Poll: Drop chance of normal Italian cruiser container

[Ocsimano18]

From the first two directives and the daily logins, we could collect 5 regular Italian cruiser containers. It's time to estimate the drop chances to see if you should spend Italian tokens on buying more regular cruiser crates. Please only answer the poll if you have opened your firts five containers, and only give the results for the first five regular containers.

[Klopirat]

2 minutes ago, Ocsimano18 said:

From the first two directives and the daily logins, we could collect 5 regular Italian cruiser containers. It's time to estimate the drop chances to see if you should spend Italian tokens on buying more regular cruiser crates. Please only answer the poll if you have opened your firts five containers, and only give the results for the first five regular containers.

your poll is missing many options, for players who received missions from premium containers before opening the free ones, because of course drops from premium containers have an influence on the drop rates for normal containers (since you cannot get a mission multiple times)...

[wot_2016_gunner]

1 minuto fa, Ocsimano18 ha scritto:

From the first two directives and the daily logins, we could collect 5 regular Italian cruiser containers. It's time to estimate the drop chances to see if you should spend Italian tokens on buying more regular cruiser crates. Please only answer the poll if you have opened your firts five containers, and only give the results for the first five regular containers.

I opened three crates so far (no premium); I'll vote when I'll have completed the second directive. So far I got the Montecuccoli from the first container of the first directive. I'm planning to get the perma-camos for Tier 5, 6 and 7 with the tokens.

[Hanse77SWE]

I got all four from premium containers so the correct answer would be "0". But it would also be wrong.

[Ocsimano18]

11 minutes ago, Klopirat said:

your poll is missing many options, for players who received missions from premium containers before opening the free ones, because of course drops from premium containers have an influence on the drop rates for normal containers (since you cannot get a mission multiple times)...

I think that the chances are the same, even if you already opened premium containers, except if you have all four ships, when the chance is zero, but then you don't answer the poll. My reasoning is that when you would get an already existing ship, then probably you get a reroll for a new ship. As I have seen from the premium drop chance lists,  they seem to have no less chance to get your third or four mission, when you already have some. If there woukd be no reroll, the chances would be diminishing.

[Ocsimano18]

6 minutes ago, Hanse77SWE said:

I got all four from premium containers so the correct answer would be "0". But it would also be wrong.

Added a vote option, my initial idea was that you won't vote in this case, but I don't want you to feel excluded.

[Sir_Sinksalot]

These ship missions you refer too, are they missions whereby you get a free Italian ship upon completion or missions that only a certain Italian ship can play and get lots of goodies? 

[Ocsimano18]

1 hour ago, Sir_Sinksalot said:

These ship missions you refer too, are they missions whereby you get a free Italian ship upon completion or missions that only a certain Italian ship can play and get lots of goodies? 

For the new ships, thanks for the remark, I extended the question in the poll.

[Castor_Tyndarides]

Got all 4 of the from the first 5 premium i bought. 

[Needy_Game]

over 10 containers open, and i only got one mission, for the T5 Raimondo Montecuccoli, the ship itself is nothing remarkable and very boring tbh.

 

 

[MrFingers]

Container 2 & 3 (free ones) gave Montecuccoli & Trento. So a "66%" hitrate, then it went south quickly, not going to pursue any more containers apart from the ones that drop from the directives if I can be bothered to go on with those.

[martin035]

Got the Trento from the 1st box after completing directive 2 

 

Not the easiest of ships to play

[Ocsimano18]

As of now, Thursday 8PM CET, we have 55 votes. 34 for 0 container, 16 for 1 container from 5 regular crates.

 

I did some math below, I highlighted the chances with boldface.

 

I do not consider the response with 3 containers, as it is an outlier that would bias the results, also it can be a vote by mistake. So we have (34 + 16) x 5 = 250 containers, of which we have 16 missions. That is, there is a mission in every 15-16th container, on the average.

 

I calculated the likelihoods of obtaining at least 1, 2, 3, and 4 ships, if you have 35 crates. If you have no ships yet and get 7 more containers from the second and third directives and buy 28 containers for 1960 tokens, then you can have that quantity. So the chances for 36 regular crates are:

0 ships: 9.9%

At least 1 ship: 90,1%

At least 2 ships: 66.5%

At least 3 ships: 39%

4 ships: 18.2%

It's not intuitive, but if you already have 1 ship, then it worth you more to buy crates, as you have 66.5% chance for 3 ships, and 39% for 4 ships in total. Also, the estimation is probably biased, as people choose to vote here, and maybe people are more/less likely to vote, if they already have a ship.

 

Premium container chances according to Little White Mouse (posted on the US  forum, based on 150 premium crates):

• Odds of seeing Amalfi from your first 15 premium crates:  3 in 10
• Odds of seeing Zara from your first 15 premium crates: 6 in 10
• Odds of seeing Trento from your first 15 premium crates: 8 in 10
• Odds of seeing Montecuccoli from your first 15 premium crates: 9 in 10

I suppose that we have similarly lower chance for a tier 7 and 8 ship, than for tier 5 and 6 ship, in case of regular containers. Also the chances of getting a higher tier ship is better, if you already have a lower tier ship, because of the re-roll.

 

The graph below shows the chances of getting exactly 0/1/2/3/4 ships from 35 regular crates.

[JapLance]

I opened 6 containers (4 from directives, 1 from logging in and 1 I bought in Armory for tokens) and got no cruiser missions. Not even the shitty T5 (14 secs reload in 4x2 152mm guns LOL).

[Bad_Mojo_incoming]

I opened up about 15 or so containers so far, all free, bought with italian tokens (as I will NEVER give WG another cent of my money for anything) and all I got was the mission for the useless Montecucolli...man, that ship is beyond sad...

 

The only really good thing that came from the italian containers is the gold I got...400 dumbloons so far. I will keep buying all the containers I can with tokens for more gold and maybe I get lucky again and get another cruiser mission...as I can only get better ships now that I have the crappiest...The booster flag will remain in storage until I can get free premium time again.

 

Just bought the Baltimore yesterday, so I'm kinda in need of credits, so if get more Italian cruisers, they will be sold as I can't make them work for me.

What's the Amalfi like? Is it any better generally then the Tier 5 tragedy?

[Ocsimano18]

According to the current state of the votes (49:19 for 0/1 ship), you have a mission in every 18th regular container, on the average. That means that if you buy 12 free containers, then you have approximately 50% chance to get at least 1 mission, and 50% chance to get no mission. (using the math above).

 

Also, for the token price of 12 regular crates, you can get 70 Regia Marina camos, giving 100% XP, 50% commanderXP and 100% freeXP boost.

[Jonty_C]

Out of every possible container from login, directives and tokens up to this point I've had only the Monte, that's a minimum of 20 (plus maybe one or two of the combat missions giving enough tokens, I know one of them gave 100).

 

[Ocsimano18]

5 hours ago, Jonty_C said:

Out of every possible container from login, directives and tokens up to this point I've had only the Monte, that's a minimum of 20 (plus maybe one or two of the combat missions giving enough tokens, I know one of them gave 100).

 

If you get 20 more crates (6 from the directives and 14 for 980 tokens) then you will have  69% chance to get at least one more ship, and 32% chance to get at least two more ships, and 31% chance to get no more ships.

[wot_2016_gunner]

Just finished the second stage of the directives, so far got only Raimondo Montecuccoli, she actually turned out to be quite fun, the reload might still need some very small buffs and the ricochet angles need to be brought back to the pre-nerf values, but she's actually fun imo.

[Mad_Dog_Dante]

I got the tier v and vi in a total of 12 crates it is I think?

[Admiral_H_Nelson]

*UPDATE*

I have now opened 14 crates obtained from directives/missions ....and still no Italian cruisers!

 

Everything that I have seen about them from CCs, or heard from other players leads me to believe that they are very much an "acquired taste" (to use the diplomatic phrase).

 

This may be a blessing in disguise. I don't like the idea of having to grind these things from tier 1 so I won't bother. People who know me think that they would drive me nuts anyway! 

 

[Stronginthearms]

17 hours ago, Bad_Mojo_incoming said:

I opened up about 15 or so containers so far, all free, bought with italian tokens (as I will NEVER give WG another cent of my money for anything) and all I got was the mission for the useless Montecucolli...man, that ship is beyond sad...

 

The only really good thing that came from the italian containers is the gold I got...400 dumbloons so far. I will keep buying all the containers I can with tokens for more gold and maybe I get lucky again and get another cruiser mission...as I can only get better ships now that I have the crappiest...The booster flag will remain in storage until I can get free premium time again.

 

Just bought the Baltimore yesterday, so I'm kinda in need of credits, so if get more Italian cruisers, they will be sold as I can't make them work for me.

What's the Amalfi like? Is it any better generally then the Tier 5 tragedy?

your lucky I got all the tokens so far and NOT 1 ship, mind you the same as russian battleships 1 t5, rn destroyers 1 t6 and sweeet FA in the french. So about right then

[Yedwy]

Got T5, 6 & 8 from Prem, didnt get any from standard...

[Leo_Apollo11]

Hi all,

 

As already mentioned I got "Zara" from my first and only "Premium Italian Container" - the 6 "regular" ones didn't bring anything (as expected)...

 

 

Leo "Apollo11"

[RenamedUser_92906789]

Zero, zip, nada, null.

 

I also opened 14 random bundles so far ... same story with the Genova.

Same for the coal drops in the bundles (my goal)... got 3 coal drops so far  (around 5k) .. mostly I got signals.

 

But I did get a SC after months (I always pick resources in hope for coal).

I got 100 of those special red flags (not dragon).

 

I guess that is my punishment for not spending any money on the game in 2019.