As my few above screenshots show, it is not about your play - it is about "the team". This scenario requires cooperation, and it is enough to screw one thing to lose. Most common: BB not going after Atlanta (or at least letting Aoba die), not killing Mahan/Nicholas at the start, BB not killing Mex/NY/Wyoming so broadsiding cruisers are killed or crippled - or going full single sudoku mode vs 3BB, Pensa and 2DD, blindly chasing the CV, not healing while it is possible or sitting ducks in the workshop. And so on, so forth.
Then we can add some "random" accidents, like when you are about to finish cruiser group and suddenly Alabama + cruisers + DD spawns a few km from you.
This takes 3 BBs you might not have !!!