tocqueville8

It's a typo. I meant exactly one: 41 containers (I reckon, including the missions), 1% chance each. Assuming you won't run out of ships before opening all the containers (which is reasonable, given that all the containers together have a combined expected value of less than a single ship), the odds of getting k ships comes from the binomial distribution (41 k) * 0.99^(41-k) * (1-0.99)^k, where the first term is the binomial coefficient The chance of getting zero ships is (41 0) * 0.99^41 * 0.01^0 = 1 * 0.99^41 * 1 = 66%. Meaning the chance of getting at least one is 34% The chance of getting exactly one is (41 1) * 0.99^40 * 0.01 = 27% The chance of getting exactly two is (41 2) * 0.99^39 * 0.01^2 = 41*40/2 * 0.99^39 * 0.01^2 = 5.5% (my bad, I wrote 5%) The chance of getting exactly three is (41 3) * 0.99^38 * 0.01^3 = 41*40*39/6 * 0.99^38 * 0.01^3 = 0.7% Etc.

Thing is, whatever one trades away might come back later from a Santa crate or a SC, especially mid-tier stuff

Doesn't look like it. The permacamos (and Dasha) come right out of the bundles; the missions are for a few one-use camos and a couple of extra containers.

Hard to say for the dubs: if you buy the first 9 bundles, for about 120 Euros, you'll get 45 premium containers for an expected 4-5 premium French ships plus, plus boosters and such the JB in the 10th is basically at the standard Armory price for a Tier 9 at an average price (buying all the bundles) of 817 dubs, each with 10% chance of a ship, the premium containers have a decent price-per-expected-ship-drop: the 5 ships in the pool (De Grasse, Béarn, Gascogne, Toulon and Terrible) cost an average of 8680 dubs. And again, that's discounting the value of the alternative drops, which is not insignificant (expect 45k coal and 45 booster per type). if you have some of the ships already, things might get better or worse: I wouldn't buy all the bundles, not in one gulp anyway, if I had even just one, given I'd be likely to drain the pool and get the compensation, which is just coal. On the other hand, it might reasonable to buy a few if I had just the Béarn and De Grasse, for instance overall, the whole package has a reasonable price (close to its Armory value, with no coupons)...assuming you have none of the ships already...and assuming you want a bunch of French premiums. However, there's no real discount: the first bundles are the most expensive for their drops, to the point of exceeding the Armory prices...unless you count the coal and boosters, which however are F2P. As for the credits, I got all the thingies without a second thought: the permacamos are nice, a free Dasha (had none of them yet ), and a total of 41 standard containers (I think? once I've done all the missions, which are easy). Apparently that's a 27% chance of getting at least one premium ship, 5% of getting two. Not too bad for a modest pile of credits, imho. Hopefully my math is okay, do point out any mistakes

I mostly I agree: with BBs and cruisers, I can "set up the fight" against them, be that in terms of torping them, farming them from smoke, kiting them or trying to crossfire them (I'm mainly considering the perspective of a surface combatant) with subs and DDs, it's basically a lottery whether they're going to attack from one side of the cap or another, be paired or split, etc. Also, which kind of DD is going to be on my cap changes more things than which kind of BB will. That makes it less manageable/predictable. Not to mention that, when I'm in a BB, I'll often be too late (especially since I'll spawn farther back) to help a particularly suicidal DD/sub at least even the fight, which is just frustrating finally, and this might be a bit vain of me, it's basically impossible to move one's damage records in a mm full of DDs and subs. Not saying that's my main aim while playing, but it would be nice once in a while

I dunno about "fastest", but one of the most fun is the Agincourt in Randoms. The AP is crap, so you'd mostly spam HE anyway: mid-tier cruisers have vulnerable engines/rudders and lots of torpedo launchers, plus the DDs get close to launch torps, and you'll get more ribbons from the secondaries...

My 2 cents:

Our Buffalo wouldn't push a low-hp DoY, and we lost on points

A nice Salem push in Ranked the other day Best game so far (6 in total) in the Jäger. Frankly, I'm not a fan: the tradeoffs from the Öster are just not worth it imho. For one, the torps hit like wet noodles: For another, she really struggles to defend herself: low hp, no smoke, low DPM, poor traverse, garbage AA. Then again, SLM assured me she's "one of the best torpedoboats in the game" (he played her...four times!), so I should've known something was amiss...

I posted my best-performing ones above. Frankly, though, my most-played is Colbert, by far. Followed by Salem, Ohio, Napoli, Alaska, Shikishima, Incomparable, Smaland, GK, etc.

Tier 5: Marblehead, I guess Tier 6: Queen Elizabeth Tier 7: Mahan and Abruzzi Tier 8: Kaga Tier 9: Mogador and Kitakaze Tier 10: Vampire 2 and Venezia

Why can't Operations count towards the Jäger missions? Coop and Asymmetricals do...

I just edited to my post before seeing your reply: it should be 33%.

Not sure about that. Putting the first unicum div (U1) in the left team without loss of generality, we have 3 distinct outcomes: U1+U2 vs P U1+P vs U2 U1 vs U2+P That suggests a 33% chance of both unicum divs on the same side. It wouldn't be 50%, because the MM might not assign U1 to a team and then, 50-50, U2 to the same one: it might (with what odds?) assign the potato (P) div with U1 first (with 50% odds), at which point U2 would have to be on the other team by default. Then the odds of U1+U2 vs P would be 25% only. One could generalize: you assign U1 to a team first, then you decide (50-50) which of the other two divs to assign next, without balancing the number of divs for now (you have a third one "in reserve"), and finally you assign the third one with that condition, the odds seem to be: 3/8 for U1+P vs U2 3/8 for U1+U2 vs P 2/8 for U1 vs U2+P, which is more favorable to both unicum divs on the same side, though still not quite 50%. Generalize further, and allow the MM to pick (with 33% odds) which div to assign first, then which one to assign second (50%), then assign the last one. You basically take those 3/8, 3/8 and 2/8 values, multiply them by 1/3 and permutate the teams, then add equivalent combinations (e.g. U1+U2 vs P = P vs U2+U1): you'll find 33% odds of U1 and U2 being on the same team (either one). I just don't know how it works exactly. All I'm saying is that divisions, especially since they tend to be made of players of similar skill, end up skewing the teams.

Isn't it just "at least one", though? Say there are 3 divs in the queue, 2 with unicums and 1 with potatoes. The MM should prevent a 3-0 situation division-wise, but the odds of both unicum divs being on the same team should be something like 1/4, 1/3, depending on how the algorithm works

He means he's the reason the game is still free-to-play

I mean...there are simply fewer stars to align when players of similar level (very high, in this case) division together 3 at a time...

Paolo Emilio (obviously) or Colbert (speed boost and pew-pew-pew). Illinois is...fine, but she's basically just a cross of Iowa and Des Moines: not very interesting imho.

I mean...it depends. In previous auctions, 100k coal would go for about 1M FXP or 100M credits: the former I've had plenty of times (grinding for FXP ships or RB resets), the latter I've had a few times, but I could always get in a pinch by resetting more lines. 2.4M FCXP, on the other hand, I don't believe I've ever had: as soon as I had 1M, often less, I would use it to level up a captain, given there are always new lines, occasionally new nations, where I'd want an élite one eventually. I like auctions as a way to "balance the economy", certainly more than superships. I'm just surprised people had so much FCXP lying around this time, compared to credits and FXP in the past. Steel I can see, given some get a lot from CBs, which I don't play.

I have to agree. I bid 1,912,414 (all I had, basically: and it's a famous date ), thinking it'd be more than enough. The lowest winning bid translates a Tier 10 coal ship (240k or so) to over 6M cpt XP, enough to create two elite captains from scratch I guess some players just hoard it, and maybe a future auction would have a lower winning bid now that they've exhausted it...or not.

Ruggero di Lauria for steel. Kitakami for RB. That's my bet.

Tier 6-7, tbh

Of course not And the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9yHCCJhIpc

I guess the WV '44 could be good in Operations, since the speed is less of an issue.

Don't forget the Christmas snowflakes: they should give 75 steel for every Tier 8-9...