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About Ciryonde

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    Able Seaman
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  1. Ciryonde

    Confession of an ex potato

    Hello, my name is Ciryonde, and I'm a shipoholic. It took until my first ranked season before i realized parking my dd broadside against the enemy when capping in smoke is a bad idea. I still get aggravated and want to write "thanks for no support" in chat when I go into a cap and die alone because my team went the other way... Watching Jingles videos is stil my guilty pleasure. When I ended up in my first TX random battle with my Benson I was really exited to get to fight what most be the best players in the game, since it was the highest tier. I don't really feel bad about losing if I'm the top XP earner since "I did my part, the team rest of the team sucked"... It took me several hundred battles to realize that premium consumables were a thing. And then it took me several hundred more to realized you could buy them with silver.... :P :D
  2. Ciryonde

    Incomming smoke nerf?

    Oh, then to me it sounds like they are basically reintroducing dd stealth fire.... I mean, one of the big weaknesses with smoking yourself offensively as a dd today is that you can't see you targets when you are in smoke unless someone else is spotting for you. But with this implementation of smokedetection you can spot your own targets as long as they are shooting at something at all. So you can basically smoke up 8 km from any bb in game, and if the bb wants to use it's guns while your smoke is up, you can just spam it with impunity.
  3. Ciryonde

    Incomming smoke nerf?

    I've read most of the thread so if this has already been answered, I'm sorry. As far as I've understood, two ships in separate smoke screens will be able to spot each other. So assume that I'm sitting in smoke in my dd 10 km from a BB that isn't in smoke, the BB fires, but since I'm in smoke, I can't see it (since no one else is around to spot it). Then someone drops a smokescreen on the BB and it fires again so that the smoke detection mechanics kicks in, and it will have a 14 km detect through smoke. Will I all of a sudden be able to see the BB just because someone smoked it?
  4. Ciryonde

    Torpedo tactics

    There has been a lot of good tips in this thread! I'm a dd main and I would like to add my few cents about how I figure out where the enemy dds are, will probably work just as well for a bb :) I count the number of dds in the pre-battle screen or at the start of the match, in the beginning I just regarded all dds as the same, but as time went on I learnt stuff like torpedo ranges and which dds can be expected to push into torpedo range, which makes it easier to know where they might be. In domination mode: Look at the caps, if the enemy have two dds and the A and B cap is being capped/blocked really early, then you will know that the C cap is dd free. This also works later in the game, if a cap on the other side of the map is being capped and you can see the other enemy surface ships, then you know where the dd is. Look at what your own dds are doing, if you have a dd in front of you, there's a good chance it can spot the enemy dds, torps or just discourage the enemy dds from pushing into torped range at all. Also keep tabs on what happens to your dds, did it push into the cap, smoke and got sunk by torpedo attack? Expect the enemy dd to come charging to torpedo you since he/she knows that the road is open. This is why people often emphasize the importance of shooting at dds, even if they aren't a direct threat to you at the moment, since losing your dd screen will open the way for the enemy dds. This does not mean that you need to do some super team play in order to stay close to a dd, ships generally go the same way in the beginning of the match so often you naturally end up with a dd screen. Make sure "last known position" is turned on on your map. Looking at the map often is good, but it is easy to miss if a dd blipps for a second or two before smoking or disengaging. Having the last known position on will store this information for you. However, it is important to note how recently the dd was spotted: If the mark is 30 seconds old it won't have moved very far but if the dd was spotted in the beginning of the match and hasn't been seen since, then it can be anywhere. Keep an eye out for torpedoes! Well duh :) But not just the ones aimed at you but all of them, if there's a spread of torpedoes they must have come from somewhere. There are other ships than dds that can torp, but by looking at the minimap you can generally see if there is a capital ships that could have launched the torps, if not, there's a dd there. Another tip is to play ranked, random battles are by their very nature random and you can often get away with things that might not be the best of strategies :) In ranked you will get (a bit more) consistently punished for a mistake so it is easier to figure out what works and what does not work. Hope this will help you in some way :)
  5. Ciryonde

    The roflstompiness question

    Hi guys! I often hear, and I agree with it, that a lot of people feel that the game has become a bit roflstompy, when I look back at the battles I had when I started I don't really remember that happening so often. So I decided to try to find out if this is the case. My reasoning builds on the assumption that if you have an advantage, in this case, a better ship, that advantage will become more pronounced the longer the game goes on. So if battles used to be longer before, we would see good ships have a higher win rate and bad ships have a worse one than today. In order to find this out I compared the 20 ships with the all time highest historical win rates to what their win rates are the last two weeks. I used warships today to get the data. I only included ships T5 and up since I don't play enough on the lower teirs to know if the meta exists there as well. The final batch of numbers are the best ships that have more than 100k battles played total and more than 1k in the last two weeks, to get the ships that are present in most battles. So, what you would expect to find is that the bad ships would have a higher win rate today than they've had historically and the good ships a lower one. All the numbers are n the excel file included in the post. The change in win rate were: Best 20 Change +0,523% Change no Saipan +0,263% Worst 20 Change +0,487% Change No US CV +0,797% Best 20, >100k battles tot, >1k battles 2 weeks Change +0,331% Change No Saipan +0,061% Saipan is a huge outlier since it has improved it's win rate 5,5%, which is more than double the change of any other ship so it really skewes the statistics. Five of the six ships with the lowest win rate are US CVs witch kinda makes them an outlier as well. Apart from that most of the bad ships are relatively common. The reason for only looking a more common ships for the bet 20 is that there were a lot of special ships (flint, black etc) that had very few battles and very high win rates. So, what does this tell us? I don't really know. It doesn't really fit my hypothesis, but it seems that the bad ships win a bit more and the good ships have been pretty stationary. Does this indicate an roflstompier meta? Possibly, but I'm kinda interested to hear what you guys make of it? Win rate evolution.xlsx
  6. Ciryonde

    Update 0.6.3 Feedback - Bug Reports

    1. DescriptionThe guns and torpedo tubes that show the aiming direction on the little boat in the compass does not move on my fletcher.2. Reproduction stepsSelect fletcher, go into battle3. ResultThe boat in the compass (can't come up with a better name...) does not show which way you are aiming4. Expected resultThe boat should have displayed which way the guns (and tubes) are pointed5. Technical details 1. DescriptionMiss aligned buttons and text. I could not click the button to enable the smoke screen timer, had to tab my way to it and use enter. The samegoes for the "mission" tab while in queue for a battle. The hit text displayed below the countdown clock in the pre-battle screen also seem to be to far down since it is not on my screen. 2. Reproduction stepsstart the game I guess?3. Resultcan't click on the buttons or read the text4. Expected resultButtons should be clickable.5. Technical details 1. DescriptionMissing reticle in battle. The aiming circles that indicate he direction of each gun was not displayed in either zooomed out or zoomed in mode, possibly connected to the first problem described.2. Reproduction stepsSelect fletcher, go into battle3. ResultImpossible to know in what direction your guns were pointed, and if you could fire them, without looking at the actual ship animation, since the turrets were moving.4. Expected resultThe aiming circles should have been there.5. Technical details 1. DescriptionCould not open the team lineup in game.2. Reproduction stepsSelect fletcher, go into battle, press Tab. I checked my key bindings and the team lineup is bound to Tab.3. ResultTeam lineup not displayed. The mouse-pointer does however become visible.4. Expected resultFor the team lineup to be displayed.5. Technical details
  7. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    Hehe, yeah maybe, better return on investment than buying a stealth firing premium anyways
  8. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    Yes, that is the point of the entire post. Just fyi, Saying that _FTD_ should bring his/her friends in order to get lucky and win the lottery was a joke.
  9. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    That was not the intention of the post, it is merely trying to say that no-one is going to luck their way to a high WR, I added another disclaimer to point that out. Thanks for pointing out that it could be interpreted that way. Well, statistically speaking you are not supposed to win every game. I'm a dd main and I took the liberty of looking at your stats for higher tier dds. You do a decent amount of damage and have a high torpedo hit rate. However, you are below average on survival rate on every tier 8 and 9 dd you play which suggests to me that you might be playing to aggressiv, going in to score torpedo hits. You're K/D-rating also suffer because of this. I would suggest you try to play more defensive, especially in conditions where you can expect the enemy to behave unpredictably.
  10. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    It might seem frustrating at times, but on average, if the players you face are wore on weekends, you will win more. From the weekdays to the weekend, you skill is pretty similar but the influx of bad players you describe will lower the average skill of the other players. this means that your team has 11 players that are worse than the average weekday player (on average), and the opposing team has 12. This makes it so that you have a greater ability to affect the games outcome and hence a greater chance of winning. Too bad, that doesn't seem very fun. I would recommend taking a brake and trying to reset, or play couple of games in the ship you feel the strongest in. At least for me if I'm on a losing streak I get annoyed which means I make even more mistakes, similarly, if I have a really good game, I relax and get into the flow and can keep on playing well. Or you could try adjusting you tactics, if you, for instance, usually play a central role with a dd and all of a sudden the entire enemy team is sitting att the border, sniping, then you might have to adjust into a play style that would be sub optimal against better players but will counter border humping. I would also recommend editing out the names of your teammates in that screenshot, even though your are not singling any one out in particular, it is generally not looked favorably upon on the forums to post names of players and say that they play bad. Well, even if you are joking, you are on to something Don't quote me on the numbers though. A better way to say it might be "Some games aren't winnable and some aren't losable, it's what you do with the games that are undecided that makes your win rate". I think this is what LilJumpa was referring to earlier in the thread, but the point to remember is that while this affects the absolute difference between players win rates, the best will have 70% (for instance) and not 100% and the worst will have 30% instead of 0%, it does not affect the relative distribution. No player is going to get a higher win rate than deserved compared to other players because of it.
  11. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    The thing is that all players have games like this, I have had games where I scored Kraken and high caliber and yet my team has collapsed around me. In the long run this evens out. I saw a description of it which I really liked: "Everybody is going to win 30% of the games because your team carries you and everybody will lose 30% of the games because your team play horrible, it's what you do with the remaining 40% that decides your win rate". The 30% wins and loses does not have anything to do with luck, since it is the same for all players. It might feel disheartening when you have a great game and you're team just dies, but remember that in another game, at least I do it, you probably made a mistake that got you killed and then your team carried you. It evens out.
  12. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    When you get rich, remember who gave you the tip ;) Saying something about player skill is quite hard. The way you can use the table is that if you have played for instance a 1000 games and you have a win rate that is higher than 53,1% then you can say that your actual win rate probably is above 50%. To play an infinite amount of games, assuming that you don't get better and nothing else changes would be the only way to tell us exactly what your "true" win rate is. You would not end up on 50% (unless that is the actual number ) but rather the actual win rate you have in comparison to everybody else. Exactly
  13. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    @Gnirf You make some good points, determining how player skill affect win rate is hard, because it is way more inconsistent than MM or detonations. I'm not really trying to explain why certain players have a higher win rate than others, only saying that it is definitely not based on luck. Moving captains from one ship to another is something that some players do and others don't, and I would count it as skill. I updated the disclaimer.
  14. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    Yes, pretty much, I'm doing the same thing I think anyone introducing statistics would do, illustrating the basics with a relatable example. If you do an analysis that accounts for sub-group sample size, autocorrelation and player specific information that proves that win rate is luck based or that the level of error does not drop after more battles played I'd be happy to take a look at it. Just out of interest, what factors beyond skill and luck affects your win rate?
  15. Ciryonde

    Win rate and luck

    Don't rain on my parade... Actually, what took the most time was writing the post in an accesible way. For me it would have been a lot easier just to write "Since the deviation from the mean of a binomial distribution is normally distributed, for sufficiently large samples, we will see a convergence towards the mean that will eliminate the factor of luck as the sample size grows, duh..." and be done with it. But the people who would understand that do not need this explained, and the people who do need this explained would not have understood that Nah, I'm not interested in that since my model is robust enough to answer the question posed: "is win rate based on luck or skill?". Accurately modeling the effect of luck on win rate to answer that would be like using a pair of scissors to cut each individual straw in your lawn, effective, but not very efficient...