Proof of WG tampering odds.

[Grandorf]

[Youshanai]

Oh my, shockingly revealing.

Cover it up quick!

You shouldn't buy lottery tickets

[loppantorkel]

Wth is this

[MrWastee]

obviously nothing proofly proven....

[ollonborre]

I don't get it, you are 1 duplicate away from completing the entire collection? OH the horror?

[gopher31]

I assume you know that you have enough duplicates to complete the set?

[gopher31]

Isn’t it 4 duplicates to buy one of your choice?

[Grandorf]

I know you are fanboys but as you know they desperately want

to sell you crates.

This is the closest you can get. 5 duplicates gives 1 item.

 

This is beyond any non rigged lottery. Do the math.

[KS1975]

What's your problem?

You get these item with the daily crates, so what?

[AbsoluteCornflakes]

With 13/16 collected, you have 81.25% chance to receive a duplicate and only 18.75% to get one of the missing items. What exactly is rigged here? Do you even math yourself?

[Kartoffelmos]

4 hours ago, gopher31 said:

Isn’t it 4 duplicates to buy one of your choice?

 

It is 5.

 

As for the topic itself, please roll a dice and create a forum post whenever you have rolled five sides and cannot get the last one on your next X attempts.

 

4 hours ago, Grandorf said:

This is beyond any non rigged lottery. Do the math.

 

Sure.

The probability of not getting one of the 3 remaining items in one drop is 81,25 %. The probability of repeating that 13 times is 5,46 %. Rigging confirmed, I guess? 

EDIT: Corrected a typo.

[MrWastee]

[Klopirat]

Vor 8 Minuten, Grandorf sagte:

Do the math.

same to you...

 

Vor 9 Minuten, Grandorf sagte:

This is the closest you can get. 5 duplicates gives 1 item.

- you can get those items in the daily containers

- next week should come another stage with several air supply containers to earn...

[loppantorkel]

10 minutes ago, Grandorf said:

I know you are fanboys but as you know they desperately want

to sell you crates.

This is the closest you can get. 5 duplicates gives 1 item.

 

This is beyond any non rigged lottery. Do the math.

Don't listen to them, I'm sure they're in on it

[AmiralPotato]

21 minutes ago, Grandorf said:

This is beyond any non rigged lottery. Do the math.

I would suggest staying very far away from lottery and math in general ;-)

[Skurfa]

I’ve actually tried it... but only once.

 

But I hate all the rng included in buying boxes and so forth.

[Miragetank90]

[Aotearas]

2 hours ago, Grandorf said:

I know you are fanboys but as you know they desperately want

to sell you crates.

This is the closest you can get. 5 duplicates gives 1 item.

 

This is beyond any non rigged lottery. Do the math.

 

You do know you can get collectibles from your normal daily crates, right?

[Beastofwar]

3 hours ago, Grandorf said:

This is beyond any non rigged lottery. Do the math.

 

If it was a lottery there would be rules to ensure fair play.....it is just a rigged gambling game with programmed variables only WG knows.

 

That said i got a UK BB out of 13.95 euro's worth of boxes - because i could not wait for that T6 UK CV - while that ship costs some 36 euro's in the shop.

 

But that might just be such a programmed variable because  WG detects i never buy boxes and wants to encourage me it's woth it and buy more...

 

And indeed 5 duplicates make 1 original. I always used that and have failed completing only 1 collection, and the rewards were not worth it anyway.

[Kysmet]

The collection is easy to finish. o_O

[eliastion]

3 hours ago, AmiralPotato said:

I would suggest staying very far away from lottery and math in general ;-)

I'm not sure about lotteries, but he clearly stays very far from math in general already, no need to encourage him any further

[Grandorf]

Yes fanboys, I will get the final one today. 

Looking at other opening 20-44 crates you can 

obviously see its skeewed. Youtube and Reddit 

is full of them.

 

By the way. Its more than math when it comes to 

probability and none of you or me can precisely 

calculate it.

 

[loppantorkel]

11 minutes ago, Grandorf said:

Yes fanboys, I will get the final one today. 

Looking at other opening 20-44 crates you can 

obviously see its skeewed. Youtube and Reddit 

is full of them.

 

By the way. Its more than math when it comes to 

probability and none of you or me can precisely 

calculate it.

 

Of course Too much complemicated for us.

[Kartoffelmos]

13 minutes ago, Grandorf said:

Yes fanboys, I will get the final one today. 

Looking at other opening 20-44 crates you can 

obviously see its skeewed. Youtube and Reddit 

is full of them.

 

By the way. Its more than math when it comes to 

probability and none of you or me can precisely 

calculate it.

 

You should see a doctor. The tinfoil hat that you are wearing seems to have poisoned your body. Other than that, statistics is a field within mathematics so there literally cannot be "more than math" to it.

Feel free to also point out what WG gain by rigging a purely cosmetic collection which isn't time-limited and which will automatically be completed if you have remembered to check the "collecting"-option.

[eliastion]

2 minutes ago, Grandorf said:

Yes fanboys, I will get the final one today. 

Looking at other opening 20-44 crates you can 

obviously see its skeewed. Youtube and Reddit 

is full of them.

 

By the way. Its more than math when it comes to 

probability and none of you or me can precisely 

calculate it.

 

I don't feel like doing the real math so I'll just show how misguided you are with a very simplified calculation.

 

Let's assume that you were INCREDIBLY lucky and didn't have a single duplicate in your first 13 draws. That puts you at 13/16 collected and 0 duplicates.

What would then be the chance of ending up in your current situation? You'd need 14 straight duplicates. The chance of getting a duplicate while having 13 items collected out of 16-item collection is 13/16. The chance of drawing 14 duplicates in a row is (13/16)^14. This equals a bit above 5.46%

That's more that 1/20. On average more than one out of every 20 players with 13 items already collected would then get 14+ duplicates straight if they kept collecting without exchanging anything.

 

But sure. It's got to be rigged that you got 14 duplicates over the whole course of gathering the collection, no other option

 

TL;DR: You have no idea how probability works, that's why you spout nonsense and make up conspiracy theories about WG cheating you out of your collection items to force you into buying containers.