So upcoming ranked season

[Camperdown]

We have had a practice round of sprint in T8.

What you're going to play in the upcoming season?

I am quite happy in my Lightning. Will try to rank out for the first time, but will play max 100-150 games.

 

[loppantorkel]

This should be something to go by. On what to reasonably expect.

Spoiler

 

On 6/20/2020 at 10:19 AM, CapHastings said:

I did some statistical analysis on the 16 Saison ranked in order to evaluate the number of games needed on average to obtain rank 1. The results below shows that :

 

* In order to obtain rank 1, WR is crucial
* In all the cases you have to play a lot of games.

 

 

Assumptions :

* The analysis is based on evolutions between rank 12 (which is irrevocable) and rank 1. So you had to obtain rank 12 first, and this step is not included in the study.

* There are 43 stars to obtain in order to go from rank 12 to rank 1.

* The model is a Markov chain with transition probabilities :
    * p : probability to gain a star : this is the WR (the ranked one).
    * r : probability to stay in place , losing the game but being the best of his team.
    * q : probability to loose a star : this is 1-WR-r, loosing and not be the top-scorer of the team.
    

Results :

    
The analytical solution is the following :

 

 

with
T(a,b) the average numbers of games needed to go from a stars to b stars.

 

The following graph shows that with a WR = 50% and r=1/7 (we are the top score in our team one seventh of the games) , we need 518 games on average to obtain rank 1. In comparaison, an unicum player with WR=65% needs "only" 120 games. Btw an unicum player will probably be more often on the top on the scoresheet so he will grind even faster.

Fig 2

 

And if your WR is smaller than 50%, well, you can gain some ranks but it's not reasonable to aim rank 1 :

 

 

 

That's about the means. Hereafter are the plots of the distributions obtained with a Monte-Carlo simulation :

With WR=50% we need, on average 518 games to rank one but we see that it is very possible to have to play 1000 games in order to obtain that.

 

 

WR=55%

 

 

WR=60%

I join the Python code for those interested .

And sorry for the presentation : i'm not used to this text editor...

 

 

def Gamesneeded(a,b,p,q,r):
    q=(1-r)*q
    qp=q/p
    return (1/(p-q))*(b-a-qp**(a+1)*((1-qp**(b-a))/(1-qp)))

a=0
b=43
p=.50
q=1-p
r=1/7

ps = np.linspace(0.45,.50,200)

games=[]
for p in ps:
    games.append(Gamesneeded(a,b,p,1-p, r))
plt.figure(figsize=(13,8))
plt.xlabel('Winrate')
plt.ylabel('#games to Rank1 ')
plt.plot(ps,games)

from random import random
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
a=0
b=42
p=.60

def session_gagnante(a,b,p):
    niveau=a
    nb_parties=0
    p_first=1/7
    q=1-p-p_first
    while niveau < b and nb_parties<10000:
        if random()>p:
            if random()>p_first:
                niveau = niveau-1
        else:
            niveau = niveau +1       
        nb_parties=nb_parties+1
        if niveau < 0:
            niveau = 0
    return nb_parties
            
    
def MonteCarlo():
    results=[]
    for x in range(5000):
        results.append(session_gagnante(a,b,p))
    nb_parties = np.mean(results)
    print("parties",nb_parties ,"heures",nb_parties/3,"jours",nb_parties/20)
    plt.figure(figsize=(8,5))
    plt.xlabel('#games to Rank1 ' + " with WR =" + str(p))
    plt.hist(results, bins='auto')
    
   
    
MonteCarlo()    

 

 

 

 

 

 

And from an old post of mine because I think it's relevant:

Just as a tangent. I checked the 23 players who needed the most games to reach Rank 1 and compared it to their Solo WR at the same tier and they are at approximately at 2,7% points higher in Random games compared to this season's Ranked. If people want to predict how many games they need to rank out, they might need to take this into account and not except their WR in Random games to carry over directly. 

 

 

[gabberworld]

most likely i go with Cleveland or Baltimore

[Asakka]

Enterprise / Shokaku if the CVs are allowed 

[SeaWolf7]

Probably the old faithful Edinburgh....

But i have been doing a fair bit of DD play in Icarus so im tempted to the lightning but tbh it depends on the quantity of CV interaction and since radar is pretty heavy at 8 as well....hmmm not so sure on the DD choice.

[Kiagy]

Asashio or Bayard for me, 2 very good ships

[_HomTanks_]

15 minutes ago, Asakka said:

Enterprise / Shokaku if the CVs are allowed 

That’s griefing 

[Camperdown]

9 minutes ago, SeaWolf7 said:

Probably the old faithful Edinburgh....

But i have been doing a fair bit of DD play in Icarus so im tempted to the lightning but tbh it depends on the quantity of CV interaction and since radar is pretty heavy at 8 as well....hmmm not so sure on the DD choice.

I was a bit worried for DD but it was fine in the last sprint.

[Ocsimano18]

Flamu posted a new video:

 

He is quite informative, showing the good cop side today.

[Asakka]

33 minutes ago, Execute0rder66 said:

That’s griefing 

I dont care 

[loppantorkel]

17 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

Flamu posted a new video:

 

He is quite informative, showing the good cop side today.

I'm a bit surprised at the negativity toward Z-35. Is it really that bad?

[ollonborre]

I mean most ships work, as long as you can play them. Still in the higher ranks or if you want to progress quickly it often boils down to picking the ships that provide more utility or with bigger carry potential.

 

That is why tier 8 ranked often descends into BB-DD fights (and possibly a CV in the mix) because cruisers tend to have it rough in the whole staying alive department. 

 

But personally what I'm going to try in ranked:

 

CV- Shokaku, maybe Kaga.

BB- Amagi, Tirpitz, might rebuy North Carolina.

CA/CL- Cleveland, Chapayev

DD- Lo Yang, Cossack, Öland

[Yedwy]

Champaigne 

[Malim0o]

Champagne,Fantasque,Odin,Z35 and maybe Enterprise

[Fatal_Ramses]

CVs scaring everyone to BBs, I might go with my trusty Z-23 or Loyang.

I hope its not as bad as the sprint, but im not holding my breath.

[GulvkluderGuld]

Ranked out in Sprint with Harekaze without losing a single star. Will likely play that again.

Or Tallinn which I'm grinding atm.

 

Other candidattes are Akizuki, Lo Yang.

[Ocsimano18]

1 hour ago, loppantorkel said:

I'm a bit surprised at the negativity toward Z-35. Is it really that bad?

The general first impression seems to be that. Some people may figure out how to use it effectively later.

[SeaWolf7]

2 hours ago, Camperdown said:

I was a bit worried for DD but it was fine in the last sprint.

Yeah but now we have Tallin which (correct me if im wrong) wasn't around at time of sprint. And that thing has stealth radar and 12 guns to take out any DD with impunity (as well as everything else by the looks of its AP). I mean like there isn't enough things to deny dd concealment already at tier VIII and up they go and pop the Russian cherry on the proverbial cake, just in time for ranked at VIII.?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SeaWolf7]

1 hour ago, loppantorkel said:

I'm a bit surprised at the negativity toward Z-35. Is it really that bad?

 

25 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

The general first impression seems to be that. Some people may figure out how to use it effectively later.

6 klm torps at tiers VIII, IX, X?

 

Are you surprised.?

[HaachamaShipping]

4 minutes ago, SeaWolf7 said:

Yeah but now we have Tallin which (correct me if im wrong) wasn't around at time of sprint. And that thing has stealth radar and 12 guns to take out any DD with impunity (as well as everything else by the looks of its AP). I mean like there isn't enough things to deny dd concealment already at tier VIII and up they go and pop the Russian cherry on the proverbial cake, just in time for ranked at VIII.?

Not like we got a Russian T8 CL with longer lasting stealth radar and 12 railguns with better dpm and better accuracy for literal years now.

[gabberworld]

45 minutes ago, SeaWolf7 said:

Yeah but now we have Tallin which (correct me if im wrong) wasn't around at time of sprint. And that thing has stealth radar and 12 guns to take out any DD with impunity (as well as everything else by the looks of its AP). I mean like there isn't enough things to deny dd concealment already at tier VIII and up they go and pop the Russian cherry on the proverbial cake, just in time for ranked at VIII.?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tallinn have one issue tho so i think you not should take flamuu too serious, tallinn have slow reload time

[Camperdown]

51 minutes ago, SeaWolf7 said:

Yeah but now we have Tallin which (correct me if im wrong) wasn't around at time of sprint. And that thing has stealth radar and 12 guns to take out any DD with impunity (as well as everything else by the looks of its AP). I mean like there isn't enough things to deny dd concealment already at tier VIII and up they go and pop the Russian cherry on the proverbial cake, just in time for ranked at VIII.?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wasn't Tallin in pre-release?

 

[Yedwy]

Tallin IMHO is nothing special

[Gvozdika]

Cossack. Because I don't care if you get to that cap first - I'm in a Tribal Class Destroyer and I will take it from you. 

 

Torpedo-build Tirpitz for giggles. Because I can.

 

North Carolina if I'm looking to actually behave myself and be consistent. 

 

There weren't actually as many CVs in the sprint as I thought there would be - so if that is the case this time it gives you some additional options. 

[Bad_Mojo_incoming]

Massacre with my Massachusetts and Halsey.

Should I temporarily drop Manual 2ndaries for additional tankiness with Basics of Survivability and Preventive Maintenance??