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wilkatis_LV

"3 battles bottom tier = 4th guaranteed top tier" rule

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This one's pretty popular, many people seem to believe it to be true. However - is it really, or is it just a "fingers crossed I hope so" fairy tale? :cap_yes:

 

I'll put most of this stuff under "spoiler" to save space

 

I, for no particular reason, have been screenshoting every single random battles MM I play since the last November (patch 0.6.13), so I just decided to go over it and check for any actual proof that this rule would exist.

To make it easier I chose the 2 "these always get shafted" tiers - tier 5 and 8. Easier to see it if you actually are bottom tier more than half of the games you play. Could have picked 9 aswell, but ehh, too many battles to go through

Ships range from (as an example) NC which I haven't played in months, to Kamikaze which has been played all over the place, to Bretagne which was played just about a week ago

 

Basic "rules" of how it's supposed to work:

  • Affects single ship individually - 3 games in ship A do no affect the 4th one being played in B, as that's the 1st game for B in the streak
  • After 3 consecutive games where you are bottom tier you are supposed to get a guaranteed top tier game

 

Sample size:

Spoiler

 

  • Tier 5 - 90 battles (70 with carriers excluded as they can't see +2 tiers without divisioning)
    • Kamikaze R - 47
    • Kirishima - 4 (too few for a chain)
    • Omaha - 7 (might see something, but probably too few)
    • Revolution - 1 (too few)
    • Bretagne - 11
    • Zuiho - 18
    • Bogue - 2 (too few)

 

  • Tier 8 - 212 games
    • Amagi - 55
    • Bismarck - 18
    • Atago - 3 (too few)
    • NC - 36
    • Edinburgh - 34
    • Kii - 2 (too few)
    • Hsienyang - 31
    • Kagero - 1 (too few)
    • Charles Baguette - 6 (probably too few)
    • Shokaku - 26


 

 

Results (chains of 3 or more games of the same battle tier in a row):

Spoiler
  • 5 bottom tier (+2 MM):
    • 1x Bretagne
    • 1x NC

 

  • 4 bottom tier (+2 MM):
    • 1x Bretagne
    • 2x Amagi
    • 1x Bismarck
    • 1x Hsienyang

 

  • 3 bottom tier (+2 MM)
    • 2x Kamikaze R
    • 1x Omaha
    • 4x Amagi
    • 1x Bismarck
    • 2x NC
    • 1x Edinburgh
    • 1x Hsienyang
    • 2x Shokaku

 

  • 3 mid tier (+1MM)
    • 2x Amagi

 

  • 3 top tier (-2 MM)
    • 1x NC

 

  • 4 top tier (-2 MM)
    • 1x Shokaku

 

  • 4 top tier (-1 MM)
    • 1x Zuiho
  • 7 top tier (-1 MM)
    • 1x Zuiho

 

That same previous tab, just in img format:

Spoiler

Click on the longer ones to make them bigger, if you want to see what's there

 

AZw1wiu.png

JnoYLOn.png

PRsD99c.png

TLzXOtO.png

ti1wyOb.png

PsaPjYm.png

 

ibZ5Mqf.png

C9r9YID.png

aSDCiqs.png

DQDoKBQ.png

MKHHWFI.png

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kRKUMkh.png

jeTIBVo.png

yIjKGf1.png

x8kjGVS.png

 

About battle tier % (will need this for the "conclusion") (also from now on t5 CVs get pretty much just ignored bcuz 1) special MM and 2) stupidly lucky MM on Zuiho)

Spoiler

Tier 5 - 70 battles

  • Top tier - 20 (28.6%)
  • Mid tier - 14 (20%)
  • Bottom tier - 36 (51.4%)

 

Tier 8 - 212 battles

  • Top tier - 59 (27.8%)
  • Mid tier - 39 (18.4%)
  • Bottom tier - 114 (53.8%)

 

Sidenote - srsly, come the :etc_swear: on, both of those have been bottom tier MORE THAN HALF of those games :fish_palm:

 

With that part done lets look at the other one - after a series (3+) of bottom tier games, are you guaranteed a top tier game?

Spoiler

In the tier 5 bracket there are 5 cases (refer to stuff higher up), of whom 1 hasn't been "ended" (a.k.a. no game played after it) thus 4 usable.

Tiers following these strikes are 6 / 6 / 6 / 5 with the average of 5.75

 

In the tier 8 bracket there are 16 cases (refer to stuff higher up)

Tiers following these strikes are 8 / 9 / 9 / 8 / 8 / 8 / 9 / 8 / 9 / 8 / 8 / 9 / 8 / 9 / 9 / 8 with the average of 8.44

 

Note that 5.5 and 8.5 would mean perfect 50/50 split between mid and top tier games, while 5.0 and 8.0 would mean a guaranteed top tier match

 

I think that's about it, so here's the conclusion:

Spoiler

It's nothing more than a myth.

After playing 3 games in the same "battle tier" you simply are more than likely (but not guaranteed) to see some other tier. Because of the high bottom tier game % you always are more likely to land on one of those than a mid / top tier game, but that can go on only for so long before eventually being broken by the chance to get a "non-bottom tier" game, same as this would work in the exact opposite way - after 2...4 top + mid tier games in a row you'd expect to see a bottom tier game.

So that is nothing more than a simple chance.

 

And then is it going to be you top tier? No.

As you can see in both cases the average battle tier of the following game was somewhere in the middle not on the lowest borderline. I'd even go as far as to say that over a larger samplesize the exact value would get closer and closer to the ratio you have between the number of top and mid tier games, which in both cases seems to be close to 60% (tier 5 @ 58.8% and tier 8 @ 60.2%) thus 5.4 and 8.4 respectively.

Again - nothing more than a simple chance.

 

Also this seems fitting:

mythbusted_cropped.jpg

 

If anyone wants to check all of this to see if I have made a mistake - give me a decent file sharing website and I can send you all 302 screenshots + the Excel file :Smile_trollface:

  • Cool 5

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Have you ever considered that the rule can potentially get waived if someone is in queue for too long just like mirroring?

 

Though regardless, without an official statement we can only share our experiences and draw conclusions from that which is insufficient to prove anything.

  • Cool 1

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11 minutes ago, El2aZeR said:

Have you ever considered that the rule can potentially get waived if someone is in queue for too long just like mirroring?

 

Though regardless, without an official statement we can only share our experiences and draw conclusions from that which is insufficient to prove anything.

I did consider it, but it seems to be nothing outside of a simple chance

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One thing i found out, my example being Kamikaze, if i loose a match next game i get top tier, if i win a match, next game im bottom tier, i get that consistently. :cap_yes:

Again, it's just my observation. :Smile_honoring:

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12 minutes ago, Major_Damage225 said:

One thing i found out, my example being Kamikaze, if i loose a match next game i get top tier, if i win a match, next game im bottom tier, i get that consistently. :cap_yes:

Pretty sure that's not true for me, going by the gut feeling of my memory.

 

I've mentioned it before, but I think that for every game you're bottom tier, your chance to get top tier should rise, and vice versa. It's better for balancing than a straight out guarantee, and less abusable.

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17 hours ago, Major_Damage225 said:

One thing i found out, my example being Kamikaze, if i loose a match next game i get top tier, if i win a match, next game im bottom tier, i get that consistently. :cap_yes:

Again, it's just my observation. :Smile_honoring:

I definitely don't get that at any tier I play (3 -8) 

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it would be interesting to expand this with further info. were those games played with same ship in a row, or with some other ship inbetween?

if you played shokaku 3 times and got bottom tiered, then switched to montana (or any other ship in which you were top tier), then again to shokaku your data may be useless.

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49 minutes ago, robihr said:

it would be interesting to expand this with further info. were those games played with same ship in a row, or with some other ship inbetween?

if you played shokaku 3 times and got bottom tiered, then switched to montana (or any other ship in which you were top tier), then again to shokaku your data may be useless.

Bretagne being the recent one is the only one where I can say that she was played in long streaks without picking other ships. While not always, mostly the ship I play would vary for at least every 2nd...3rd game.

Similarly for Zuiho - I played all those games in a row, but somewhere in the middle I might have played another ship for a game or two

 

And it's always mentioned as "affects single ship" as in my 3 bottom tier games in Shokaku don't guarantee me a top tier game in Kamikaze. 4th game in Shokaku is supposed to be the top tier one

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1 hour ago, wilkatis_LV said:

Bretagne being the recent one is the only one where I can say that she was played in long streaks without picking other ships. While not always, mostly the ship I play would vary for at least every 2nd...3rd game.

Similarly for Zuiho - I played all those games in a row, but somewhere in the middle I might have played another ship for a game or two

 

And it's always mentioned as "affects single ship" as in my 3 bottom tier games in Shokaku don't guarantee me a top tier game in Kamikaze. 4th game in Shokaku is supposed to be the top tier one

depends on programming logic. there is vast difference between 3 bottom tier MM per one ship guarantees top tier and 3 bottom tier MM per account guarantees top tier. then further it could be reset daily cause of server restart or maybe per active session.

 

most pure evidence of that this rule doesnt exist would be if you managed to get 4 bottom tier MM on same ship in one session. cause otherwise other things could interfere with this rule.

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31 minutes ago, robihr said:

there is vast difference between 3 bottom tier MM per one ship guarantees top tier and 3 bottom tier MM per account guarantees top tier.

Still would be a no. I rarely play tier 10, and still whatever the tier is just putting them in a row after 3 bottom tiers there's no guarantee for a to tier game. That's going outside of the "commonly accepted" rules, but is still a no.

 

It's not uncommon to have a day or two in a row where you get nothing but bottom tier games, same way as some day you just get lucky and sit bottom tier the whole time.

 

Again - nothing outside the realm of simple "chance"

 

31 minutes ago, robihr said:

most pure evidence of that this rule doesnt exist would be if you managed to get 4 bottom tier MM on same ship in one session

Bretagne was played over 2 sessions:

 

coUTnn1.png

 

So in the 2nd session there is some space where I could have played something else (or I might have been alt-tabbed), but not in the 1st run of 5. Gong by date - 29th June, so about 1-and-a-half weeks ago, pretty fresh. Times in CEST+1, for a common-er reference

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To add to the comment above, just had the thought that "one session, but were there games in between?" can be seen through replays:

 

gvVtpFi.png

 

Those are 1st 13 replays of this patch - 1st session with an operation followed by 5 Bretagne games (all bottom tier), 2nd session of the other 6 Bretagne games (2 top, then 4 bottom), next game played in the 3rd session ending that chain.

 

Times given on files: note that MM screenshots are taken while loading in, while replay is saved after the battle ends / after you quit it - that's the difference you can see

 

So just as it was asked - these 2 comments do show that within one session, while playing just one ship (with no other ships in-between) I've got 5 and 4 bottom tier games in a row.

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This rule was for WOT, not WOWS. I'm not aware of any reason anyone should expect the rule to have carried over to WOWS in any form. WOT also had a rule of your first battle in a new tank always being top tier. These have probably been abandoned since the 3/5/7 matchmaking was made, if not a year or two earlier.

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I think this applied to Ships too. I believe they stated this back in the old days of CBT.

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