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Sturmsee

Karma and Game Theory

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Here is a thought re Karma and Ranked.

 

TL;DR

I am speculating that karma is actually being used to influence battle outcomes, causing winning and losing streaks in Ranked. And I propose that the Karma mechanism should be slightly altered to make it work, based on game theory basics.

 

The Story

As was often the case before, I am stuck in Ranked in a range of ranks, this time with the bottom that I sometimes bump back to being the irrevocable 12. I am hearing from others that they have similar experience of winning and losing streaks that seem implausible. Meaning: once I manage to get back into league one, i.e. rank 10 and higher (9, 8, …), I manage to reach higher up, to rank 9 or 8, before I get on a losing streak that sees me losing battles almost without any wins in-between to the tune of 10 to 15 in a row.

 

This pattern was odd the first time but it keeps repeating and now is not plausibly ‘bad luck’ anymore. Plus a friend has reported the same experience (and gave up on Ranked for it).

 

Possible explanations could be: 1) getting tired, 2) player population and with it play style changes because of different time of day, 3) signals or cameo have run out and change the stats of your ship without you realizing it at first, 4) secret karma effects.

 

If you do look up my stats and feel a temptation to comment how bad they are, let me pre-empt this: they accumulate all of my newbie games. They do not necessarily reflect how I play today. That’s the nature of statistics. I do have losing streaks. This whole post is about that. I would never claim I am a top player. I am solid 2nd league.

 

So as a cause of these streaks, good and bad:

 

1) Tiredness

is definitely a factor and one where one has bad self-awareness about. Hence those reaction time-tests if you should still drive back in the day. You are not well aware when you are not fully aware anymore it’s just how we work. But I believe that I saw the reversal of luck to the positive at points when I must have been just even more tired. Did you personally observe that, too?

 

2) Players

Different parts of the world play at different times on the EU servers and the most obvious is that during some times the chat falls silent, team interaction changes markedly. I know the effect from other MMOs, depending of time of day or night style is just different. Some player populations might be a great match, some you expect the wrong things from your team mates until you adapt. You also keep irritating them (e.g. for ‘getting killed too fast’ while you might wonder why the cover you were certain to have just didn’t materialize).  Ranked is extremely cut throat at any rate and the spectrum towards the little co-operation that people allow is happening vs. no team play at all, can make a big difference in a team game like WoWs. In fact, Ranked might be the most interesting mode in WoWs exactly because the perverse incentive against team play comes to bear, while the team play rewards remain a reality regardless. It’s a massive dunk into what in game theory is called ‘tragedy of the commons:’ even if the bottom line for all would be best, if all contribute, it will still not happen if there is a way to maximize your gain at the expense of others (keep star).

 

3) Signals

is interesting because this is a legit source of income for WG and they are in business since 10 years for a reason. You can buy your advantage and good on them that it works to finance the games. However since a while now I keep an eye on it. It’s a factor but not the one that explains the long-last of the winning and losing streaks. And I am pretty sure meanwhile the running out does not match with the up and down trajectory of the streaks. I am sometimes consistently lucky without signals and unlucky with 8/8. But I did not do a scientific study on it either.

 

4) Karma (speculation)

I observed that something else happens: when I am stuck between leagues with my skills like in the moment, too good for league two (ranks 18-11), too bad for league one (7-10 ranks is what I am MMed with) then what happens is that I start rallying the troops when in league two, those times I have bumped down to rank 11 or 12 myself, and most other players are lower ranked than me. I can see their errors, I can help make them see, and sometimes, it’s appreciated because I obviously carry the game from the number of kills and caps I contribute. I get on a roll, I then get some upvotes and a mini modest amount of karma (and the real question is, what happens first, roll or upvotes), with which I get back into the first leage (from rank 10). It seems to me, my ‘good luck’ (karma?) lasts for some games, until people down vote you for not doing what they command you to do, or just generally disagreeing with your actions, or for them disliking you in the chat, or for you genuinely ruining a match because you make a mistake. Which I do a lot in league 1. Any of these factors happen often enough around 5 to max 10 games in and in fact that is often how it appears to me it takes until I get on a losing streak that half of the time bumps me right back down to 12. Now especially when back in league 2, the losing streak makes no sense. I can still see everyone’s errors, help, and do carry games like two hours before when I last was in there. But the teams I am getting seem to invariably fare so badly that I can do what I want we lose.

 

If this was all orchestrated by WG behind the scenes, they might never admit it. They might be mildly using your karma value as factor in their random generation for shots, hits and MM.

 

If so, it works as a beautiful emulation of ‘bad karma.’ 

 

Karma (proposal)

The problem with this is that WG ignored the game theoretical mechanism of ‘altruistic punishment’ that kicks in here, or failed to stay away from punishment (reporting = reducing karma) altogether because it always can, and will, be abused for revenge by EXACTLY those people you meant to reign in with the karma system in the first place. It can become heavily counter-effective through this. If Karma is really just a number as people say, all you miss out on is a variation of play (playing for getting Karma up). If Karma is used behind the scenes, it is more problematic. (And I DO think we will never know).

 

But instead you would have to either only ever allow for positive Karma points, so the only ‘punishment’ would be to not give a point to someone who otherwise deserved it. In other words, just do away with 'reporting' but give more incentive to GIVE your Karma points away.

 

Or, you have to put a price on punishment, that works like a spam protection. Ask yourself, would you sometimes have paid to make sure a person wronged you was sanctioned? People will still use it and gladly pay the price, because we have innate desire to improve our social fabrics even at a cost — and actually especially at a cost. This is behind why people say ‘revenge is sweet:’ the cost of revenge is acceptable when the desire is real. Trolls, however, will not feel that it is smart to pay to troll. Opportunity to punish with no cost attached turns communities into a cess pool. The best leave because they have better things to do.

 

‘Karma’ as it works now does (obviously) not work to clean the language in the chats, the factor why I will actually soon leave WoWs I think, because it makes me feel bad every time I realize with what viciousness I share the bath tub (the annoying part obviously is to be ‘punished’ or abused for wrong reasons all the time by not so smart players). Of course, it makes team work and respect that much sweeter when it happens.

 

The point is, ‘reporting’ is abused to the degree that it prevents one (at least at my level) to play in a mode that one maximizes one’s own karma — which is an interesting past time that everyone will have tried and given up upon — it just doesn’t work because the mood tilting against you, or making a mistake, just erases all gains too fast. People frequently just don’t understand the good reasons behind your actions and lose it. Karma would be a quite interesting play though, as it taps into the natural inclination of many people to help and get acknowledged. (Or, who knows, it could tilt the chat into the unbearable other extreme.)

 

Reporting does effectively not work to encourage good manners, it is obvious that people rant with the conviction that it is their right to try and irk others. They will berate you just more if you mention that you will report them, convinced that it is a toothless tool for losers (WG, is it?), and they WILL just report you back to even scores.

 

Ganking — exploiting new players — is always a problem for online games, I know it from the programmer side. The cost to the community of a game is very high, even for the marketing budget of a games company. It can literally destroy millions of bucks if gankers alienate only half of all new players. The cost of WG to bring new players might be around 10 bucks — to make a super wild guess supported by some experience — most will leave at any rate. Many will leave because they get taunted in the chat and the gankers get exactly what their meta troll ‘game’ is: chase people away. They are by definition breaking the game as game. At the expense of the game company and the fans.


Everyone agrees that ‘Karma’ does not work as it is implemented right now. I would not hold it against WG if they do use karma behind the scenes as I described above, to slightly modify your luck or your MM and put you on a losing streak when karma indicates that you deserve it. And to keep that secret in the hopes that it will work better for it.

 

But it may just be designed wrong, without respecting the basics of game theory that free punishment will be abused by a bad apple minority against the common interest of a community. WoWs karma needs what is called ‘altruistic punishment’ –– even that will be abused but less so.

 

Optional Karma (proposal)

However, the only thing that really works is to allow for the community to self-select itself: by the simple measure of allowing a CHOICE to play with or without karma mechanism, the trolls will self-select themselves into a lawless lulz universe they like, where trolls freely enjoy abuse by trolls, and the rest of players who are interested in team work and respectful and a little bit boring communication, will select themselves into a different group. You just open up the choice and it happens, by virtue of people electing to allow social punishment on them or not. Interestingly this will be a bad scenario for WG only if the real business model is to provide ‘freeloading’ canon fodder too high rolling whales. But WoWs doesn’t really provide upside for whales, as far as I can see.

 

There is a sad reality behind that these mechanics work, but it’s what has statistically been shown to work. It’s actually how our societies work. In case you ever wondered why seemingly law-less enclaves are allowed in every major city by the powers that are.

 

Conclusion & Thanks to WG

So, make karma an optional mechanism! Make punishment (reporting) cost a doubloon or 10. Change MM so it tries to sort people into one team (or match) that plays without karma mechanism, or separate ones for only those who have it enabled. May solve player atrition.

 

It might get a much more enjoyable WoWs. The game is amazing guys, I so love it, well done.

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How does Karma make you play bad?

 

Just to clarify: You do not play badly, because your Karma goes down, but your Karma goes down, because you play badly.

 

I just wonder how one come up with such a bad conspiracy theory, while at the same time present valdid reasons for playing badly :fish_palm:

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2 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:

How does Karma make you play bad?

 

Just to clarify: You do not play badly, because your Karma goes down, but your Karma goes down, because you play badly.

 

I just wonder how one come up with such a bad conspiracy theory, while at the same time present valdid reasons for playing badly :fish_palm:

Such people want to find a justification for playing bad... 

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While I would like to see the Karma-system removed from the game I also think that you are pushing this past the point of reason.

 

Put the tinfoil-hat back on and forget the whole thing.

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@OP Well yesterday I played a match in ranked on Shards, pushing B cap and blowing some cruisers away with my Musa suddenly an enemy Musa decides he is Achillies incarnate and turns full broadside in front of me with resulting loss of 59k hp in a single salvo, guess he was karmically balanced at that moment

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While WG could be using the Karma system to govern the MM and outcome of battles, it seems far fetched and highly unlikely. I don't believe there's much more to the Karma system than we're being presented. Are there other things affecting the MM and RNG in battles? who knows?

 

As for @Sturmsee - I think you've reached your skill level for now. You can keep trying to progress through the ranks but I think you'll fall back again. If you want to succeed in Ranked in the future, you'd probably benefit from learning the game better and reaching 50% WR in low-mid tiers first.

 

Edit: You've got similar winrates in Z-46 for Randoms and Ranked. Considering you may meet better players in higher ranks, there's no reason to assume you will improve your winrate from Random games or climb the ranks much further.

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Certainly an interesting idea and I can tell you put a lot of work into writing this all down but I think your looking for a reason that just doesn't exist. Sometimes we have winning streaks and sometimes loosing streaks that's all. 

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32 minutes ago, Sturmsee said:

Here is a thought re Karma and Ranked.

 

 

 

Yes, TLDR, however my experience of the current Ranked season would seem to confirm the basis of your theory, ......if you want to believe in conspiracy and leave out all the other factors.

 

I started playing last night with 8 Karma (my most ever!) and despite often being top of the team (or very near the top) win or lose every now and again somebody decided whatever I'd done it wasn't what they wanted me to do. I lost the first Karma point because I went afk during the nationwide power cut, that is fair enough, but then you get players thinking you should bow tank the cap with your Saint Louis or 'why are you over there?' to which I reply 'I'm over here because I'm shooting at two enemy BB's without getting shot in return', or salty words to that effect. The point is it was the evening and players just wanted somebody to blame and rant and be toxic about, it's what Ranked is all about. It's easy to run out of complaints very quickly.

 

So daytime today I started with 3 Karma and won six out of seven battles, I didn't get anymore Karma, but I didn't lose any either. So this fits your theory, if you lose Karma and get to near zero you get easier battles and win more. Except it isn't, it's all about alcohol and tiredness in the evenings and having a clear head during the daytime. Players are far less salty in the daytime, they play better, and they rationalise better (some anyway). So I don't believe your theory at all, it's human nature to try and find explanations but sometimes the explanation is human nature itself.

 

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As far as game design. It's a tool for community managers to monitor unsportsmanship etc. behaviour and hawing a lot of + karma will result in your reports being taken seriously. It's an automation feature keeping WG worker ammout to a minimum. No in game effects whatsoever. Most offenders are dealt with automated punishments aka friendly fire, chat ban for profanity etc.

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Love the arrogance :D 

 

"there's no reason to assume you will improve"

 

Ofc, I am improving all the time, that's the fun of it :D my point is in no small part that WoWs stats are really bad at reflecting that and people love their stats to support non-sensical and off-topic opinions. This was not about me, you can try to spin it that way but for what? I had even written that disclaimer to try to not invite comments about my skills. It's not about that. I can write it again: I never claimed to be top. Judge the post by its merits. Why not -- think instead of just banter and grandstand.

 

It's light hearted -- if you need this detour to consider, I am also a game dev and know what people do to make things work. Do you understand that when people sell you stuff, they sell you stuff? And with entertainment it's really just the pitch itself people buy or don't (or stop coming back to). There is no 'thing' just the light and noise. I co-incidentally happen to know how it feels to look from the inside out (to the ever demanding players). You have stats, you have goals to meet. Marketing asks you to build stuff in. There is no discussion. You have a real problem at hand (ultimately optimizing, avg time people stay * avg money they spend / time / cost of new player) that you make A/B tests to tackle. For players, it's always going to be a game, sometimes they feel it's their home, but 'really' it is a money optimizing business and there is nothing wrong with that. Gave us this beauty of a game. Calling thoughts about what the goings on might be under the hood 'conspiracy' and thinking that's a refute ... well. To each their own. It really doesn't hold water and it's not interesting either. Thinking about what if, though, is fun. Thinking about how to fix what doesn't work yet, is. So why not do that! Any response on-topic then? :) 

 

If you look closer, it's not about whether Karma is used this way now or not, I propose it should be used this way. If anyone is interested, check out game theory, it's super fun, too. It's also what is being used on you every day by facebook, google, youtube, you name them. Personally I don't think it's cool, it's just not a 'conspiracy' either. It's just how they work. You feel WG using it too is far fetched? It must be ca. a billion dollar company now. 4000 employees. They totally might not, but they very much more likely do maximize player time with the same religious zeal that YouTube maximizes view time. You'd expect for people to be employed exclusively for that. Nothing about all this is conspiracy.

 

That you and I would never know if Karma feeds into RNG is not really a conspiracy either, but how business works. If WG felt this is how you could tackle the pervasive trolling in the games, good on them. WG is not obliged to tell you how the game works, they will guard some secrets to make sure it can't be broken. They will keep some others to not break the illusion. If they feel using Karma only works when people think it doesn't matter, then by definition you will not be told. Believe me, it would be a super benign secret sauce element of play. What you don't want is for the game company to make stuff harder for you if you ever paid them money etc. You think that's a conspiracy because -- it would be unfair or something? But again, I was just wondering.

 

With the streaks that gave me the idea, I listed the other possible causes for a reason. I think it would be more interesting if it really was just tiredness (sic). I used to think so but if it is not I'd love to know. Really as part of a learning, too, meta. We will not know. But I'd be very curious to know if others see these streaks as pronounced as I do, and what they think the reasons are. And if -- as well may be -- no-one ever felt the Karma value influences your 'luck' in-game. I do understand well what placebo effect and self-fulfilling prophecies are. We use this in game design. I am talking about what's left after correcting for all that. And sure, if someone had an opinion about the proposed Karma mechanism (maybe, why not, after reading up on game theory and refuting it logically - imagine) I'd feel writing the post made sense.

Thanks!

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2 hours ago, Sturmsee said:

f you do look up my stats and feel a temptation to comment how bad they are, let me pre-empt this: they accumulate all of my newbie games. They do not necessarily reflect how I play today. That’s the nature of statistics. I do have losing streaks. This whole post is about that. I would never claim I am a top player. I am solid 2nd league.

no you're not. Your problem lies entirely in a stark refusal to accept the reality of how bad you are... and jeeez louise, it's actually impressive... 31% winrate in the Z52? How does one even...

R2ZavSa.png

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19 minutes ago, Sturmsee said:

But I'd be very curious to know if others see these streaks as pronounced as I do, and what they think the reasons are.

RNG

Spoiler

That is what random numbers look like (50/50 chance):


2	2	2	2	2
1	1	1	2	2
2	1	2	2	1
1	2	2	2	1
1	1	1	1	2
1	2	2	1	2
2	1	2	1	1
1	2	2	1	2
2	1	2	1	2
1	1	2	1	2
2	2	2	1	2
1	1	1	1	1
2	1	1	2	2
1	2	1	2	1
1	1	1	1	1
2	2	1	2	1
2	1	1	2	2
2	1	1	1	1
1	2	2	1	1
2	1	2	2	1

 

Teams are random.

Sometimes you can carry their butts, sometimes you potato and you need carrying and sometimes you break your back carrying a huge sack of potatos and still lose.

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24 minutes ago, Sturmsee said:

Love the arrogance :D 

 

"there's no reason to assume you will improve"

Lets quote the whole paragraph and please show me where the arrogance is:

1 hour ago, loppantorkel said:

Edit: You've got similar winrates in Z-46 for Randoms and Ranked. Considering you may meet better players in higher ranks, there's no reason to assume you will improve your winrate from Random games or climb the ranks much further. 

Have you considered all possibilities for why the battles go as they do and why people complain in chat, before coming up with these theories?

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Oh by the way -- so among other things I programmed 3D graphics of a game engine of an MMO etc -- I think what really started to make me wonder about WoWs experience enhancement were the amount of incredibly near misses of torps on your own ship. Good suspense, right?

 

As well as those shots where you can tell, this is the one that finishes you, no matter how you turn. You don't have that? Honest? It's how our brain works, right, but then there are anecdotal stats. Do you know what I mean? You think one must not even communicate thoughts like this, because ... because what again? 

The reality very likely is that the 'Ocean' is so big and your projectiles so small that you would never ever hit anything aiming visually -- it's not the way it worked in reality, IOWA had 70 people working a mechanical computer for this we learn in the great WG documentary -- nothing would ever hit if WG wasn't be painting with a very big brush and lets torpedos and ships, in their math model, be like super big, so they have any chance to meet each other. This is not pure speculation, I did the 3D math for this type game, even for torpedoes, too. And WG goes to great lengths to explain how they actually find if you hit or not.

 

Then there is the latency. At what point do you think you die? Can we agree it is before your client tells you/visualizes so? Did you observe how sometimes ships get health deducted before the shot hits? This stuff is an art. You have three parties involved, two clients and the server. The server must be where the truth is because otherwise people could cheat (unless TEE is available like in consoles). The server usually knows that you are dead before it plays out on your screen. It likely rolls the dice before it tells your client. It's tenths of seconds we are talking, enough for the eye to see (1/2 of a tenth asynchronicity is discernible with the naked eye). In all network action games worth their salt, the visualization trails the facts to allow smoother optics that gloss over the hic ups of the network. It's like a slightly delayed live TV broadcast. The challenge for the programmers of course is that you are free to move until the last moment. Thankfully, the delays in how ships work in WoWs make this a whole lot easier. 

 

This is why, on a fast DD, it is well possible that this shot that is coming in you may be right to 'sense', somehow, will be deadly, because the devs need to fake it so that it follows your move, ever so subtle and hits you. From my experience I think it's likely that they have to 'fake it' this way.

 

I can, if there was interest, elaborate how different ways to let client and server collaborate result into less trailing of the visuals. And I do not know if WG has trail-blazed the way forward in this regard in the gaming industry and does it all completely different, e.g. using crypto-signed data, peer to peer connections between clients etc. So all I described above might not be true for WoWs and my impression about shots and torpedoes might just be that: an impression and wrong. But a conspiracy, er, well, no.

 

So regarding torps: I, personally, do think there is high likeliness that WoWs makes torpedo evasion look more close than it often is, to maximize suspense. As a complement to the hole game engine making hits much more likely than they actually are, in the first place. In other words, they HAVE to 'cheat' (we do call it that) to make a torp ever hit anything. But the same way they can also make it closely miss you, presumably to reward your effort. As a human being, what's better than evading a near miss. As a game designer I'd say wow, good on them, well done. I would not enjoy the game any less.

 

I do not look for thoughts like this, they come based on the experience I have in my profession and I do not know or could claim that they are true. I thought it would be fun marveling about whether it is in fact this way and hearing other people's honest impression before being too cool to walk.

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  • torp lines do not change
  • you can still connect with a torpedo that would be a close miss, if you move your rudder in the wrong direction in time
  • WG does not need to fake that, watch torpedo beats with Yuro, some are just really good at this

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5 minutes ago, loppantorkel said:

Lets quote the whole paragraph and please show me where the arrogance is:

Have you considered all possibilities for why the battles go as they do and why people complain in chat, before coming up with these theories?

 

Arrogance is: "no reason to assume you will improve your winrate from Random games"

 

Ofc they go up, ofc you get better. Ofc it's slow given the numbers. What does that matter? It was not about that. And yes co-incedentally I am the type that considers all angles impartially and with rigor. If it hadn't transpired. I know it's daring to protest stats. I can effort to do so because, can I say it, I am actually good at math and like it, and earn money from writing optimized 3D matrix math from scratch. I can go, look and numbers and intuit if they make sense. It does not mean they don't but I know where to dig for errors. And of course the first question is 'do you just try to talk yourself out of being incredibly bad at WoWs?' -- relatively speaking it's not actually that dreadful a question though, one manages to ask it. It is surprising to find how many people think otherwise in their hearts.

 

There was another thread where I asked what a 31% winrate in random even means if you do the math. Not even a ship that was AFK every single game in 12 ship-aside random battles would pull the chances of its team down to 31% avg because player skills are so uneven. I thought it's obvious that there are other factors, and that it might be worth asking which that might be, but I realize that was asking a bit much. Personally I still think the Z stats are off, and that it may count for a radar ship in MM skews the numbers. So the interesting next question is, did you, dear reader – honestly – find that Zs are a curse for your team when they show up? Just as a starting point to explore. Zs are not that popular. Could have many different reasons for sure.

 

it's obvious that people try to use those stats to shoot down very unrelated arguments with the plausibility argument it was all just to overcome how bad one is at WoWs. Let me say that again, third time, I am not good at it, I did not claim that either. I am meandering between rank 11 and 10. What more needs to be said about that, it's pretty clear I think. I start to wonder what that obsession is to reflexively answer with 'but *you* are *really* bad at WoWs.'

 

Looking forward to any on-topic response! :D

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8 minutes ago, ColonelPete said:
  • WG does not need to fake that, watch torpedo beats with Yuro, some are just really good at this

I tried to explain that there is virtually no way to 'not fake' this because of the way that a game has to be controlled by the server to avoid cheats, unless you have hardware based trusted enclaves as in a console. The server very likely knows you are dead, before you do but the better your ping is, the less this will matter.

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51 minutes ago, Tyrendian89 said:

 Your problem lies entirely in a stark refusal to accept the reality of how bad you are...

This is really off-topic, you realize that? It's also ad-personam, really bad style to twist threads, you don't know that?

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51 minutes ago, Tyrendian89 said:

 Your problem lies entirely in a stark refusal to accept the reality of how bad you are...

This is really off-topic, you realize that? It's also ad-personam, really bad style to twist threads, you don't know that?

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1 hour ago, Sturmsee said:

That you and I would never know if Karma feeds into RNG is not really a conspiracy either, but how business works.

 

Except we do know via simple comparison.

This

YwmhIAa.png

 

is my current karma, which I believe is the highest I've seen so far on the entire forum. Yet I do not win any more matches than similarly or even more skilled players across all classes, which I should according to this laughable theory, thus easily disproving such a claim.

 

And no, karma should not be used to influence anything gameplay related. How you gain or lose it is far too arbitrary.

 

3 minutes ago, Sturmsee said:

This is really off-topic, you realize that?

 

Except you've made your stats a discussion subject in your very opening post. Especially with this laughable claim:

3 hours ago, Sturmsee said:

If you do look up my stats and feel a temptation to comment how bad they are, let me pre-empt this: they accumulate all of my newbie games. They do not necessarily reflect how I play today. That’s the nature of statistics. I do have losing streaks. This whole post is about that. I would never claim I am a top player. I am solid 2nd league.

 

So allow me to make an on-topic statement. You're not 2nd league. You're FAR below even coop bots in performance. We can filter for recent stats and you have NOT improved in any way, shape or form. In fact you have arguably gotten way worse. Stop blaming anything but yourself for your incredibly poor performance.

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12 minutes ago, Sturmsee said:

I tried to explain that there is virtually no way to 'not fake' this because of the way that a game has to be controlled by the server to avoid cheats, unless you have hardware based trusted enclaves as in a console. The server very likely knows you are dead, before you do but the better your ping is, the less this will matter.

That is not what I meant. It is obvious that the server knows you are dead sooner than you in a server based game. But that has nothing to with faking.

 

The results of some actions (torpedo evasion) can be changed at the last second. The server cannot MAKE you evade.

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