suspicion that low WR/high volume accounts employ bots.

[Camperdown]

There is also 1 account with 5K games and 80% WR 

[hypsar]

3 hours ago, nambr9 said:

You try playing wows without a mouse on a spectrum keyboard  ..... with your eyes closed ... listening to max volume opera on headphones!

 

 

 

 

What's wrong with opera? Would country or 70's disco at max volume give a better result?

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

10 hours ago, Flosedus said:

Just watched a stream and there were two players in the allied team with less than 40% winrate overall. I think one had even 35% or so. With 16k games played.

 

I was just wondering how this is possible statistically. Would that even be possible when being AFK in all of those game from the start? Somehow I cant believe so. 

And when you play a little bit, just randomly driving around, you still spot stuff and do occasionally damage. I mean, after 16k games you should know at least a little bit of the game even when you are literally mentally or otherwise disabled (which is okay, some people just are, this is not meant to be an insult). Plus, there are many players playing pretty bad, so to some extend this should average out over so many games (= potatoes should be in the opposite team as well...)

So how is such a winrate possible? I cant believe it actually.

 

Does anybody have a plot showing the distribution of winrates over all players? I am curious how skewed it is.

 

Unfortunately that is the truth... if you played the latest TEST Ranked you could see that in 7 vs. 7 you end up many times with teams that have just 1 or 2 players with overall WinRate above 50%... the rest are 40% players who simply have no clue...

 

For example - from my Ranked games:

 

#1

I had a "pleasure" of encountering this... this "specimen" in Ranked... he was in DD following me in my BB whole time... doing absolutely nothing... he was just like a puppy behind my ship... just following... 

 

 

#2

I also had a "pleasure" of having this fine "specimen" in my Ranked team... he "tried" to play CV in ranked...

 

 

7 hours ago, El2aZeR said:

 

You will only find sadness and insanity in pursuit of this question.

 

How very true...

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[RenamedUser_92906789]

20 minutes ago, hypsar said:

What's wrong with opera? Would country or 70's disco at max volume give a better result?

 

Its a combination of all above.

[gabberworld]

is little bit mystic how  to get that low winrate in random battles, i know that in beginning it might be little hard because they may easily meet unicorn players and self still learning. but play 30k battles and still at there then that is weird.

 

it can be that someone curse those players with voodoo doll

 

[Matty814]

So is 48% WR the average on all 4 servers?

 

[DFens_666]

11 hours ago, Flosedus said:

I was just wondering how this is possible statistically. Would that even be possible when being AFK in all of those game from the start? Somehow I cant believe so.  

 

Some people are worse than AFK ships even.

For DDs, there are many ways how to screw your team, just do any of these:

- Yolo ahead, when spotted or - better yet - when radared, IMMEDIATELY pop smoke while not slowing down to lay a big fat smokescreen for the enemy team. Best done with US DDs, as their smoke lasts really long. Just make sure that you die in the process. What happens next is, that your entire team is blind. And when the enemy DD rushes through the smokescreen to spot your teammates, they will get farmed without seeing any enemy ship

- Sail behind your teammates and keep throwing torps in their path. Hopefully you can make them dodge and then they will eat citadels because you made them show broadside to the enemy BB. (You can do the same with Cruisers that have torps ofc).

 

See? Isnt that hard is it? And i can ensure you, doing stuff like that is worse than being AFK. Because an AFK ship cant screw over your teammates. They can adapt to 1 guy not playing the game.

 

Ofc there is stuff that works for BBs aswell:

- See a friendly Cruiser sitting in smoke. Ofc this smoke is meant for you, AND ONLY FOR YOU. Or if there are no ships spotted, make sure to demand that the Cruiser spots for you. So what you wanna do is, impale that Cruiser and push him out of his smoke, while frantically honking your horn. And make sure to yell at that pleb for sitting in smoke too.

- BBs are strongest together (Apes together strong?), be sure to always sit together with other BBs in the same spot. You dont want to be the BB being alone, that means, everyone will focus you. At best look at a cozy island in spawn where you and your buddies can sit behind. Also keep pinging your BB mates so that they follow you! Others might not know this awesome tactic of bunching up, because more big'uns on one spot means MORE BIGGER BOOM!

 

As a Cruiser, you can also just rush ahead, then turn broadside when spotted. Thats a good way to give points to the enemies. Points they wouldnt get if you were AFK.

 

CVs are very easy to screw your team over. Make sure to not hunt and spot DDs! They are so annyoing, very small air detection, very hard to find. And what should such a small loliboat do anyway? Focus on the big guys. preferably the enemy CV! Afterall he is also driving that same awesome boat as you are, so that means he is awesome. You wanna get rid of him first, so your team doesnt have to worry about him anymore, just make sure to fly around at the mapborder so that noone sees your planes coming - they wont understand what hit them . Ignore all pleads from your teammates to spot or kill the enemy DD, they just dont understand your awesome winning tactic. If they manage to lose in 8 minutes while you have done 10k to the enemy CV, make sure to tell them they are noobs and they suck because they all died so fast. You want to revers to the mapborder aswell, because thats the safest place afterall.

 

Or if have specced your CV for secondaries (you know, since WG gave you those skills to buff secondaries), you ofc want to use them. And dont be afraid to do it! So just hit W at start and let your secondaries do the work. If the enemies kill you, make sure to yell at your BBs for not tanking

 

Spoiler

Just a disclaimer that please dont take me seriously

 

So yep, there are many ways to hurt your team more than an AFK ship. An AFK ship does nothing. But a dead ship always gives the enemies points. And worst case scenario, you can screw your team big time. But DDs and CVs are definetely the 2 classes with more impact, so if someone plays either of those very badly, he can probably get like 30% WR.

[hypsar]

1 hour ago, nambr9 said:

 

Its a combination of all above.

you obviously dont know opera ...

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

34 minutes ago, DFens_666 said:

 

An AFK ship does nothing.

 

I think I have won 2-3 battles in my history with WoWs when AFK ship in our team won the game unspotted... he was last one alive as well...

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[Data_Unavailable]

4 minutes ago, Leo_Apollo11 said:

I think I have won 2-3 battles in my history with WoWs when AFK ship in our team won the game unspotted... he was last one alive as well...

The fabled AFK Solo Warrior

[_Lupastro_]

I have a better question...

Yesterday I played a game where the whole team had an average account win rate of 38%!!

38%!!! 

Against an over 50%... So funny...

It's impossible that a team of humans have only 38% average WR... Probably some bots...

 

 

[El2aZeR]

4 minutes ago, _Lupastro_ said:

It's impossible that a team of humans have only 38% average WR... Probably some bots...

 

The sad truth is bots play better than that.

[VC381]

There is also the pshychological effect. If a guy is playing, you expect them to play a certain way and also you position based on your expectations of them. If they then do something stupid to let you down, you are usually in a much worse situation than you would have been if you played knowing they were AFK. And you're tilting. So overall, their bad play made you more likely to mess up and lose as well.

[Lootboxer]

2 hours ago, Camperdown said:

Would over 10K games and under 40%WR not also contain a significant number of accounts that use bots?

Bots aren't that bad.