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Sturmsee

Streaks in Ranked

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Does anyone else wonder about winning and losing streaks in Ranked?

First thing if you feel the urge to make this thread about your awesome stats or skills, please don’t. If you are absolutely top tier, you might not experience what I am on about.

 

I hear from basically every player in Ranked that they have surprisingly long streaks between rank 12 and 7, up and down, multiple wins or losses in a row.

They are actually rather off-putting.


E.g. my personal longest in both directions is 9 wins or losses in a row. A lot of times there are longer streaks but for one outlier.

 

Statistically this can’t be supported by personal causes because there is the team and you can damage or carry it only so far. The length of the streaks would not even be explainable if all of a sudden you reverted from being extremely poor to extremely good or vice versa.

 

It is quite frustrating on the way down of course and the more it happens the less ‘believable’ and rewarding are the streaks up, in a sense.

 

The more I hear others complain the more likely it feels something is off.

 

It’s an emperor clothes situation to try to talk about: mentioning this attracts all the trolls who have nothing to say but you are stupid. So to repeat: there are also streaks up, which mirror the streaks down. Obviously it’s easier to accept streaks up as your very own achievement and just fair. But the streaks down put in question whether the streaks up are all that they seem to be.

 

I feel there is something happening – whatever it may be, in MM, in bonuses to RNG in-game, in compensating for latency – that has gotten out of hands or creates massively unintended consequences, pre-ordaining the win. It seems to be less severe in any other mode than Ranked. It’s not he infamous “oh, 3:0 radars, thanks MM” either because while broken that happens either way and should create volatility (i.e. more likeliness to break streaks), not streaks. My suspicion du jour is tampering with damage range of shells – but it is really only that, shopping around for what the hell it might be. I am not saying it is this.

 

This is not about the threshold between leagues either, e.g. rank 11 to 10 in season 13, where inevitably one has a disproportionally harder time in 10 as opposed to 11 and at a certain skill level will be bumped back into 11 fast. It is about climbing from 11 to 8 in one go and then get bumped back to 12.

 

The obvious answer would be, those streaks just reveal your form of the moment. But they are too long, too often, too predictable and too extreme to be that. Think about it, even 9x AFK should rarely lead to 9 losses straight really. There are too many games with someone AFK that are won (obviously that’s remarkable in itself but in each case it’s quite obvious what happens on the strategic level – caution, confusion on the other side, just that bit more team work and ambition to cope.)

 

There WILL be numerous factors why oneself is to blame in PART. My point is that they do not suffice. Drugs, sleep deprivation, running out of flags, bad internet connection, fragmented main memory etc. Many of them would logically kick in after long stretches of play. But it seems as likely to get into a winning streak after a long while as it is to get into a losing one. That defeats many of the more technical thoughts.

 

However, the length of streaks makes them seem hard to explain by any of these self-caused factors, because one’s own influence on the outcome of a game is limited. Both ways, up and down, a really bad player will sometimes be carried, a really good one sometimes can’t carry.

 

Of course for some time you try to accept them as statistical outliers but after the third or fourth time you start to question that.

 

To me the game has changed into trying to understand what triggers the streaks – while trying hard to ignore them and just focussing on getting better. I know most people experiencing them just quit. This post is in no small part to help - IN case the observation is real - that this atrophy stops. I understand that really top players might never see the streaks, being able to break them for their sheer quality of play. That makes it just more of a problem. It seems for all mere mortals who I know they are real and annoying. Worse, disheartening and making them dropping out of Ranked. In fact it’s the story of every good player I know who did drop out of Ranked: because the streaks of bad luck — or if you prefer of continuously getting bad team mates — on top of anti social play just gets too much. Just make one feel like one can’t make a difference. Then why play. 

 

I had previously suggested that Karma was a factor, but no longer think that. I have pretty positive proof from observation now that Karma follows the streaks, NOT causing them. Experienced players always knew it. On a winning streak, team mates are happy and vote you up sometimes. On a losing streak team mates usually rage and sometimes find you are all to blame and vote you down. After a winning streak I tend to have some positive Karma. After a losing streak it’s back at 0. This really makes Karma, indirectly, yet more useless than it seems to be (the hope that it is not inspires me to be helpful in the chat and in-game as a meta play. But most people have but ridicule for the stat it seems.)

 

The thing is, I don’t get a better or worse player, swear more or less, the way the streaks (and then Karma) would suggest.

 

I would not hold it against the devs of WoWs if they do some fancy magic behind the scenes to make the game more rewarding to a select group of people. I would like to help to draw attention to the fact that something might be failing in ways that drive players off, as they feel they are subject to random wins and losses. If it is unintended, it should be very easy to corroborate from the stats WoWs has that the length of the streaks is in-fact suspicious. At any rate, it works against player’s engagement, which is a coveted element to strengthen rather to inadvertently deteriorate. It takes away your feeling of agency and makes you question your achievements, too. The very reward of playing Ranked should in theory be to be up against similarly skilled players and therefore get just the right test of your skills, appropriate for your individual level. The streaks totally destroy the chance of this experience.

 

To be clear, statistically the LENGTH and the REPEAT of the streaks is unconvincing. Something like five times the same result should be an anomaly already.

 

Do you experience the same? How long are they for you? Did you find out what is behind it? How to break them as a short cut for more rewarding play (I don’t mean cheats)?

 

Again, please don’t abuse this thread for pointing out how great your stats are. We love you, we really do. This is about strange length and frequency of winning streaks as much as losing streaks. Thanks!

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I only skimmed over this wall of text, but it seems to me you're implying there something fishy going on with win/ loss streaks… 

 

I have a new method for ran ked games, that seems to work quite well so far ( although a rather small sample size of games played ), which can be summed up in one sentence: One ranked game a day keeps the insanity away.  

 

 

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Listen, first I upvoted cuz it is something that will get u downvotes so balans :)

Second, mm is performing how it is supposed to, meaning... no game is random. None. The result may be, due to many factors but these factors determine only about 30% of the total outcome. While I kinda abandoned the whole matter since I figure it out (how it works) don't expect anyone to give you an opinion or applaud dis. Some don't know, those who do (as you mention) won't tell because they can't or not allowed. 

 

I will give you a hint though. In your next game check wr and (total games played) of yours and the opponent team. If you look closely you will soon realize that one team gets the 'good' dds, the other not. One team gets the 'good' cv, the other not , the 'radars' etc and so forth. It will reveal the base concept on how this notorious "secret' mm determines selection and most of the times streaks (good or bad). Is it a hidden attempt to balans stuff out? Well, it all comes back to profit and the human mindset. We like winning, we hate losing. That's profit. 

 

This is imo, many times stated but as I said I don't care anymore. I know 90% of the times the outcome of each game. I also know that I don't the breathing room for mistakes since I'm not a good player or as good as others. So in a coming crashing loss it would need a phenomenal performance from me (a bad player) to turn it around. When it happens the mm will slaughter me for ten games in a row as punishment haha. I'm joking :) I have seen good players in my team quit as soon as they realize 'this is a loss'. Yes it is the players fault but someone picks them and it picks following a specific plan or code. :)  

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I feel you. I have ships with purple / way above average stats (without suiciding and red lining) and a 20-40% bot win rate, which is even worse than staying afk all game, while I have ships in which I cannot perform at all and have a 60+% win rate.

There is no logic explanation for win and loosing streak phenomenon, than just the overall amount of games you take into your own consideration.

Stats are heavily depending on matchmaking for bad and average players especially, who simply cannot compensate a handful of missing players in the own team, while very good players can do that. Afterall the win rate is the best indicator for "skill" in relation to the games played overall, because very good players can carry a match and constantly improve their performance, while the vast majority of the players are extreme bots.

Sometimes, I cannot get the daily win bonus with 10+ games. Then again I win all games with a 66% win rate and super unicum PR. If you are on the edge of a beginner and an okay or good player, the largest influence on this game behaviour is you, because for all your okay, good and very good games, you have total fails also. Good players reduce the amount of fails and learn faster than others.

Therefore, the tiers you play do not play a role at all, because being an average player does not have the deciding influence on any tier if you cannot compensate for 3-5 own players.

Additionally the matchmaker weighs you in against a player in a similar ship configuration and maybe some stats values (I am not sure about this), which does not say anything at all about the performance progression of this player. Sometimes he is way better than you and just has bad values in this special ship, sometimes this player is far worse.

You can find the "proof" of my observations in the waterfall wins and losses which occur more and more often in my opinion. Waterfall losses meaning games, where your team almost dies entirely, while the enemy team loses zero or only a handful of ships.

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1 minute ago, Von_Pruss said:

I feel you. I have ships with purple / way above average stats (without suiciding and red lining) and a 20-40% bot win rate, which is even worse than staying afk all game, while I have ships in which I cannot perform at all and have a 60+% win rate.

There is no logic explanation for win and loosing streak phenomenon, than just the overall amount of games you take into your own consideration.

Stats are heavily depending on matchmaking for bad and average players especially, who simply cannot compensate a handful of missing players in the own team, while very good players can do that. Afterall the win rate is the best indicator for "skill" in relation to the games played overall, because very good players can carry a match and constantly improve their performance, while the vast majority of the players are extreme bots.

Sometimes, I cannot get the daily win bonus with 10+ games. Then again I win all games with a 66% win rate and super unicum PR. If you are on the edge of a beginner and an okay or good player, the largest influence on this game behaviour is you, because for all your okay, good and very good games, you have total fails also. Good players reduce the amount of fails and learn faster than others.

Therefore, the tiers you play do not play a role at all, because being an average player does not have the deciding influence on any tier if you cannot compensate for 3-5 own players.

Additionally the matchmaker weighs you in against a player in a similar ship configuration and maybe some stats values (I am not sure about this), which does not say anything at all about the performance progression of this player. Sometimes he is way better than you and just has bad values in this special ship, sometimes this player is far worse.

You can find the "proof" of my observations in the waterfall wins and losses which occur more and more often in my opinion. Waterfall losses meaning games, where your team almost dies entirely, while the enemy team loses zero or only a handful of ships.

Yep

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And to stray in some salt: You actually have a better win rate in Ranked than in Random battles. I know you are relating to win and loss series, but they depend on each player's performance. With a sub-400 PR overall in the tier span of tier 5 to tier 10 and a top average damage of 25k overall you have close to zero impact on the games you play and this is what directly puts a loosing tendency on your game's scale because your performance hinders your team from winning more than it allows for it. I know this is hardcore frustrating and I am too fighting my way out of it, but you really need to improve your performance to make a difference. After a couple of thousand games you will see the difference, if you improve. Trust me!

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It all tends to 50-50, like throwing a coin, but you can have long streaks.

If it is really random then it behaves as nature does.

 

I doubt anything is 100% random when programming, but players are really random because of their human nature.

 

 

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Ranked is crazy frustrating ... I litteraly spent over 200 games on Rank 4. Lose one, win one, lose one, and so on, just to come back after holidays and go from R4 to R1 in one go without losing a single game. Getting to R4 was one big win streak with over 75% win rate too ..

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Ranked has become totally useless and absolutely no fun.

Almost 200 games, still almost no progress from R5.

You asked if it's rigged? It absolutely is, no doubt about that.

 

 

They should set a stat-wise requirement, reduce the stars required to advance dramatically and ban prems.

Ranked should be for "better" people and not 48% Grandpa Willie.

 

If there wont be any changes in future this is will be my last season (just playing as I have to Jut).

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1 hour ago, Corvi said:

Ranked is crazy frustrating ... I litteraly spent over 200 games on Rank 4. Lose one, win one, lose one, and so on, just to come back after holidays and go from R4 to R1 in one go without losing a single game. Getting to R4 was one big win streak with over 75% win rate too ..

I should be due for a comfortable carry to Rank 1 soon, I hope.

 

I've had some pretty obscure streaks too. Not sure what to think about it. I suppose it's me and RNG, but I'm not ruling out any conspiracies :Smile_sceptic:

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8 hours ago, Sturmsee said:

To be clear, statistically the LENGTH and the REPEAT of the streaks is unconvincing. Something like five times the same result should be an anomaly already.

Probability for a streak of five wins or losses is 6.25% if you are a 50% player. Enough matches and it's basically guaranteed to happen - and the number required is not that big. Even the best players can't carry every match and for a 60%+ player loss streaks are less common and for a 40% player more common, but everyone gets streaks.

 

Try a neutral coin toss program (computer based RNGs are often a bit questionable, but for our purposes for example this should suffice: http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Coin/) to get some kind of a feel for completely random series'. I threw a set of 1000 coins and basically instantly got a streak of 10 tails.

 

Streaks are basically completely normal even when something is completely random and when you count in the human factors like playing when totally tilt, they become even more common. This is of course not proof that WG isn't tampering with the games, but to prove otherwise you'd need a huge amount of data to prove that patterns exist.

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Long streaks in both directions can be a sign for:

  • you being an average player
  • you being in an ranking enviroment where other players have a similar skill to yours

As you explained, many people encounter this at a certain ranked bracket. I would not be surprised if players of a similar skill accumulate there.

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16 hours ago, Sturmsee said:

Statistically this can’t be supported

wrong. Statistically anything can be supported, just take stats that support your claim.

 

For example in serious ranks I am win/lose/win/lose with occasional win/win/lose.

 

In rank 23 to 10 you just win everything if you are half decent. With occasional loses if you blunder.

 

Have you seen summary of rogue wave? One guy had 45 wins in a row, other 67 loses in a row (or something similar). Work as it should. If there would be some rigging involved it would never happened, unless you assume that they purposfully chosen some lucky and unlucky guy to have stats that look right. But then no amount of evidence can convice you that game is not rigged.

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I simply stopped playing ranked games.

Initially I hit rank ten with one star with a 100% success rate from rank fifteen.

 

Sixty four frustrating games later I finally manage to get back to rank ten with one star after being unable to break out from rank twelve.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Migantium_Mashum said:

I simply stopped playing ranked games.

Initially I hit rank ten with one star with a 100% success rate from rank fifteen.

 

Sixty four frustrating games later I finally manage to get back to rank ten with one star after being unable to break out from rank twelve.

 

Thank you.

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19 hours ago, General_Kunde said:

Ranked has become totally useless and absolutely no fun.

Almost 200 games, still almost no progress from R5.

You asked if it's rigged? It absolutely is, no doubt about that.

 

Ranked should be for "better" people and not 48% Grandpa Willie.

This is quite interesting. You might ask yourself if perhaps you reached the rank level that compliments your skill level?

Also lol @ Grandpa Wille, thats arrogant and ignorant at the same time. Well played sir!

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4 hours ago, Europizza said:

This is quite interesting. You might ask yourself if perhaps you reached the rank level that compliments your skill level?

Also lol @ Grandpa Wille, thats arrogant and ignorant at the same time. Well played sir!

 

I played enough Ranked to be able to have an opinion on how it runs.

 

Also, do you think football world championship would be a success with a mixed team of amateurs and professionals?

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3 minutes ago, General_Kunde said:

 

I played enough Ranked to be able to have an opinion on how it runs.

 

Also, do you think football world championship would be a success with a mixed team of amateurs and professionals?

Comparing wows ranked season to World cup football. Again, hat off to you sir!

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7 minutes ago, Europizza said:

Comparing wows ranked season to World cup football. Again, hat off to you sir!

If you don't get the analogy, well, it's not worth to debate with you.

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