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HassenderZerhacker

HE fire probability question

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yesterday I took my one and only tier 10 ship out, the Smolensk.

 

my cap has demolition expert, which allegedly adds 2% fire chance.

 

but looking at the battle results, the average number of fires I started per battle divided by the number of hits was somewhere around 2%, there even was a battle where I hit 448 times but started only 4 fires.

 

I guess I want to know if that is normal - it's a bit surprising the skill says +2% probability and then what I get is 2% average ?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, HassenderZerhacker said:

yesterday I took my one and only tier 10 ship out, the Smolensk.

 

my cap has demolition expert, which allegedly adds 2% fire chance.

 

but looking at the battle results, the average number of fires I started per battle divided by the number of hits was somewhere around 2%, there even was a battle where I hit 448 times but started only 4 fires.

 

I guess I want to know if that is normal - it's a bit surprising the skill says +2% probability and then what I get is 2% average ?

 

 

read this, it's way more complicated than you think...

https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire

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6 minutes ago, Salentine said:

read this, it's way more complicated than you think...

https://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire

well, no because I also applied the formula for HE damage in WoT before..

;-)

so, I just calculated using the formula: Fire Chance = FRC · ( 1 - DCM1 ) · ( 1 - FP ) · ( ( FCB · IFHE ) + DE + S )

 

conservatively: 0.5*0.95*.0.9*(0.08+0.02) = 4.275%

 

that should be the absolute minimum of fire I start in battles, yet, over 11 battles and about 3300 hits, the average was around 2%.

 

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Not if you hit a ship that is using dcp or already burning on the spot you hit.

 

Your average is correct, sadly the data sample is way too small.

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1 hour ago, HassenderZerhacker said:

well, no because I also applied the formula for HE damage in WoT before..

;-)

so, I just calculated using the formula: Fire Chance = FRC · ( 1 - DCM1 ) · ( 1 - FP ) · ( ( FCB · IFHE ) + DE + S )

 

conservatively: 0.5*0.95*.0.9*(0.08+0.02) = 4.275%

 

that should be the absolute minimum of fire I start in battles, yet, over 11 battles and about 3300 hits, the average was around 2%.

 

But that is only your chance of starting a fire no? It a general calculation only IMO. Unless you spend the whole battle shooting only at 1 ship, I don't think the formula will really apply 100% :Smile_teethhappy:

 

Whether you actually start a fire, there are also other factors to consider like (probably non-exhaustive):

a) The chance the ship you are shooting at will catch fire base on the modules and skills they use;

b) Whether or not they had just used their DCP. If they did and you were shooting them while the DCP was in effect, then you will not start any fire as they are "invulnerable"; and

c) Where your shots land. If your shots land on a portion of the ship that is already on fire, I don't think you will be able to start another one.

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47 minutes ago, LemonadeWarrior said:

Your average is correct, sadly the data sample is way too small.

And then there is RNG. I've lost count in how many battles I've got 300+ hits without fires in Smolensk or other "supposed firestarters"

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2 hours ago, HassenderZerhacker said:

yesterday I took my one and only tier 10 ship out, the Smolensk.

 

my cap has demolition expert, which allegedly adds 2% fire chance.

 

but looking at the battle results, the average number of fires I started per battle divided by the number of hits was somewhere around 2%, there even was a battle where I hit 448 times but started only 4 fires.

 

I guess I want to know if that is normal - it's a bit surprising the skill says +2% probability and then what I get is 2% average ?

 

 

 

The Calculation looks fine. Albeit I am no Expert on that.

But your Forgetting one Importand Part.

Fires are Local. And can only be Started on the Part of the Ship you hit.

The moment the Part of the Ship you hit. Is already on Fire either from you or from anybody else. The chance to Start a Fire with this Hit goes down to 0.

Also. Damage Con Removes Fire Chance while active. So any Hits during Damage Con Active also dont apply.

 

This effectively means this.

Lets say you Smoke up near a Suitable Target. You open Fire. On Hit 20 (Fire Chance of about 4.x%)  you get the First Fire on him. He uses DC right away. Now for the next 15 Seconds he is Immune to Fire Chance.

Thats effectively up to 50 Hits you have with 0 Fire Chance.

So 70 Hits and 1 Fire.

Now his DC runs out. You keep firing. 30 hits later so at 100 hits total. You get Fire number 2.

But now he has no DC. So for the next  40-55 Seconds (depending on Skills and Ship) he cant remove the Fire. But unless you hit a Different Part of the Ship you also cant set any new Fires.

Which means you can do another 100-150 Hits where your Fire Chance is 0.

So at 200-250 Hits you only got 2 Fires.

 

As you likely already Notice. Suddenly the 450 Hits with 4 Fires you got. Make quite a bit of sense dont they :)

 

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4 hours ago, HassenderZerhacker said:

my one and only tier 10 ship out, the Smolensk

Finally I understood the so many ROFLSTOMS nowadays...

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4 hours ago, HassenderZerhacker said:

yesterday I took my one and only tier 10 ship out, the Smolensk.

 

my cap has demolition expert, which allegedly adds 2% fire chance.

 

but looking at the battle results, the average number of fires I started per battle divided by the number of hits was somewhere around 2%, there even was a battle where I hit 448 times but started only 4 fires.

 

I guess I want to know if that is normal - it's a bit surprising the skill says +2% probability and then what I get is 2% average ?

Why do you not read the wiki or one of the other dozen topics about fire chance?

Hint: you cannot get fires in a burning section.

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It is called RNG-RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR. Now of course a ship that trows so many shells in the air like smolensk should start a lot of fires, but 4 fires for 400 shells seems a little....strange! Buy hey I played a tirpitz match about 2 weeks ago and I was fighting T10s, so HE was my primary ammo. Guess what there was a yamato I fired 4 salvos into him, where I got around 3-5 penetration and no fires, then I see a monarch much closer, I turn the guns to him,I fire and BAM 3 fires with 1 salvo!!! How is that possible? How it is possible to shoot salvo after salvo and not be able to set a single fire and then you switch targets and you set 3 fires with the first salvo? People who believe it is all about math clearly have not played this game enough or are just refusing to admit the amount of RNG that exists in this game!

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5 minutes ago, Animalul2012 said:

It is called RNG-RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR. Now of course a ship that trows so many shells in the air like smolensk should start a lot of fires, but 4 fires for 400 shells seems a little....strange! Buy hey I played a tirpitz match about 2 weeks ago and I was fighting T10s, so HE was my primary ammo. Guess what there was a yamato I fired 4 salvos into him, where I got around 3-5 penetration and no fires, then I see a monarch much closer, I turn the guns to him,I fire and BAM 3 fires with 1 salvo!!! How is that possible? How it is possible to shoot salvo after salvo and not be able to set a single fire and then you switch targets and you set 3 fires with the first salvo? People who believe it is all about math clearly have not played this game enough or are just refusing to admit the amount of RNG that exists in this game!

 

Yamato was a potato and the Monarch was not? :Smile_hiding:

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11 minutes ago, Animalul2012 said:

People who believe it is all about math clearly have not played this game enough or are just refusing to admit the amount of RNG that exists in this game!

You are aware that probability and statistics are perfectly workable to describe all that ?
The only factor here is that for the simple average fires/shell to be meaningful you need a large sample size and no fire-saturation.

I once set 4 fires with one KVG salvo on an NC that just DCPd cuz he was about to get into cover behind an island. Doesn't mean i destroyed basic logic with that action.

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1 hour ago, rnat said:

You are aware that probability and statistics are perfectly workable to describe all that ?
The only factor here is that for the simple average fires/shell to be meaningful you need a large sample size and no fire-saturation.

I once set 4 fires with one KVG salvo on an NC that just DCPd cuz he was about to get into cover behind an island. Doesn't mean i destroyed basic logic with that action.

Oh really? How come so you get 2 fires with 200 HE shells and next match you get 12 with the same amount? Why did this german BB salvo got such a good destroyer type dispersion and the next ones are ,, shotgun'' types? enemy ship shows broadside but hey 6 overpens, even trough the ship was a goliath and the one that shot was a stalingrad and even trough all the shells were aimed at the center bottom of the ship, right where the citadel is located but...they all went to high, wonder why? HOW IN THE WORLD does a midway get only 5 fires with that amount of bombs(70% fire chance!!!!) and rockets hit?(35% fire chance)? Wows can not be taken seriously as an competitive game, this aint Counter strike or the old cs games witch required even more skill and had way way less RNG!(source,1.6).

PS:midway proof!

 

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1 hour ago, Animalul2012 said:

Why did this german BB salvo got such a good destroyer type dispersion and the next ones are ,, shotgun'' types? enemy ship shows broadside but hey 6 overpens, even trough the ship was a goliath and the one that shot was a stalingrad and even trough all the shells were aimed at the center bottom of the ship, right where the citadel is located

 

 

dont tell me about it :cap_fainting:

 

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7 hours ago, Panocek said:

And then there is RNG. I've lost count in how many battles I've got 300+ hits without fires in Smolensk or other "supposed firestarters"

Can you explain to me what RNG is in the scenario you are describing? Afaik there isn't any RNG...

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1 hour ago, LemonadeWarrior said:

Can you explain to me what RNG is in the scenario you are describing? Afaik there isn't any RNG...

Fire CHANCE is, as name implies, governed by RNGesus himself...

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9 hours ago, LemonadeWarrior said:

Not if you hit a ship that is using dcp or already burning on the spot you hit.

 

Your average is correct, sadly the data sample is way too small.

huh? sample too small??? 3300 shells ?

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8 minutes ago, HassenderZerhacker said:

huh? sample too small??? 3300 shells ?

Actually it's not that the sample size is too small, it's that the number of shells you've given is way too high which makes the sample basically worthless for statistical analysis,

unless you want to go through your replay and for each shell record whether it hit an already burning section or impacted during a time you knew the target was using DCP.

 

5 hours ago, Animalul2012 said:

Oh really? How come so you get 2 fires with 200 HE shells and next match you get 12 with the same amount? Why did this german BB salvo got such a good destroyer type dispersion and the next ones are ,, shotgun'' types? enemy ship shows broadside but hey 6 overpens, even trough the ship was a goliath and the one that shot was a stalingrad and even trough all the shells were aimed at the center bottom of the ship, right where the citadel is located but...they all went to high, wonder why? HOW IN THE WORLD does a midway get only 5 fires with that amount of bombs(70% fire chance!!!!) and rockets hit?(35% fire chance)? Wows can not be taken seriously as an competitive game, this aint Counter strike or the old cs games witch required even more skill and had way way less RNG!

That's also at play during that midway match since many of the bombs/rockets tend to impact on the same section for any drop, so a fire from one of the early impacts makes all the following ones count as 0%.
Additionally in that replay I counted at least 2 drops when the target had DCP up, which removes those as well and lastly it's not 70% and 35%,

more along the lines of 31% and 15% given that he was only dropping T10s and most of them were BBs. The rest is plain "bad luck", RNG didn't roll in that players favor much in that match.

Regarding the Stalin -> Goliath, the desync issue is known and might have been responsible for that shot not landing where you thought it did,

otherwise you might have overshot because he was going more towards (or less away) from you than you accounted for or again RNGsus didn't smile upon you that time.

 

Also I think you're getting all hot and bothered about a point I never made. I said that statistics are perfectly fine to describe what that happens with fires and dispersion.
I did not claim in any way, shape or form that there isn't a big element of RNG involved in the game. It being in fact the main reason that statistics even applies here and not just plain algebra or something similar.

 

 

On a side note: People tend to underestimate how frequent "unlikely scenarios" randomly occur in a sufficiently large sample.

They also overestimate how often they occur to themselves since they tend to be much more "memorable" than average events.

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58 minutes ago, Panocek said:

Fire CHANCE is, as name implies, governed by RNGesus himself...

I misunderstood, because you said: "And there is RNG".

 

I see you mean with "RNG" = "Fire RNG" = FRC · ( 1 - DCM1 ) · ( 1 - FP ) · ( ( FCB · IFHE ) + DE + Σ S ) 
So "RNG" = "Fire RNG" = Fire chance...

Why dont you just call it the way it is...

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16 minutes ago, LemonadeWarrior said:

I misunderstood, because you said: "And there is RNG".

 

I see you mean with "RNG" = "Fire RNG" = FRC · ( 1 - DCM1 ) · ( 1 - FP ) · ( ( FCB · IFHE ) + DE + Σ S ) 
So "RNG" = "Fire RNG" = Fire chance...

Why dont you just call it the way it is...

Because russian grade RNG can be fickle. Like scoring 300ish hits on single BB with no fires in sight:cap_tea:

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