Well, it's been awhile since my last post.
Lately I become aware of some stats collected on the warshipstats website (http://warshipstats.com/analytics/) , and decide to makesome plots of the EU data for other players.
While the data tracked only a fraction of the player base (4k out of around 30 K in EU server, most likely above average), I believe this will give some picture about the overall condition of the game.
1. Battles per tier
|tier||battle %||cumulative %|
As can be seen, the vast majority of the battles are concentrated in ships of tier 1 - 6, which collectively represents 80% of the battles going in the server. As the ship tier goes up, the number of battles goes down; players doing battle in his/her tier 10 ship in fact only represents 1.2% of the total battles. This number might go up as the game ages and more people obtain tier 10 ships, but it is likely that this number stays constant in the medium term. It also means that player in tier 10 ships are more likely to get unbalanced MM (one way or the other) outside of the peak hours. Players of high tier carriers might need to take special note, since the change in MM due next patch might lead to extremely long waiting time .
2. General conclusions from ships of all tier
The figure above are plots of average xp and winrate of all ships vs damage and ship kills. It can be observed that:
1. Xp/ battle can be virtually considered as a linear function of damage done (r2 = 0.95)
2. Winrate is influenced by both ship kills and damage done, but the influence of kills seems to be slightly higher.
In short, go for the damage to get more xp during grinding, and go for kills to ensure victory.
This finding is similar to world of tanks; and what about supporting activities, such as capping and killing planes?
As can be seen, it is not clear that killing planes lead to more xp or victories. The majority of the ships kill too few planes to show any clear trends, except for few outliers that show a slight trend towards increasing xp and wr. On closer observation, these ships are high tier battleships and carriers, which aside from having strong AA also have enormous punch to kill other ships. It is also interesting to observe that the ship that kill the most planes have mediocre xp and win rate compared to the top performing ones; this ship is Lexington, widely considered as the most underpowered CV in the current lineup. In short, killing airplanes does not pay much in terms of xp and winrates.
The same can be said with capping and decapping, which do not lead to clear trends in terms of wr. Observation of the outliers show that in fact the ship with most capping point on average have modest wr compared to its peers. This ship is Shimakaze, and it underscores that decent speed and camo do not lead to enough victory by capping. On the other hand, the best decapper in the game have a slightly higher wr; these ships are american cruisers (st. louis and des moines) with a high dpm guns that can shotgun everything in a cap. This discussion is somewhat academic, since the average decap point of the ships is 2 x higher than the average cap rate of the best capper (8 vs 4 points). In short, capping does not work well due to the ease b which decapping is done, even for the best destroyers.
3. Evaluation of ship lines between tier 1 - 10
The figure above plots the average xp, damage, and winrate of every ship divided per tier and line. Note that at high tiers, very few players actually own the ship (less than 50), and some anomalies might results (due to player skill above average, platooning, etc.). It can be observed that:
1. The plot of average xp and damage looks similar, which is not surprising considering that the correlation of the two is very high.
2. At tier 4 - 8, The IJN CV line clearly overperforms in terms of xp, damage, and winrate compared to its peers at the same tier. Thus, the planned nerf on the line seems to be justified.This performance is unmatched until tier 9 - 10, where the USN CV line takes the lead. Either way, the performance of both CVs at tier 9 - 10 surpasses other ship classes.
3. At tier 6 -8, The IJN and the USN destroyer lines enters the "valley of death", where little to no improvement can be expected until tier 9 is reached. In any case, the performance of the DDs is far below its contemporaries at all metrics. Compared to its CV peers, the DD get around 60 - 70% less average xp and damage; the winrate is equally abysmal, plunging down starting from tier 6 onwards. In fact , both Shimakaze and Gearing are top contenders for the worst performing ship in terms of winrate at tier 10, with winrate of 48.6% and 46.5% respectively.
4. Despite the complaints from some BB skippers, the BB is a very solid line, only second to CVs in terms of xp, damage, and winrates. The large HP pool, large alpha gun, and HP recovery ability still handles the CA endless HE spam, occasional torp from the DD, and the CV TBs pretty well. At tier 10, the Yamato and the Montana performs equally well in terms of xp, damage, and winrate, making both equally worthwhile to own. On the other hand, several lemons can be observed on both lines, such as Colorado at tier 7 and the Izumo at tier 9.
5. The cruiser line can best be described mediocre at most metrics. The IJN CA line is in general better in terms of damage and XP, quite possibly due to its lower gun arc and torpedoes. This performance is somewhat let down by Ibuki, but the Zao is again very solid in terms of damage and XP. The USN CA line on the other hand, flounders in terms of xp and damage between tier 6 - 9, only performing slightly better than its DD counterpart. In fact, the tier 9 Baltimore has lower average damage than the Fletcher. This is somewhat improved at tier 10 with Des Moines, however its average damage is 30% lower compared to Zao. On the other hand, the winrate of Des Moines is higher than Zao by 5.5%, possibly by decapping or AA coverage of its teammates.
6. The tier 7 can be considered as a "block" tier, with ships statistically underperforming or offering no improvement in terms of xp and damage compared to its predecessors. This include nagato, pensacola, both DDs, and the infamous Colorado.
So the hierarchy of the ship lines for power grinders, statpadders, and team players is in general the same:
IJN CV = USN CV > IJN BB = USN BB > IJN CA > USN CA > IJN DD = USN DD
1. CV (both lines, depending on tier)
2. BB (both lines, depending on tier)
3. IJN CA
4. USN CA
5. DD (both tier, almost equally underpowered)
Whether this is a bug or a feature, only Wargaming knows. The coming patch most likely rebalance these ships, so we will see .
+1 if you think this is useful, and more detailed analysis by others would be welcome.