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NothingButTheRain

Twilight filth bundles? I'm not buying it.

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So everybody knows the main prize of these random bundles are the permacamos which you can gamble on using filth. The ones for 500 filth have the main prize of a tier 8 permacamo, the 2000 filth ones have the tier 9 permacamo and the ones costing 8000 filth have the tier 10 permacamos.

 

Now these bundles are supposed to be random, right? Then why is the spread indicating that the permacamos have an increased chance of being located around the edges instead of being fully randomly assigned a slot within the line?

I got the camos either within the first 5, or within the last 3 locations. Never in between.

@XDMeloniXD mentioned that he received the tier 10 permacamo on the very last spot (so 24/24) and a clanmate got his tier 10 on the 3rd spot.

 

Anyone else having similar issues?

 

Am I just having some bad RNG or is something fishy going on here? To me this appears to be outside the limits of what can be expected with a standard roll of the dice, but having more voices with additional data would be nice.

 

So at what positions did you guys get the permacamos?

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[PUPSI]
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12 minutes ago, NothingButTheRain said:

So at what positions did you guys get the permacamos?

Tier 8: 6/18

Tier 9: 13/21

Tier 10: 24/24

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19 minutes ago, NothingButTheRain said:

 

@XDMeloniXD mentioned that he received the tier 10 permacamo on the very last spot (so 24/24) and a clanmate got his tier 10 on the 3rd spot.

 

Anyone else having similar issues?

 

Exactly the same experience. A bunch of clan mates got their t10 permacamo in the first few slots. Mine was literally in the last bundle, 24/24.

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WG's RNG is special.

 

It seems like an everyday RNG but it's actually rigged just a lil bit, comrade.

 

I got T8 and T9 in the first few bundles. When I saw that T10 will be at the end, I gave up.

 

Whoever says it's simply RNG either doesn't have a proper sample to check the facts or wants to be on WG's side no matter what.

 

From my experience, experience from clan mates, ppl I talked in chat and based on some threads here in the forum... all camos were obtained either at the very beginning or at the very end.

 

T10 for example was found in the last (or last few) bundles most of the time.

 

That can't be a coincidence but WG will never acknowledge that.

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[HANDS]
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i start with T10 and got it from 4/24,

then i did T9 and got it in 17/21,

finally i made T8  and got it in 13/18

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[SLUG]
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Was lucky with the T8 and T9 camos - got them on the 3rd and 4th bundles.

 

As for the T10 - not got the camo yet and am on bundle 15/24. Don't think I'm going to get the T10 camo before the event ends -- no time -- but I don't have a T10 ship to put it on, so no tears before bedtime from me.

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[KOKOS]
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Only got the T8 camo, but this was my very first roll, so it seems to match your experience.

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Weekend Tester
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There might actually be something to this conspiracy theory! I got my T10 camo on the very first bundle, my T8 on the very last bundle and I'm yet to get the T9 one having opened 15/21. Couldn't care less about the camos though, won't use them, I played this game mode for the coal bundles, the fun and the crazy amounts of Free XP/Elite Commander XP you could grind.

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[SHAFT]
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T8 Camo 18/18

T9 Camo 15/21

T10 camo dont bother, i see 5th package aint there. Probably somewhere in the back aswell.

 

Added bonus:

Genova 18/22

 

Yup, working as intended :fish_book: "RNG" my [edited].

I assume, the drop gets rolled every time you open a package, and the main price has a lower chance than all others (resulting in them being at the end more often). Maybe they threw some lucky ones in there, so it doesnt look rigged and they can say "well some were lucky and got it in first 3 packages".

Someone made the poll about Genova, and i think it was >40% in the last 5th slots... makes no sense, atleast if it has a similar chance. At the same time, 1st slot had an usual high chance too (why? well, i say rigged)

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2 hours ago, NothingButTheRain said:

Anyone else having similar issues?

 

Tier 10: still on it, 13 opened, 14 isnt the camo

Tier 9: 18/21

Tier 8: ignoring that one, maybe will do in the end (got 8 opened, 9 isnt the camo either.

 

I have no real hope to get the T10 one. I might be able to do 3 or 4 more.

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14 minutes ago, DFens_666 said:

Someone made the poll about Genova, and i think it was >40% in the last 5th slots

https://forum.worldofwarships.eu/topic/125558-for-those-who-got-genova-via-the-randomrandom-22-part-queue-at-which-place-did-you-get-it/

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25 minutes ago, DFens_666 said:

Someone made the poll about Genova, and i think it was >40% in the last 5th slots... makes no sense, atleast if it has a similar chance. At the same time, 1st slot had an usual high chance too (why? well, i say rigged)

There is the reporting bias. People are happy drawing something on the first slot, so they post. People are frustrated drawing something on the last few slots, so they post. People drawing something in the middle, are less likely to report their normal experience.

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9 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

There is the reporting bias. People are happy drawing something on the first slot, so they post. People are frustrated drawing something on the last few slots, so they post. People drawing something in the middle, are less likely to report their normal experience.

 

Could be, but on the other hand 300+ people voted on that poll. Most of the active forum members are regulars, they play a lot and they vote regardless. Sadly, poll is private so we cant see who voted, but i guess we know the majority of them. Most people wont bother with the forums anyway, i dont see them coming here because they were unlucky with the RNG bundles (well, maybe a handful). They would need to know the existance of that poll in the first place, which they couldnt.

So basicly it would mean, the active forum members are less lucky than the average player - seems kinda far fetched.

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1 minute ago, DFens_666 said:

 

Could be, but on the other hand 300+ people voted on that poll. Most of the active forum members are regulars, they play a lot and they vote regardless. Sadly, poll is private so we cant see who voted, but i guess we know the majority of them. Most people wont bother with the forums anyway, i dont see them coming here because they were unlucky with the RNG bundles (well, maybe a handful). They would need to know the existance of that poll in the first place, which they couldnt.

So basicly it would mean, the active forum members are less lucky than the average player - seems kinda far fetched.

Well, we don't know for sure. The hardcore forum members probably vote in all polls, but there can be members who only read/vote a few topics they are interested in. My point was that a non randomized poll is biased, and you cannot base far-fetched conclusions about it. If you want, we can collect some 20-40 hardcore forum members, who pledge to vote for the next such poll, and we would only take into account their votes. That would be unbiased sampling, but not easy to organize.

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2 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

If you want, we can collect some 20-40 hardcore forum members, who pledge to vote for the next such poll, and we would only take into account their votes. That would be unbiased sampling, but not easy to organize.

 

I only need to ask all the guys in our Discord. Result? same as the already mentioned voted.

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I was in a comfortable spot. I wasn't interested in these gut wrenching camos, quite the opposite. I stopped any activity on a group after camo got unlocked.

 

So T8 was on 4th slot, T9 was in the first slot. T10 I have no idea, stopped at 4th "reward". Not played that much to unlock it as 8000 Filth was stupidly huge amount for paltry rewards. Converted everything to credits.

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A Div mate reported he got the TX camo on the 24th slot. I've only made it to 5/24 but am not busting my arse for a "3x Wyvern and 3x Basilisk flags" bundle.

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[JRM]
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I got the T8 one around 8-9 i think (cant remember),  T9 one at last (was it 21?) and the T10 one at place 11

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[BG-DR]
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T8 camo - 13th bundle
T9 camo - 3rd bundle
T10 camo - not yet, 8 opened, it isnt in 9th either

Clan mate got T10 camo in 1st bundle... What a lucky bastard :Smile_medal:

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