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black_falcon120

Christmas Crates Drop Rate Project

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Hi All, 

 

After my previous attempt at gathering drop rates from SCs from the anniversary event, I've decided to have a go at the Christmas crates HERE.

 

The aims of this project are to: 

 

  • Find out the raw drop rate of ships and other things to assess value. 
  • Detect any 'Crate lists' in use this year. 
  • Try and find 'tier bias' in the drops available 

 

Before the events starts, could other people have any other objectives pleases comment before the event goes live? 

 

In order to speed things up a bit, could everyone use the following templates?  

Santa's Gift

Spoiler

No. of Santa's gifts bought:

Server and IGN:

300 doubloons: 

2,500 Coal:

10,000 Free XP: 

30 days of Warships Premium Account:

4x camouflages:

50 signals 

No. of SCs obtained: 

None-SC ships that were dropped (with tier): 

 

Santa's Big Gift

Spoiler

No. of Big gifts Bought:

Server and IGN:

1,000 doubloons: 

7,500 Coal: 

90D Premium:

12x camouflages: 

15 Special Signals: 

No. of SCs obtained: 

None-SC premium ships that were dropped (with tier): 

Santa's Huge Gift 

Spoiler

No. of Huge Gift's bought:

Server and IGN:

2,000 doubloons:

12,500 Coal:

180 days of Premium:

20x  camouflages

5x camouglage:

30 Special signals: 

No. of SCs obtained: 

None-SC premium ships that were dropped (with tier): 

 

Due to the fact that Super containers drop mean that you had the ship originally, it is not relevant to collect what they dropped sadly....  and the name and server thing is so that I can share this template on reddit, feel free to ignore it on this forum. 

 

I am aiming for probably about 200-400 crates on each of the types of container.  I am personally unlikely to buy any, but I find the drop rates very interesting :) 

 

For interest lasts year's spreadsheet is here: 

 

Thank you in advance for your feedback and drop rates! 

 

Best,

Black_falcon120 

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Beta Tester
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Since i do intend to get a pack, i'll drop the info here. 

 

Edit: ok so 4 days later, here's my tally this year.

 

So i bought one of each 20 box packs from the shop.

20 mega boxes + 1 mega box:

 

-30 Wyvern flags

-5 Spring sky cammos

-4x 2000 doubloons

-30 Leviethan flags

-2x 30 Frosty fir cammos

-2x 30 Dragon flags

-2x 12500 coal

-30 Sycila flags

-2x 20 New year streamer cammos

-30 Ourborous flags

-Yudachi

-Shirocco

-USS Hill

 the 1 mega box gave the Ark Royal

 

The medium box pack:

-3x 12 New year streamer cammos

-2x 15 Ourborous flgs

-4x 12 Frosty fir cammo

-15 Sycila flags

-3x 15 Hydra flags

-3x 1000 Doubloons

-15 Red Dragon flags

-Exeter

-Cossak

-Genova

 

The small box pack:

-3x 50 Papa Papa

-2x 4 NYS cammo

-3x 2500 Coal

-3x 50 Zulu flags

-3x 4 Frosty fer cammo

-3x 10.000 FXP

-3x 300 Doubloons

 

So after that i decided to get a few more packs from the Armoury because..well...saved up a tonn of doubs through the years ,and had nothing better to blow them on.

Armoury box packs.

-2x 20 Medium boxes:

-6x 12 Frosty fir cammos

-2x 15 Leviethan flags

-3x 12 NYS cammos

-6x 1000 doubloons

-6x 7500 coal

-2x 15 ouborous flags

-4x 15 red dragon flags

-1x 15 hydra flags

-1x 15 dragon flags

-2x wyvern flags

-Graff Zeppelin

-Irian

-Wichita

-Bayard

-Vanguard

 

then i gotten 3x 20 small box pack (armoury again) witch i didnt pay attention to no more, gotten the Lenin, Massachusets and Saipan.

 

Edit: just to add i had over 50% of ships already, and all the rare ones minus the Enterprise, Fujin (got the other two variants) before getting the boxes. 

 

 

 

Edited by Major_Damage225
Finished, added thingies.

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Beta Tester
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Thank you to everyone.  Do you think I should ask people if they have more than 50% of the ships on the drop list so they don't skew the numbers?  My initial response is no, as no one really stockpiles low tier premiums, so if anything, it adds a negative skew, and a very small one at that, what do other people think? 

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Beta Tester
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7 hours ago, black_falcon120 said:

no one really stockpiles low tier premiums

why you think that? People who collect ships do keep all of them. I would say that most people that are buing such crates are people who are missing the least of ships so they can be more sure of what will drop.

Like for me buying this crates is mostly useless as they can drop only tier 5 or 6 or 7, as I think I have everything else.

Well ok I am missing Asashio but chances of that dropping are so low there is no reason to even try.

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[NWP]
Beta Tester, Players
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I'll edit this one in the case I buy some (most probably will get a few).

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[-RM-]
Beta Tester
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8 hours ago, black_falcon120 said:

Thank you to everyone.  Do you think I should ask people if they have more than 50% of the ships on the drop list so they don't skew the numbers?  My initial response is no, as no one really stockpiles low tier premiums, so if anything, it adds a negative skew, and a very small one at that, what do other people think? 

Low tier premiums are more often than not avaliable through missions, events or campaigns and gets thrown into boxes, so having a bunch of them limits the changes of receving them again. That is the reason why I atleast stockpile and keep them.

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[-MM]
Weekend Tester
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I'm a whale, and went somewhat nuts on it last year. So this year I've limited myself to 1 x 8 boxes of each type, more in the interests of science than anything else - I've got all but four premium ships. 

 

I didn't stack them, and only opened the small gifts in one go;

 

8 x Small gift boxes;

1000 dubloons

10k FXP

some signals

 

8 x medium gift boxes

3000 dubloons

Viribus Unitas

7500 coal

 

8 x big gift boxes

2000 dubloons

40 camos

some economic signals

 

So, in my small sample size, the medium boxes came up as a return on the money, and the big boxes were a waste of cash. 

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[-TPF-]
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Oh, Viribus Unitis. Nice. :Smile_sceptic:

 

Why do I have the feeling these boxes are going to drop assorted Tier Vs until you've got all of them, and only then go up the Tiers?

 

I don't really want that. I think I might just spend the £££ outright on things I want, and say "blow it" to grinds and loot boxes. 

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44 minutes ago, invicta2012 said:

Why do I have the feeling these boxes are going to drop assorted Tier Vs until you've got all of them, and only then go up the Tiers?

Same. I hope this thread gets updated fast, so we can have at least some general idea what we are getting from those drops.

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7 minutes ago, genosse said:

Same. I hope this thread gets updated fast, so we can have at least some general idea what we are getting from those drops.

Your picture gives me eye cancer

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6 minutes ago, mantiscore said:

Your picture gives me eye cancer

Then I suggest checking your eyes or your monitor. Or are you just not a fan of pink, minimalist waves? ;)

 

Edit:

 

Check out Patakk, where I stole this from. Great GIF artist.

https://patakk.tumblr.com/

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[HOTEL]
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Here, a good sample size.

No. of Mega Gift's opened: 205x
Server and IGN: EU Ced23Ric
2,000 doubloons: 39
12,500 Coal: 15
180 days of Premium: 3
20x  camouflages: 43
5x camouglage: 16
30 Special signals: 65
No. of SCs obtained: 21
None-SC premium ships that were dropped (with tier): 1x VI 2x VIII

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6 minutes ago, Ced23Ric said:

Here, a good sample size.

No. of Mega Gift's opened: 205x
Server and IGN: EU Ced23Ric
2,000 doubloons: 39
12,500 Coal: 15
180 days of Premium: 3
20x  camouflages: 43
5x camouglage: 16
30 Special signals: 65
No. of SCs obtained: 21
None-SC premium ships that were dropped (with tier): 1x VI 2x VIII

Wow that's a handful, thanks for sharing the info with us.

 

So, those 21 Supercontainers are a substitute for 21 that premium ships that would have dropped otherwise, correct?

That would make it a 10 % chance from your sample.

 

From the 3 ships you got in the end, was there one or more of the super rares (Kutu etc)?

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5 minutes ago, Ced23Ric said:

Here, a good sample size.

No. of Mega Gift's opened: 205x
Server and IGN: EU Ced23Ric
2,000 doubloons: 39
12,500 Coal: 15
180 days of Premium: 3
20x  camouflages: 43
5x camouglage: 16
30 Special signals: 65
No. of SCs obtained: 21
None-SC premium ships that were dropped (with tier): 1x VI 2x VIII

Holy sh*t. Hey i send you some boxes if you pay my student loans

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1 minute ago, genosse said:

So, those 21 Supercontainers are a substitute for 21 that premium ships that would have dropped otherwise, correct?

That would make it a 10 % chance from your sample.

 

From the 3 ships you got in the end, was there one or more of the super rares (Kutu etc)?

The 21 SC were all premium ships, from Tier V to VIII, with the Wichita, Saipan and Graf Zep standing out to me.

The 3 others were Terrible, Lenin and... Huanghe. (:Smile_amazed:)

2 minutes ago, mantiscore said:

Holy sh*t. Hey i send you some boxes if you pay my student loans

It's funny because I work for a (tuition-free) university.

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1 hour ago, Ced23Ric said:

Here, a good sample size.

No. of Mega Gift's opened: 205x
Server and IGN: EU Ced23Ric
2,000 doubloons: 39
12,500 Coal: 15
180 days of Premium: 3
20x  camouflages: 43
5x camouglage: 16
30 Special signals: 65
No. of SCs obtained: 21
None-SC premium ships that were dropped (with tier): 1x VI 2x VIII

Yap. Looks like 10%. Thank you for your sacrifice, komrade.

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[SHAFT]
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From those normal Santa containres 4 free / obtainable through TX ships i got:

 

3x300 Dub

4x10k FreeXP

1x50 Papapapa

1x50 Zulu Hotel

1x4 Frosty Fir Tree

1x4 New Year Streamer

1x2500 Coal

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[PANEU]
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  I whaled some christmas gifts myself

20x Mega pack: Abruzzi, Okhotnik, Huanghe, Dunkerque, Genova, 2000 gold + the usual crap

20x Big crates: Hood, Exeter, 90 days prem, 1000 gold + the usual crap

20x Mega pack: Siroco, 12500 coal, 12000 gold + the usual crap

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shot-19_12_12_13_47.39-0127.thumb.jpg.541d652cffbc4a150525b757368a9b56.jpg

 

The free Santa crates

 

shot-19_12_12_13_56.42-0364.thumb.jpg.bab69c15ef4168ce8af6c97fc87b1bd6.jpg

 

and 20 medium size bought

 

@black_falcon120  Be advised that the ship drop rate might be screwed on this one. Fujin was the only ship I didn't have

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[NEKO]
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40 times mega pack

 

3 x ships - Mutsu, Genova, Ark Royal

2 x 12500 coal

4 x 2000 doubloons

15 x premium flags

5 x premium camos (5)

11 x ugly camos (20)

 

4 times small

1 x Viribus Unitis

3 x economy flags.

 

So far crappiest NY event. And even if I am aware that it is a gamble, it has previously been that you at least get your value back, but not this time :)

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11 minutes ago, chahuru said:

40 times mega pack

 

3 x ships - Mutsu, Genova, Ark Royal

2 x 12500 coal

4 x 2000 doubloons

15 x premium flags

5 x premium camos (5)

11 x ugly camos (20)

 

4 times small

1 x Viribus Unitis

3 x economy flags.

 

So far crappiest NY event. And even if I am aware that it is a gamble, it has previously been that you at least get your value back, but not this time :)

Thanks, I'll keep my money. I always spent in Xmas crates cause it was good value, even if I didn't get all that I wanted, but now it isn't even worth it.

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1 minute ago, valrond said:

keep my money

definitely do so - unless you plan to spend it on worse crap - then you might get lucky probably  :)

I guess this money spent on two bottles of Rum Anniversario or selection cognac is WAAAY better spent

 

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