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Ronchabale

Supercontainers chance in the 3 daily ?

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[RODS]
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What is the chance ?

Seems like 2-3/year for me on "normal" droprate

How much better if u go with the "dice" chance ?

Anyone know the exact numbers ?

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Players
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I think the normal drop rate is like 1% and it bumps up to 2% with the "lucky" chance.

As for me, I seem to get them like once a month. 

But it all depends on how many containers you get a day.

I try to get all 3, but if I'm busy then it's at least 2. 

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[ROUGH]
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The probabilities were not disclosed by WG but are generaly believed / observed to be around 1.5 % from non-Try-your-luck containers, which gives 3 % for the Try-your-luck containers, as WG only stated that the probability is exactly double.

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[MIAU]
[MIAU]
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So many false informations floating around.

 

We do not know the chances. We can guess, based on polls and threads asking other players to share their experience, but the only ones who really know the answer are sitting at Wargaming and they do not want to tell us. Any one of us is just guessing numbers.

 

The only thing we do know, is that Try Your Luck containers role twice for the chance to be a supercontainer.

 

I don't remember where that piece of info came from, so take it with a pinch of salt like all the others, but it is stuck to my head as the only official data on that topic we ever got from a developer or community manager.

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Beta Tester
339 posts
16,516 battles

My experience until 2020 was like 1% with non tyl containers. Since 2020 its way less than 1%. This is my personal experience, yeah maybe I'm just very unlucky or WG nerfed again.

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Players
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HAven't won sh*t since before xmas (coal), and before dat I had won a couple of boom flags twice for the year. I had about 10-12 the year before 2018? (mostly flags) no ship ever or premium time or dubloons or anything of note. I remember winning pretty consistently when I started playing. That is the first couple of months. Again no ships or whatever; But perhaps I'm wrong or caught rng bug.

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[H-O-E]
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I get almost one per month, by picking only resource containers,  close to 1% chance. i try get all 3 almost every day. 

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2 minutes ago, N00Boo7 said:

I get almost one per month, by picking only resource containers,  close to 1% chance. i try get all 3 almost every day. 

is resource a better option? or picking all three? I may grab one cred crate since I'm pretty poor, maybe dis is why I dont get any luck.

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[-RNR-]
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I think the Technical term is Snowball in Hells Chance, I just grab the coal, WG's RNG is how shall I put it very punishing in my case :Smile_facepalm:

PS I always go resource, not had one this year.

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[SCRUB]
Quality Poster
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Hi all,

 

50 minutes ago, Ronchabale said:

What is the chance ?

Seems like 2-3/year for me on "normal" droprate

How much better if u go with the "dice" chance ?

Anyone know the exact numbers ?

 

You can check the thread for player testimonies:

 

"Super Container Loot Thread [ topics merged ]"

 

 

 

BTW, last year I did the following statistics:

 

"Statistical analysis: Container gathering for 1 year by normal playing!"

 

 

On 3/24/2019 at 10:01 AM, Leo_Apollo11 said:

Statistical analysis: Container gathering for 1 year by normal playing!

 

 

For long long time I am using most excellent program "MxStat":

 

0ecd1d2da803a1cf0609741f532e5722.png

 

https://wows.mv-smirnov.org/en/mxstat/

 

that enables various interesting statistical analysis of you WoWs!

 

 

Analysis of 1 year Container gathering by normal playing:

 

Time frame: 2018/3/23 - 2019/3/23

Number of "Random battles" played: 2185 (= 5,99 per day)

Number of "Regular container" collected via normal gameplay: 574 (=1,57 per day)

Number of "Super container" collected via normal gameplay: 6 (1,04% per "Regular container") 

 

I was picking "More Signals and Camouflages" for first 244 "Regular containers" and when "More Resources" become available I exclusively used only them (333).

 

Please note that I broke my leg in the spring 2018 and was at home immobilized for almost 2 months - thus the higher than usual number of battles played! :Smile_hiding:

 

 

Dates of "Super containers":

 

2018/04/08
2018/04/21 (37 "Regular containers" since last "Super container")
2018/06/01 (90 "Regular containers" since last "Super container")
2018/09/27 (173 "Regular containers" since last "Super container")
2018/10/01 (8 "Regular containers" since last "Super container")
2019/01/16 (171 "Regular containers" since last "Super container")

 

I am currently 75 "Regular containers" since last "Super container" (i.e. since 2019/01/16)

 

 

Contents of "Super containers":

 

2018/04/08 = 7 Days "Premium Account"
2018/04/21 = 7 Days "Premium Account"
2018/06/01 = 25x Dragon Special Signal

2018/09/27 = 100x Victor Lima Signal

2018/10/01 = 100x India X-Ray Signal
2019/01/16 = 100x India X-Ray Signal

 

 

Conclusion:

 

  • The "Super Container" is very very rare
  • Content of the "Super Container" is (for most cases) 100% underwhelming... :Smile_sad:

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

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[THESO]
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I go with the principle that if someone creates uncertainty deliberately, he does so cause it's in his interest, not in mine.

If the probability of getting supercontainers was higher than we expect it to be, it would be in Wargaming's interest to let us know. After all, a higher probability of getting ingame items would be an incentive for us to want these containers. Consequently then we would play more and thus create more revenue. 

 

So that simple deduction of assuming that Wargaming is acting rationally when hiding these probabilities tells us that the probabilities must be lower than we expect them to be.

 

I think I remember Little White Mouse once stating the probability for a supercontainer was 1.5% in general and 3% for Try your Luck containers. Appearantly a WG employee shared that piece of classified information. But it is not confirmed. The odds could have been different back then. They could have been changed in the meantime - this info is 3 years old. And even the info of TyL-containers having double the chance of a SC is not confirmed and could be bad information.

 

Personally, I go with ressource containers all the time. I can get everything I need and at least I can decide, what I want and not take the odds.

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[MIAU]
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23 minutes ago, lossi_2018 said:

is resource a better option? or picking all three? I may grab one cred crate since I'm pretty poor, maybe dis is why I dont get any luck.

Container choice beyond TYL doesn't really seem to matter.

I chose ressources every time and didn't have a SC from September '19 till May '20. Despite getting at least two thirds of all potential containers. So I am the opposite of N00Boo7. It's just random chance.

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[CAIN]
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No idea about the chance, WG does not disclose that kind of thing.

 

I got several this year, although i don't really count them.

One recently on my alt-account (50 Irish special camos), one yesterday and one the day before yesterday (30days of prem time and 25 Leviathan signals).

The ones before were mostly useless signals and two 15k coal crates.

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[SM0KE]
Players
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I have a memory of one of the official WG folk (can't remember who though) saying that TYL containers give you two 'rolls' at a SC, rather than a simple doubling of the odds i.e. if, say, the chance of a SC is 1.5% then you have a 1.5% chance of getting a SC (well, duh!) for 'normal' containers, whereas the TYL give you that same 1.5% chance, followed by a second 1.5% chance if the first was negative. TYL doesn't give you a single 3% (if we're using 1.5% as the base chance) chance.

 

I always take Resources containers as they guarantee a known minimum useful reward (400 coal), plus they're normally more useful than SC contents (although I did get a coal SC last week) for me, as I already have all the premiums that - as far as I know - drop from SCs.

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[INTRO]
[INTRO]
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5 minutes ago, Verblonde said:

I always take Resources containers as they guarantee a known minimum useful reward (400 coal), plus they're normally more useful than SC contents (although I did get a coal SC last week) for me, as I already have all the premiums that - as far as I know - drop from SCs.

Same here. Coal and FXP is better IMHO than 100 flags that I allready have 1 500 of and never use.

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[BABBY]
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4 hours ago, lossi_2018 said:

is resource a better option? or picking all three? I may grab one cred crate since I'm pretty poor, maybe dis is why I dont get any luck.

I always pick resource because they give coal and fxp, SCs yield mostly trash anyway and I prefer the steady stream of resources that can be turned into guaranteed ships over time

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[CAIN]
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12 minutes ago, Leo_Apollo11 said:

Hi all,

 

 

Not entirely true... we have percentages for our sister-game...

 

https://wowslegends.com/containers

 

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

That's because the DEVS of console titles are required to make these kind of things public, not because WG wants to do it. :Smile_Default:

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[H_FAN]
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Well I did a ambitious work and noted all containers in the beginning in the first years of play, as below, when major changes in the drops /system occured I did new. While I stil note them in a notebock of antique model (ink and paper) as with all major progress, in excel I have not the time to do it I rather play, but I have no reason to feel that the chances have decreased. I would say that I have 96-98% % at least of the 3 per day/containers.

 

Results with stats:

20161020-20170208 (until 0.6.1) i principle all TYL 13/327 SC

20170209-20170719 (until 0.6.7) most TYL (448/462)  20/448 SC

I took TYL but when the resource containers arrived I went over to these. 

I have recieved 5 ships in supercontainers (these includes Supercontainers from events, but not any Santas).

In the beginning you had 250 flags as the flag haul and also credit containers 20 000 000 as the highest I think.

If I just watch briefly in my notebook I have drawn 20 since 20191026, all resource containers (or automated drop when I forgot to choose).

20191029 15000 Coal

20191126 100 Nov Echo Setteseven

20191229 50 revolutionary camo

20200107 25 Hydra

20200112 1000 Doubloons

20200122 100 ESCL

20200125 100 Zulu Hotel

20200126 15000 Coal

20200213 7 days Premium

20200219 15000 Coal

20200223 100 India Yankee

20200301 100 ouroborus

20200302 50 Leviathan

20200317 7 days premium

20200422 50000 freexp

20200515 15000 coal

20200526 50 restless fire

20200609 15000 coal

20200613 India xray

20200617 25 Ouroborus

If I count with 98% 3 containers a day it is 20/694=2,88%, so I believe I am on the lucky side of the draw here, no spectacular wins though. I have never got steel in a SC apart from the Jubilee containers.

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[JRM]
[JRM]
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21 hours ago, Ronchabale said:

What is the chance ?

Seems like 2-3/year for me on "normal" droprate

How much better if u go with the "dice" chance ?

Anyone know the exact numbers ?

Nobody but WG bit stats show about 1% chance for SC from normal rolls and IIRC twice that (or about 2% total) for TYL

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Players
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The chance is 60% for normal container and 120% for TYL container. If you get less SC than this it's very possible that a gipsy witch cursed you. Better go and buy a wig and instant ramen because i'm sure your hair and teeth will fall out soon too. :Smile_hiding:

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