Testing the Shortlist theory.

[SoothingWhaleSong]

(This is a clone of a topic and poll I made on the NA forums with my tiny NA account)

 

So this theory posted on this reddit thread has rapidly gained a lot of interest and lots of confirmation from many accounts the forums, reddit and tests by streamers like Flamu. 

So. SCIENCE!

Before opening any Santa's Mega Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships: Duca d'Aosta, Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov?

Likewise before opening any Santa's Big Gifts: Did you already own *ANY* of these ships Admiral Makarov, California or Orkan

The theory is if you get a ship then it will choose one of these 3 or 4 ships (depending on the gift).  I *believe* this ship should appear from that gift container. *Note below.

BUT if you already have it then you will instead get a super container (with I believe the super container animation)** with a ship you don't already have from the far longer 107 ship list.

So in my case I already have Duca d'Aosta (from a Santa Gift from last year... oddly enough...) so it's possible for me to get *any* ship from the full list if I buy a Mega Gift Container and get lucky. But I should be unsurprised if I end up with Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov (which I don't have)

However as I don't have Makarov, California or Orkan, then by the short list rule the first ship I get must be one of them if I open a Big gift and get a ship. After getting at least one I can again get any ship on the list.

This is obviously clearer if you open the containers one at a time but also full results are also interesting.

So if you've opened Mega or Big gifts this year and you got at least one ship:
Did it follow this rule? Please tell us.
Do we have anyone who doesn't have any ship from the relevant short list who gets another ship first? Please tell us what you got.

*Likewise short listed ships were specifically mentioned in previous years 2016 Christmas Box  2017 Christmas Box. But not from 2018 Loot Box.

**A note on the gift crate vs supercontainer animation. As any unowned shortlisted ship could *also* come out of a super container if they're a ship that the player doesn't own so I'm less sure how important the animation is. It's more I don't expect *any* other ship to come directly out of a gift container animation aside the 3 or 4 from the shortlist than never expecting any from the short list to come from the super container.

[K82J]

Got Makarov and Duca already. Ship from the short list i got, the California. Also got Viribus Unitis , that seems a common drop too.

[Dongi_2018]

out of 20 big crates, a100% match regarding the missing 3 automated drops.

 

[Bindolaf_Werebane]

So, WG crates are as random as WG's matchmaking.

 

My European thing to say, hmm "sacre Bleu! I am not surprised ".

[Verblonde]

I ticked 'yes', but it would be more accurate to say 'maybe':

• I bought three batches of 20 crates; the first 40 were the medium ones, and the last 20 were the largest ones.
• I opened them individually in sequence (mainly so I could record the data for the survey elsewhere on the forum).
• The ships from the medium crates went in the order: Cali, Champers, Cheshire, Poltava, and Indomitable (so, Cali first, and I had all the other 'short list' ships already).
• From the large crates: Neustrashimy, Ochakov, and Agir (so, Ochakov not first, and I had all the other 'short list' ships already).
• These new ships meant I actually had every ship on the complete list (yeah, I know, I know...), so the number of possibilities for me is limited - contrary to something I implied on another thread (I thought there were still a couple of T7-8ish ships I was missing, but they obviously didn't make the list).

So, whether I conform to the 'short list' theory depends on how containers are rolled when you buy multiples; the medium ones do conform (in as much as it's possible with limited possibilities); the large ones don't if the ships are rolled in sequence, but still might if they are all rolled in advance of opening the first one (when you buy multiples at once)...

 

I don't believe my data disproves the theory, but it doesn't unequivocally support it either.

[Deckeru_Maiku]

A totally european "I'm not dumb enough to pay any real money for the rng chance to get a russian papernapkin-blueprint-wet-dream...

[BrusilovX]

I had all the ships on the shortlist and bought 10 Mega crates.  Amongst them was a Neustrashimy.

 

[Fotynyakos]

 

I bought a twenty piece mega container package. Indeed, the above list has been confirmed (Vanguard Ochakov Duca d acosta) Dear WG then this is a coincidence isn't it? This is damn math .....

[Aigars]

Well since its late i got 20 Big crates the medium ones

ORKAN(in 3rd  large santa crate),  Makarov(in 8th large santa crate), YAHAGI (14th crate, switched to supercontainer).

Now off to bed i have screenshots of all 20 crates opening so can post more info after sleep.

Oh and i dont have ANY ships on shortlist before

[SoothingWhaleSong]

31 minutes ago, Verblonde said:

I ticked 'yes', but it would be more accurate to say 'maybe':

• I bought three batches of 20 crates; the first 40 were the medium ones, and the last 20 were the largest ones.
• I opened them individually in sequence (mainly so I could record the data for the survey elsewhere on the forum).
• The ships from the medium crates went in the order: Cali, Champers, Cheshire, Poltava, and Indomitable (so, Cali first, and I had all the other 'short list' ships already).
• From the large crates: Neustrashimy, Ochakov, and Agir (so, Ochakov not first, and I had all the other 'short list' ships already).
• These new ships meant I actually had every ship on the complete list (yeah, I know, I know...), so the number of possibilities for me is limited - contrary to something I implied on another thread (I thought there were still a couple of T7-8ish ships I was missing, but they obviously didn't make the list).

So, whether I conform to the 'short list' theory depends on how containers are rolled when you buy multiples; the medium ones do conform (in as much as it's possible with limited possibilities); the large ones don't if the ships are rolled in sequence, but still might if they are all rolled in advance of opening the first one (when you buy multiples at once)...

 

I don't believe my data disproves the theory, but it doesn't unequivocally support it either.

Yeah given you already had ships on both shortlists before you opened any gifts then the theory accepts you might get another ship first. I likewise think it's noticeable that you got both California and Ochakov early on in the rolls.

 

Despite replies to both polls with "no", I literally haven't seen *anyone* on EU/NA forums or Reddit who have owned none of the 3 or 4 ships in a short list and who got one of the other 100+ ships before they got at least one of Duca d 'Aosta, Yūdachi, Vanguard or Ochakov in a Mega gift or Makarov, California or Orkan in a big gift.

And a huge number of people getting at least one that they're missing.

 

 

Given the sheer amounts of players whose creates conform to the theory and the wording of the 2016 Christmas Box and 2017 Christmas Box I also feel there being a handful of cases of this occurring (perhaps a tiny percentage chance of just rolling a ship supercontainer) still wouldn't invalidate the fact that it seems if you do roll a ship then it's vastly more likely to be one of these 7 and this was not explained to players in the armoury/shop or news article.

[The_White_Whale]

Don't know who to feel sorrier for, someone who gets caught by the Makarov trap or someone who is unlucky enough to 'win' a Vanguard.

 

Either way not fun.

[rage1750]

Already own the following:

Duca d'Aosta, Yudachi, Vanguard, Admiral Makarov (EDIT IN BOLD: MAKAROV dropped from a SC during last WOWS anniversary).

 

Bought some big crates for science and used dubs dropped from the anniversary event (~7kdubs)....  [because I am dumb].

 

Recieved Orkan from a big santa crate.

Recieved (something), rerolled into a SuperContainer, dropped Flint.

Reasonable results but that Orkan........  She is on the list.

No premium time, a few dubs, coal flags and camos.

[Uglesett]

I don't have any of the ships from either short list. So I'm a perfect candidate for testing the hypothesis if anyone is dumbgenerous enough to gift me a statistically significant amount of containers 

[Padds01]

this is why china makes them list the % chances , unfortunately i doubt this illegal anywhere , they never claim the odds were even or fair just "may contain" the best two things anyone can do. 

 

1. do not engage in these mechanics , a thousand years ago when people were coming up with the idea of a free market economy , sellers offered a good or service at a clear price and the buyer decided if they wanted it. how far we have fallen.

 

2. contact your MP (gov rep) , newspapers , expose this behaviour

[DocStrangeFruit]

Yes got Duca Costa as 1st drop then next ship was an Arizona from a super container 

[Piratesque]

Bought 20 Santa Gift C., 20 Santa Big Gift C. and 8 Santa Mega C.. The only ship I got was the Viribus Unitis from the first 20 Santa Gift C.. Had Duca from before. 

[Dekkard1v]

i just leave this here

 

how scummy is that...

[doerhoff_damian]

what was the list of the last Year?

I got a Dunkerque out of a Big Santa Gift Container last Year, but I do not own most Ships of this List.

 

[bakmaita]

20 mid boxes, California here. Rest was flags/camos with doubloons once, so after first 4 times hearing ho-ho-ho thing giving me piece of nyerk rewards I was like nope, just open them all and finish this suffering🤭

 

My first and certainly last time if this is the idea of Christmas for WG..its horrible 🙂 Not sure what I was expecting given the appalling reputation of shameless horrific money milking vortex they are

 

I just *really* want to find other game to play at this point

[RenamedUser_92906789]

Maybe you guys were just notty this year and santa brought you a generic gift :D

[HARBINGER_OF_SKULLS]

Do they use these containers to "elect" presidents in Eastern Europe? With 1-person-shortlists?

[Yedwy]

[HARBINGER_OF_SKULLS]

All of a sudden, the text of "Last Christmas" totally makes sense.

[Butterdoll]

something European thingy, here

 

why gamble? why don't you just buy the ship that you want?

 

And if what you want is a ship that was recalled from the game...

 

Do you know if there is any in play at all in a container event?

 

Guess, now we know the real reason why they were removed from the game

[_HomTanks_]

7 hours ago, rage1750 said:

Already own the following:

Duca d'Aosta, Yudachi, Vanguard, Admiral Makarov (EDIT IN BOLD: MAKAROV dropped from a SC during last WOWS anniversary).

 

Bought some big crates for science and used dubs dropped from the anniversary event (~7kdubs)....  [because I am dumb].

 

Recieved Orkan from a big santa crate.

Recieved (something), rerolled into a SuperContainer, dropped Flint.

Reasonable results but that Orkan........  She is on the list.

No premium time, a few dubs, coal flags and camos.

Same here. I also owned Duca d'Aosta, Yudachi, Vanguard, Admiral Makarov from past years.

This year bought 20 big crates and Orkan dropped which is on the short list of big crates, rest were flags and camos. No other ship, no prem time, no coal, no steel, etc.